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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#271

Post by frostburg »

time_to_smile wrote: post #178
oxff wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not recommending to have a nuclear war over who gets to collect vodka taxes in some East European town. I am pointing out that these people let moral foreign policy run their entire trade block and foreign policy choices, and not a cold rational calculus of any kind. All the self-sanctions have come to nothing: they have not and will not materially affect the end result of the war. They've made me, as a citizen i…

> who gets to collect vodka taxes in some East European town. Is that what you think Russian expansion in those regions is about? It's not. Just like the current military expansion, those conflicts have been about acquiring and controlling natural gas and oil reserves in those regions. This entire conflict has been about energy and it's been going on for the past decade or so because of relatively recent discoveries…

Those extreme measures would get all the leadership killed or hiding in bunkers forever (and I wouldn't bet on their lifespan in the bunker). There's plenty of graft still to be had in a weakened, declining Russia, on the other hand.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#272

Post by an-unknown »

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #202
olivermarks wrote: post #33

https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactor... I'm on the fence about an all electric future- we simply don't have the grid capacity in most parts of the world - but the Germans and French who control the EU should have been developing SMNR years ago. They are now in an energy checkmate situation with a hostile country with an economy the size of Italy. Not clever,

I don't think it's fair to blame France, they have long been pushing for nuclear as evidenced by their energy sources being hugely reliant on domestic nuclear rather than foreign energy. It's really been the German greens hellbent on holding back nuclear across the EU.

> I don't think it's fair to blame France, they have long been pushing for nuclear as evidenced by their energy sources […]

… and right now you can see how "successful" they are with their nuclear power plants: so "successful" that they have to import energy because a lot of their nuclear power plants are currently offline, due to unexpected problems related to safety. Even better, the current hot weather also causes serious problems and reduces power output.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#273

Post by btilly »

mythrwy wrote: post #198
excieve wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this. It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

Genocide has a specific definition, and Russian actions meet that definition. This is genocide, and it is immoral for you to avoid accepting that.

The accepted definition is in Article 2 of

https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-...

Russian propaganda amply demonstrates their intent. The physical part is also well-established. For example Russian filtration camps have been use to "process" then relocate over a million Ukrainians. Including over 250,000 children who will be raised with propaganda about not being Ukrainian.

You may prefer mealymouthed substitutes for calling a spade a spade. But I condemn you for normalizing genocide by refusing to use its proper name.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#274

Post by hans1729 »

bell-cot wrote: post #217
Gravityloss wrote: post #23

Unfortunately Brunsbüttel terminal only finally got the go ahead in January 2022 and it will take 3.5 years to build. It's anyway a good alternative source. https://www.gem.wiki/Brunsb%C3%BCttel_LNG_Terminal Increasing insulation and installing and building more heat pumps are obvious ways to save on gas. Italy used some big EU subsidies to pay 100% of people's home and house renovations. Would something like that be…

The old cynic in me wonders what it would take, for Germany to care about building major new infrastructure fast . Asteroid Dino-Doom 2.0 headed straight for Dortmund, and the needed interceptor rockets stacked like logs outside the barely-started launch facility?

When covid hit, governments across Germany realized wait, we need videoconferencing for students!. For the prime ministers and their ministers of education, this meant they could either shine in comparison to the others, or the opposition would rip them apart in the next election.

Suddenly: money everywhere, zero red tape, worry about compliance later, get it done now.

So, if the political will is there, things are possible, and I can easily imagine our country going a lot harder than that if the danger was imminent enough.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#275

Post by _ph_ »

mythrwy wrote: post #198
excieve wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this. It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

The Russians pretty much killed a lot of the population of the occupied territories, which hadn't fled in time. A lot of the rest has been abducted to Russia, possibly Siberia.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#276

Post by bilbo0s »

usrn wrote: post #182
akmarinov wrote: post #67

Break out the coal, boys. It's not like the US is in any way trying to be green. Honestly, China is Earth's best shot at climate change.

China is 1) Not self sufficient, they have to import food from the US 2) Burning nearly a million more cubic feet of coal per capita than the US does (and they have way more people, so that means they're really burning far far more coal) Honestly I'm not sure how you thought that made any sense. EDIT: (out of comment quota) >China also installs more renewables than anyone else I'm sure that's great for the companies…

China imports food from the US.

China does not have to import food from the US.

In all honesty, China and the US are unique nations in that they don't have to import anything from anyone. It's politically and financially convenient for them to import the things they import, so they do. But they are both perfectly capable of meeting their own needs with domestic production if the issue is pressed. Even where they don't currently manufacture a thing, they're both able to ramp up manufacturing of that thing in a timeframe unthinkable for other nations.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#277

Post by excieve »

mythrwy wrote: post #198
excieve wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this. It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

They're actually quite explicit in what the goal is, at least in propaganda towards the internal audience[0]. If one does equate a Ukrainian to a "nazi" that must be exterminated, burns this into the minds for years, builds a chauvinistic version of history to frame it into then the rest comes out naturally — don't even need an order.

The behaviour of the Russian army towards the non-combatants so far has been aligned to what you could expect of this concept — mass murder, rape as a weapon, "filtration" camps, forced deportations, burnt ground tactics. These are not singular cases, it's the pattern everywhere the Russian army is or has been active.

It's not even the first attempt in the history — the last one was less than a century ago.

[0]: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#278

Post by frostburg »

oxff wrote: post #236
bamboozled wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I stated that the actions of EU (self-sanctions) have not, and will not affect whether or no Russia takes Ukraine though, this was the entire point of my post. It is part of what makes them so absurd. What credentials, intel do you have to back this up? I've heard a lot of evidence to support the contrary. The sanctions are working, Russia is just telling us they're not and that's what the rooble is so highly value…

I am not credentialed, I am a Bad Person (I have my own Thoughts); as for "intel", I have none either. I find these given cause-and-effect chains in defense of the sanctions and other actions largely to be magical thinking and hysterical (they'd be less so if they were actually backed by the proof-of-work of deploying to protect Ukraine). Like, I don't care about the Ruble in itself. I was told that it would be flatt…

Russia can't build its own most advanced weapon designs, tank production lines are stopped and they're down to using non g-tolerant consumer chips in missiles, greatly degrading their reliability (you might note how their random long range terror bombing of civilian targets is doing absolutely nothing to win them the war, while their supply depots are blowing up).

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#279

Post by pumnikol »

European LNG spot market prices went up by much more than an order of magnitude between Summer 2020 and Spring 2022. They also went up for other regions while Russia has no problems selling gas outside of Europe, even with steep mark-ups. It pains me to write this, but Russia is coming out on top because of Europe cutting itself off from her gas.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#280

Post by bonzini »

theplumber wrote: post #211
bonzini wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italy is a bit less affected because it's closer to Algeria. However we also had politicians trying to stop the pipeline from Turkey to Italy.

Turkey may start acting lunatic as well.

Sure but Norway is the only EU state that has a decent amount of gas or oil, and at least Turkey is on the NATO side. Politically it's messy, but at least militarily it's fine.
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