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Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

today.oregonstate.edu

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Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#271

Post by card_zero »

deelowe wrote: post #8
waihtis wrote: post #4

Can we soon start talking about the largest elephant in the room - China and their global junk manufacturing industry - seeing how China commits approximately the same amount of CO2 into the atmosphere as the United States, India, the EU and Russia combined? Global top polluters: China, more than 14 million tons of CO2 United States, 6 million tons of CO2 India, 3.5 million tons of CO2 European Union, 3.4 million ton…

Should the conversation be production or consumption? Who's really to blame?

The people in control of emissions policies.

1. Governments.

2. In functioning democracies, voters.

And yes, production.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#272

Post by RHSman2 »

jeromegv wrote: post #118
aurareturn wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 is very real #2 is warmongering #3 will be solved by human ingenuity I have a more positive outlook. :)

> #3 will be solved by human ingenuity It already started, billions of dollars in losses, with no real solution in sight.

Does money matter when we are all dead from a lack of oxygen?

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#273

Post by alfor »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

CO2: slow, decades, centuries

AI: fast, month to years and exponential

Nuclear: risky but has been with us for 70 years already

Conclusion: climate change is not a real concern, tech will improve so much in the next decade as to make all our assumptions obsolete.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#274

Post by DFHippie »

GenerWork wrote: post #245
Symmetry wrote: post #239

With each new IPCC report the chances of us keeping global warming below 1.5 C become more and more remote as emissions are locked in. But at the same time the really bad scenarios where we go well over 4 C also become more remote. Every half degree is worse than the last and each is worth righting for but it does look like our civilization will make it through this intact, even if not all people individually.

>it does look like our civilization will make it through this intact Has anybody ever seriously believed that we wouldn't make it through? This just seems like an alarmist take to me.

Here's a paradox. If people assume you are alarmist and discount everything you say -- "Oh, you way we need 100. I assume therefore that we only need 20. Here are 20." -- you need to be alarmist to get them to react appropriately. Then they attribute your exaggeration to your own deficiency, not your reaction to theirs.

Anyway, that's a general observation, not a claim that any particular position is alarmist.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#275

Post by RHSman2 »

rdlecler1 wrote: post #130
hsavit1 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t understand the enormous immediate risk of climate change if you think that AGI is a comparable risk. Climate change is now and is killing people every day

Nature is out to kill us. We’re doing a far better job in this fight than we ever have. I’d rather deal with problem of climate change than the problems of our ancestors.

Btw, we are nature, so you are right. We are the problem.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#276

Post by duozerk »

blueflow wrote: post #147
lesuorac wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh geeze, that graph is really concerning. We're approaching temperatures where humans weren't living!

People live in Australia right now. And Morocco!

Giving you the benefit of the doubt you're not trolling, it seems you're laboring under the belief that, say, "2C of warming" means it'll always be 2C hotter where people live.

It does not. It means the mean will be at +2C. At this level of warming, we'd see crazy +15C / -15C swings regularly in many areas, often in a matter of days. It means plants that have started growing in earnest suddenly are in the midst of serious frost, killing them (something we're already seeing in my country in the EU, regularly). It means potentially many climate tripwires being triggered, too.

+2C is hell for tens, possibly hundreds of millions of people. And we're likely not stopping there.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#277

Post by AnimalMuppet »

mataslauzadis wrote: post #6

The title is misleading, the article does not claim the current rise is “natural”, they just compared it to prehistoric records which were natural

Two possible takes on "natural":

1. They may mean "in nature", that is, not inside a building, and not even in a city (both of which would tend to give higher numbers).

2. They may mean "using something in nature as a measuring method" - in this case, Antarctic ice.

I agree that it's a confusing/misleading term.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#278

Post by trashtester »

duozerk wrote: post #261
trashtester wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't seem to agree with IPCC predictions. What's your source?

Despite the IPCC being very conservative/optimistic in their scenarios, this is in fact in line with their reports; admittedly my comment above might be badly worded - when I said "near-term", I meant "in the upcoming two centuries or so". The IPCC reports say we might reach 4C, 5C or even more; based on the historical record, such a major change in such a short time - several orders of magnitude faster than previous…

There is lots of space on earth that would be a lot more hospitable to humans if 5C warmer. Like the central eurasian steppe.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#279

Post by _djo_ »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #268
_djo_ wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m saying that before very long China will emit more per capita than the US does too, because US emissions per capita keep falling while China’s keep skyrocketing. So, no, even when you take population into account China is a bad emitter and not doing nearly enough to invest in decarbonising their economy in the same way the US and EU have.

China is doing a lot to decarbonise its economy, probably more than anyone, and is still poorer than the US. Again, you also need to take into account that the US and EU have outsourced emissions to China, which needed that to develop. Still the US emit a huge amount per capita so it's disingenuous so claim that China is a bad emitter, which feels like the US is trying too hard to deflect.

They’re clearly not doing more than anyone given that their emissions rate per capita and as a proportion of industrial output keeps climbing.

Claiming the US and EU ‘outsourced’ emissions to China is an overly simplistic view, and one that ignores the way China developed its own industry and targeted the developing world as a market for its goods long before US and EU companies outsourced en masse.

China now emits more than 60% as much per capita as the US, where thirty years ago it was more like 5%. In fact, China’s emissions have been so high in the past thirty years that their total emissions are now also up to more than half of all US emissions since 1850.

So, yes, China is a bad emitter and has already contributed more to global warming than anyone other than the US. What’s more, their emissions growth rate remains unsustainably high.

Also, none of what I’ve been saying is about deflecting blame from the US. It’s had a huge part to play in global warming too, and needs to do a lot more.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#280

Post by graeme »

feverzsj wrote: post #53

Climate change is unavoidable. People should start moving to highland now.

This is often said in the sense that “we shouldn’t try to stop it we should just adapt”

No one ever thinks of ports. Imagine rebuilding all port infrastructure every 5-10 years.

Move to highlands all you want but simply giving up is not likely to be cheaper.

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