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Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

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Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#271

Post by fireant »

gotstad wrote: post #257
berkle4455 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s a reflection of earnings potential. If nvidia can average 50% Y/Y earnings growth for the next 5 years, and stock price remains flat, that 223 falls to 30.

It is a reflection of exactly that, but this completely dismissed all the risks: - Maybe new ml-tech is invented that does not require as heavy equipment. - Maybe AI does not grow as fast as expected. - Maybe a competitor comes along and pricing comes under pressure. - Maybe supply chain issues.

You can easily make maybes in the other direction too - maybe they maintain their absolute market dominace, like Intel for years and years. Maybe they come with a technology jump that will be hard to beat for a long time, like M1. We are probably in the early adopter stage of current AI too.

Predicting the future is hard. Stock prices are based on extrapolated current information and mostly hype.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#272

Post by senttoschool »

orlp wrote: post #270
senttoschool wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I didn't answer my own question because a hostile takeover of ARM can cost $70b and it doesn't guarantee that ARM would fall on its face after the acquisition because it has long-term contracts.

> a hostile takeover of ARM can cost $70b Sure, but the question was "why would Apple want to own ARM", not "is it worth the cost?" > it doesn't guarantee that ARM would fall on its face after the acquisition because it has long-term contracts Having full control of the company would guarantee that as much as any other method could by a mirroring argument, as far as I can see.

Sure, what other imaginary ways for Apple to destroy the competition do you have? Maybe buy Samsung and destroy the Galaxy brand? Buy Google and destroy Android?

Let us know what other genius ways you can think of.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#273

Post by mattmanser »

dazc wrote: post #144
mattmanser wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot more mistakes made by Thatcher than that. We're now in the absurd situation where 4 out of 6 power generating companies are foreign owned and the Japanese own our chip manufacturer. All because of her policies that originally envisioned that the share holding would be by the British public, not foreigners. And the latest scandal is that our water companies are dumping ridiculous amounts of sewage into our water…

We've had a few Prime Ministers since Thatcher, was her reach so powerful that she could prevent them from doing anything about this? I recall Blair saying he regretted not doing enough about energy security when he was in power, I don't recall him blaming Thatcher? Brown expands nuclear ambitions (2008): The prime minister said that with oil prices soaring, it was time to be "more ambitious" for nuclear plans... htt…

Well, yes. Thatcher had a long tenure, a strong majority and enacted sweeping, long-lasting changes.

Blair was the only other recent politician with similar power. He was actually a fan of privatisation and deregulation (and still is, if you read recent interviews).

And recent governments don't even want to fix it, the status quo benefits their rich donors, even if it's massively hurting Britain's long-term prosperity. You've also got a significant section of the Tory party that still believe in the thoroughly discredited neoliberalism Thatcher followed, as seen by Liz Truss' disastrous tenure.

I'm not a Thatcher hater, but there were a lot of negatives as well as positives.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#274

Post by senttoschool »

joelthelion wrote: post #174
kmlx wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's generally not a good business to invest in. i agree. > Arm reported $524 million in net income on $2.68 billion in revenue in its fiscal 2023, which ended in March i find the current valuation ludicrous, and it seems like it's pushed more by Softbank's Vision Fund than a firm grasp in reality.

If you think about it, should any of the major players buy ARM and shut it down to the competition, the other players would be in deep trouble (Samsung, Apple, AWS, Google all depend fairly deeply on ARM). That has the potential to drive valuation up a bit, no?

The strength of ARM is that it's universal. If you shut down ARM to the public, then they will switch to RIS-V and suddenly, software will no longer support ARM.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#275

Post by tchaffee »

jkaplowitz wrote: post #269
tchaffee wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long-term disability insurance policy It eventually runs out. Medical bankruptcy is pretty widespread in the US.

It eventually runs out, yes, but the good long-term disability policies last until retirement age, when social security retirement benefits kick in. You may be confusing it with a short-term disability policy, which is more common, or with mediocre long-term policies. Medical bankruptcy is indeed pretty widespread in the US, but not among people with Facebook or Google benefits, not even those with career-ending disa…

> Medical bankruptcy is indeed pretty widespread in the US, but not among people with Facebook or Google benefits.

That's interesting. What's your data source showing this outcome?

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#276

Post by jkaplowitz »

tchaffee wrote: post #275
jkaplowitz wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It eventually runs out, yes, but the good long-term disability policies last until retirement age, when social security retirement benefits kick in. You may be confusing it with a short-term disability policy, which is more common, or with mediocre long-term policies. Medical bankruptcy is indeed pretty widespread in the US, but not among people with Facebook or Google benefits, not even those with career-ending disa…

> Medical bankruptcy is indeed pretty widespread in the US, but not among people with Facebook or Google benefits. That's interesting. What's your data source showing this outcome?

I don’t have statistical data, but I have worked at one of those companies in the past and am familiar with the caliber of compensation and benefits, so I’m generalizing from firsthand knowledge.

Honestly, even the comp allows building savings so rapidly that it helps a lot even before considering the benefits - and one of the benefits, at least at Google, was by far the best 401(k) plan I’ve ever heard of, including allowing less common options in the law which most plans don’t want the administrative hassle of allowing, and lower expenses than retail investing. So personal wealth (and therefore defense against high medical bills) grows really fast at those companies, and then the benefits most allow the employees not to spend those savings on medical costs.

Dismiss my assertions if you like, since they indeed aren’t statistically proved. But I don’t think there’s likely to exist public statistical data either proving or disproving my claim, so assertions like mine are the best we have. Any private data that might exist with sufficiently tailored scope would be kept within the HR department of Facebook or Google, and I’ve never seen it.

I should also probably clarify that I’m talking about US technical or managerial/executive full-time employees and not, say, someone who works in a warehouse shipping Google Store phone purchases, or employees with a foreign comp and benefits package.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#278

Post by tchaffee »

jkaplowitz wrote: post #276
tchaffee wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Medical bankruptcy is indeed pretty widespread in the US, but not among people with Facebook or Google benefits. That's interesting. What's your data source showing this outcome?

I don’t have statistical data, but I have worked at one of those companies in the past and am familiar with the caliber of compensation and benefits, so I’m generalizing from firsthand knowledge. Honestly, even the comp allows building savings so rapidly that it helps a lot even before considering the benefits - and one of the benefits, at least at Google, was by far the best 401(k) plan I’ve ever heard of, including…

Yes, that's an assertion I would dismiss. It's easy enough to say "we don't know", and far more accurate.

Re: Arm Announces Public Filing for Proposed Initial Public Offering

#279

Post by commonlisp94 »

tchaffee wrote: post #216
commonlisp94 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he gets sick gets free healthcare Free at the cost of a significantly larger portion of his salary in tax for his entire life.

The tax differences aren't that big, and they come with other nationalized services in addition to healthcare. Per capita healthcare costs in countries with nationalized healthcare can be 50% less than in the US. So you're getting much better value for your money when you pay taxes for that healthcare. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-...

Ok, but that's a completely different argument than it being free.
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