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Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

arxiv.org

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Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#271

Post by LASR »

leptons wrote: post #214
icapybara wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A perfect understanding of something doesn't mean you can fix anything wrong with it. 3) has already happened. The AI chat bots aren't very smart, but they're clearly capable of some degree of basic reasoning.

Not sure that AI chat bots are actually reasoning in any basic way, so much as they are filtering out noise and presenting an output that might satisfy the input, but it's often quite wrong. It's still more of a parlor trick than it is intelligence or reason.

There is no difference between simulated reasoning and reasoning.

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#272

Post by isaacfung »

bretpiatt wrote: post #170
ChuckMcM wrote: post #129

For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…

1) Subset breakthrough here potentially related to cancer, we'll see how the peer review and evolution to becoming an available standard of care goes. City of Hope scientists develop targeted chemotherapy able to kill all solid tumors in preclinical research https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/997141

A few weeks ago, there was news that some Harvard MIT researchers had discovered a chemical cocktail that can reverse aging. https://news.yahoo.com/harvard-mit-scientists-claim-chemical...

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#273

Post by zargon »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #200
a_bonobo wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a wonderful paper on 1) from a few years ago: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/jo... >Could a Neuroscientist Understand a Microprocessor? >We show that the [neuroscience experimental] approaches reveal interesting structure in the data but do not meaningfully describe the hierarchy of information processing in the microprocessor. This suggests current analytic approaches in neuroscien…

Nothing in biology is as regular and systematic as a microprocessor. Scientists study biology using round-about approaches because there is nothing else available.

This fact only makes the problem even worse.

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#274

Post by holtkam2 »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #129

For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…

1. Cure for aging 2. AGI exists and ends up being somehow, unexpectedly easy to control 3. Russia / China / North Korea eventually become democratic

Some of the “good” black swans at the top of my mind…

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#275

Post by adrianmonk »

abnry wrote: post #210
marginalia_nu wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why are't more labs outside China making LK-99 and publish videos? Good rigorous science takes time to produce. It can take anywhere between several months to a year or more, and the career implications for rushing something out that is later found lacking is not great.

> the career implications for rushing something out that is later found lacking is not great. On a tangent, this idea of reputation keeps on coming up in this whole discussion and I am burdened by it in a way I don't fully understand. The way people have talked, if this LK-99 doesn't work out, then it is almost as if those who published this did something _morally_ wrong. Well, morally wrong is not quite true, but th…

A scientist's career depends on their reputation. For them to have the best opportunities, they need everyone to have the highest respect for the quality of their work. If they damage their reputation, it could ruin everything they've spent decades working toward.

Of course they care about science itself, but there's a limit to what risks they'll be willing to take when it affects them personally.

For people with a relatively low reputation (or no reputation, i.e. unknown), taking a risk is not a bad move. They have less opportunity, and there's a chance the risk might pay off and boost their reputation.

For people whose reputation is already good, the risk is less worth it. They don't stand to gain as much, and they could lose a lot. So they're less likely to do it.

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#276

Post by cezart »

nindalf wrote: post #267
someplaceguy wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.

Auctions, sanitary towels, retirement, banking, disposable razor, sewing machine, canned food, interchangeable parts, antibiotics, solar cells, postage stamp, light bulb, pencil, air conditioning, insurance, dwarf wheat, spreadsheet, cold chain, double entry book-keeping, S-bend, infant formula, clocks, public key cryptography, passports, batteries, printing press, video games, GPS, contraceptive pill, shipping conta…

This reads like a list of technologies from the game civilization :)

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#277

Post by [deleted] »

someplaceguy wrote: post #141
ChuckMcM wrote: post #129

For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…

It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.

[deleted]

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#278

Post by asadm »

holtkam2 wrote: post #274
ChuckMcM wrote: post #129

For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…

1. Cure for aging 2. AGI exists and ends up being somehow, unexpectedly easy to control 3. Russia / China / North Korea eventually become democratic Some of the “good” black swans at the top of my mind…

Democracy is a diversion technique honestly. “Rulers” are always a few people/corps and the fate of the people depends on them.

Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99

#280

Post by Smoosh »

holtkam2 wrote: post #274
ChuckMcM wrote: post #129

For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…

1. Cure for aging 2. AGI exists and ends up being somehow, unexpectedly easy to control 3. Russia / China / North Korea eventually become democratic Some of the “good” black swans at the top of my mind…

I'm unsure if we want people living forever. While disease, illness, and senility are terrible things, as soon as people can live forever we will have eternal dictatorships (or people trying for it) as well as other questions of perpetual inequality. "Death renders all equal".
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