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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

economist.com

271–273 of 273 posts

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is continue killing trillions of animals a year and polluting the air, water and soil until our biosphere is no longer suitable for many species including humans. At that point we can forget about exploring the stars or whatever.

Degrowth is death. We must adapt or die - this rule of evolution still applies to all of us. Less people is bad. All of us matter but only as long as humanity continues. Degrowth is stagnation. We must survive tho - even at the expenses of the Earth if that is what it takes. We are the highest evolutionary life this planet has produced - the only life able to exploit all other life. The entire purpose of evolution co…

> Degrowth is death

There are currently about 8 billion of us. At some point in the past there were 4 billion of us (Bard tells me the population reached 4Billion on April 11, 1974). We're we somehow worse off when there were 1/2 as many of us on earth? Would we somehow be worse off if we slowly (like over the course of 100 years) returned back to that number? I fail to see how it would be problematic. Somehow we survived and got what we needed to get done in 1974 with only 4B people. If we were to settle back down to that number and stabilize there why would that be a problem? Or, how about stabilizing at 6B?

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#272

As the article points out, having a choice, and not being pressured by society into having kids one doesn't want, certainly is a good thing. On the other hand, as the article notes: > [...] cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages [...] the financial aspect is a huge blocker for those who want to have children. We live in a world where the majority of young p…

I don’t buy the hypothesis that it’s simply lack of means driving the lack of fertility. Poorer countries and poorer times both came hand in hand with higher fertility than we see today. My hypothesis isn’t that it’s not affordable, it’s that people don’t stand to personally benefit from having kids, and birth control is available, so they don’t. If you‘re willing to tolerate any quality of life, well you might just…

It's not about an objective level of means, but more about one's relative standing and its security.

Take a modern young couple in a place like NYC. Having to work incredibly hard in an uncertain job - both of them - never too far from being unable to pay rent (or mortgage, although that now tends to come later in life). Meanwhile bombarded by ads of all kinds (and people they see around, both in real life and online) to have consumption of a certain level just to maintain the status quo of their social standing.

Add to that a complete lack of positive vision for the 'developed' world but plenty of negative ones. A complete lack of any sort of utopian thinking. Including the fact that whoever does end up having children will end up with those children later having to support all the pensioners.

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So in a way, the poor are more secure in their poverty than the young people in the middle, and therefore they procreate. So do the more wealthy that are secure in their wealth.

Re: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being pregnant, birthing kids, breastfeeding them, and raising them to age ~3 sucks for a woman. It could just be that evolution did not bestow humans with a sufficiently easy and risk free process to reproduce, hence the price women demand is too high (in an environment where women can actually price their sacrifice in birthing and raising children due to achieving in financial independence).

So, is emancipation to blame?

Why "blame"? Having more children is not somehow a noble good. Unless you're one of those "every sperm is sacred" types.
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