When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

In the short term: I don't see what the problem is with growing debt at this point.

Oh and, btw, the FED will never repay its balance sheet. It's just not going to happen, ever, under any circumstances.

Which gets me to my, seemingly rather unique, position: this is not a financial crisis (at least not yet). There's problems yes, but there's also a lot of money to solve them. Which means they will get solved, quickly. And just because we're recovering from the mother of all supply crunches and the numbers are going down to readjust, we see a lot of models crying "recession". There is no real recession. There's a recession in money paid for things. There's no recession in physical goods being distributed, quite the opposite. People aren't suddenly vastly more indebted (like in 2008) than they can be.

There was such a big problem with supply and demand that when we all collectively decided to take away to artificial roadblocks, which turned out to be the point some idiot Russian decides to use to ... and supply and demand had such a big and such a wide ranging adjustment to make that it took the the law of supply and demand ~12-18 months to adjust prices, of which some 6-8 months are still in the future. Now supplier prices are adjusting down, not for housing, not for finance, but for everything else, and everybody cries recession. Wrong. Supply just shot through the roof and demand is actually rising. The same refrain is seen everywhere. Prices for X ROCKETED up, and are coming back down rather quickly. Take your pick cars, flights, food, chips, ... There are confusing factors, such as with housing: people have been using SUBSIDISED money for housing and this is being wound down, people are getting kicked out of the housing they're in. So ... lots of complaints. But this is actually an indication, of course, of too much demand, not too little. Too much demand, too much people yelling here's money, now give me ... This shouldn't lead to a recession!

Of course my problem is ... I'm "fighting the FED". The FED disagrees with me. Of course. I'm fighting JUST the Fed at this point. I'm still on the side of the ECB, BOJ and PBOC ...

(1) People were deeply and extremely risk-averse coming out of the 2008 crisis. And now we are _starting_ to see the other end of that spectrum. However, we are still far from the heights/throes of the dot-com boom. Those were some insane times when nothing even mattered.

(2) But keep in mind, the main driver of global economy is still increasing standard of living and middle class. And that’s far from over. We are still roughly 50% into land grab.

(3) If current pace of inflation persists, then you want to be in equities chasing cash flow in enterprises with pricing power. What you don’t want is to stay in cash. It appears counterintuitive because of all the things we experienced in 2000 and 2008. A vast majority of investors still base investment decisions with those two crises in mind. It’s a significant handicap.