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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

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Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#271

Post by tsycho »

vincnetas wrote: post #79

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

I have the opposite take/hope.

Self driving buses will be such a boon for public transportation. Now you can have 24 hour buses, that operate on holidays as well, or even dynamic, short term routes based on demand (eg: after a concert or sports event), without being dependent on the availability of pre-allocated human drivers.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#272

Post by [deleted] »

jefftk wrote: post #263
shkkmo wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That 'level 3' is still basically lane keeping and auto cruise control, the driver still has to be ready to immediately takeover, if you don't the car will stop in it's current lane with it's blinkers on. This is about the peak of what you can get with automated lane keeping and braking. I don't see any route from this point to anything like level 4.

"Immediately" can mean a bunch of different things in a driving context! Here it means "within ten seconds". Which is both short and long: it's long enough that many of the things you might want to do that take your attention are fine (reading, watching a movie, working) but not long enough that you can sleep. > This is about the peak of what you can get with automated lane keeping and braking. Are you saying that wi…

[deleted]

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#273

Post by renegade-otter »

asah wrote: post #118
renegade-otter wrote: post #39

New York City is not going to see robo taxis for a very, very long time. We are just now catching up to the rest of the cities in terms of how garbage is collected, after about a hundred years.

Sadly I agree: NYC users will trash the cars.

It's not just that - it's a crazy city and we all jaywalk. No automated vehicle can handle NYC, barring dedicated streets (which I feel like is what will happen).

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#274

Post by jvanderbot »

shkkmo wrote: post #260
jefftk wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I find it hard to believe that the Tesla and Auto Manufacturer positions aren’t knowingly deceptive. The auto manufacturer approach is also showing progress. In CA and NV you can buy and operate a Mercedes with Drive Pilot, which is Level 3 certified. In the right (very restrictive conditions which essentially come down to "sitting in highway traffic on your commute") you legally do not have to pay attention to the…

That 'level 3' is still basically lane keeping and auto cruise control, the driver still has to be ready to immediately takeover, if you don't the car will stop in it's current lane with it's blinkers on. This is about the peak of what you can get with automated lane keeping and braking. I don't see any route from this point to anything like level 4.

> level 3 is still basically ...

well yeah, that is the definition of level 3. That's not going to change.

They are limited by:

> Our technology relies on a digital high-definition map that provides a 3D image of the road and the surroundings with information on road geometry, route characteristics, traffic signs and special traffic events

IMHO Tesla's "F--- it all just use NN" approach does get around the pre-generated 3D map requirement. Even if it is not much more than Level 3.5 at the moment. Pretty funny to see it accelerate to 65mph in a parking lot b/c it thought it was on the nearby highway though.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#275

Post by pmg101 »

bagels wrote: post #67
ok_dad wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a human I can look at their face to see that they see me. How do I know a robot sees me? Do they have indications that say “I see you and won’t drive” like a driver looking at you in the face and waving?

Drivers can stare right at you as they run you over. Believing you have eye contact does not prevent you from being run over.

Anything "can" happen. But having driven and cycled many thousands of miles I'm convinced the probability of being run down/driven into by someone who has made eye contact is a lot lower than by someone who has not, so eye contact is a useful signal. Like GP I'd be happier if robotaxis could not only sense me but also send me a signal to inform me they had (beyond just changing their driving behaviour, although that is in itself a useful signal too of course.)

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#276

Post by [deleted] »

arconis987 wrote: post #125
jseliger wrote: post #3

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many…

I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few time…

[deleted]

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#278

Post by Mashimo »

tialaramex wrote: post #246
Mashimo wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory you could also hack the many self driving trains that exists around the globe.

Two things about the self-driving trains make that even less appealing than a Waymo 1. They're mostly even more local. The Waymo Driver is in your car, the "driver" for say a DLR train is inside the train too. Unlike Waymo they aren't running multiple live feeds to remote oversight, even the emergency human intervention is literally on board with you. There's somebody wearing a uniform telling those tourists that no,…

> so you can't use a "hacked" train to hurt anybody except its passengers or maybe, in some cases, passengers on a nearby train.

Yes, is that not enough?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#279

Post by bsimpson »

Staple_Diet wrote: post #153
arconis987 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few time…

>Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Oh, I disagree, this is something I observe and in fact do myself quite a lot. We all run it through our minds which rout…

This tracks with how the messaging about Waymo has changed.

Early on, they had those concept cars that looked like they belonged at Disneyland or in a Chevron commercial. Then, they started modding off-the-shelf cars at talking up the Waymo Driver. I think at some point they decided their core competence would be self-driving specifically, leaving the "car of the future" bit to traditional car companies.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#280

Post by everforward »

mgiannopoulos wrote: post #251
swsieber wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, if you go to page 1 of the article you find this: > During a 45-minute test drive in a Tesla Model X, I had to intervene twice to correct mistakes by the FSD software. In contrast, I rode in driverless Waymo vehicles for more than two hours and didn’t notice a single mistake. That seems pretty significant.

A 45’ drive is not sufficient data for a serious review.

It is if it disengages or requires intervention twice. The major players are at tens of thousands of miles between disengagement. We’re talking days or weeks of non-stop driving without disengagements.
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