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The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

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Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#271

Post by mensetmanusman »

munk-a wrote: post #111
batch12 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it has worked until they have zero covid. Maybe a silver lining from this will be people resisting anything happening they perceive as mistreatment from their government.

If people weren't so resistant to government policy we might have seen something close to zero covid rolled out in the US and, instead of the US being the locus of disease for a number of years, we might have actually ended this pandemic with a decisive but painful quarantine - instead we'll continue in this state of psuedo quarantine for who knows how many years... how we comport ourselves today might just be the ne…

Your priors have expired.

It’s impossible to have zero Covid unless you vaccinate all mammals in the world.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#272

Post by natch »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266
natch wrote: post #171

The urge to exert authority that the author speaks of in the beginning is disturbing. Having seen how they do it in China first hand, I am horrified to imagine the fate that awaits Taiwan if China ever takes over. The pent up (falsely based, imho) anger amongst PRC people toward Taiwan and its friendly people is difficult to overstate. If this (Shanghai) is how they treat their own locals, imagine how they will treat…

We can already look to Hong Kong for that.

I suspect Taiwan is going to be another level. In Hong Kong the transition was planned and executed over a number of years (decades even) with cooperation from most local authorities and evolutionary changes continuing gradually over many years.

In Taiwan it could be sudden and brutal.

If you've ever seen truly country people from the inner provinces… I mean the most country-bumpkin (土 / "earthy") type of them, not the ones you meet from big cities, and think about how the PLA is partially made up of some of these people, the stories about Russian soldiers entering Ukraine and being amazed to find that regular households have microwaves, blenders, and nutella… start to give a picture of what kind of soldiers will be blanketing Taiwan in the event of a large invasion. It will not be like Hong Kong at all.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#273

Post by nradov »

whimsicalism wrote: post #265
nradov wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just nonsense completely divorced from scientific reality. Even a strict quarantine wouldn't have sufficed to stop a highly contagious respiratory virus with multiple animal reservoirs. It's now clear that the best strategy would have been to focus on protecting the most vulnerable, as recommended by leading experts back in 2020. https://gbdeclaration.org/

WWe have successfully eradicated SARS, a respiratory virus, in the past. If we had actually responded faster we could have done the same. China has averted 3 million deaths and most of the country has been free of lockdown for the last 2 years once they got the virus under control. That is "scientific reality". Claims that China's numbers are problematic, while probably true, are not the same as saying that China has…

We didn't eradicate SARS-CoV. It died out on its own. Due to the high R0 and animal reservoirs there is no way to eradicate SARS-CoV-2, or even keep it permanently under control. It will be around forever, just like the other 4 endemic human coronaviruses.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/94646

The only human virus we have eradicated is smallpox. And that only worked because there were no animal reservoirs, and the vaccines were fairly effective at preventing infection and transmission. That situation does not obtain with SARS-CoV-2.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#274

Post by nradov »

sofixa wrote: post #229
nradov wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No that's incorrect. You appear to have made a category error. Protecting against a virus isn't a valid reason for violating the fundamental human right of free assembly. And no, there is no human right to be protected against the risk of disease.

> Human rights include the right to life and liberty Literally the first one is to life. https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/human-rights#:~:text=Hum... .

Everyone dies. No one has the right to live forever. We could probably prevent a lot of deaths from influenza if we imposed permanent lockdowns on everyone forever. But there's more to life than avoiding death.

And besides, the UN is a joke. It's a nice little debating society, but otherwise in the real world no one takes it seriously.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#275

Post by mensetmanusman »

bandushrew wrote: post #122
version_five wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether or not global lockdowns would have worked, I prefer a world in which you can get covid to one in which the government can confine you to your house. You're welcome to move to China if you prefer the latter approach - or just confine yourself to your house yourself...

You have lived in a world in which the government can confine you to your house your entire life. Why is it only recently you have noticed?

It’s a matter of degree of truth in this case, and it is an order of magnitude or more true for China.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#276

Post by LorenPechtel »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #119
LorenPechtel wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Since the original event China has responded to Covid with aggressive ring-fencing. That can't be hidden--while there is room to fudge the numbers a little bit there could not have been a massive cover-up. Also, what we have been seeing for the last weeks should make it obvious China wasn't hiding it--because we are seeing how China responds when it is there. Unfortunately, China is stuck in zero-Covid mode…

Omicron does seem to be more contagious, but given that other regions of China have successfully contained it, not so much more contagious that strict lockdown won't work. It appears that the Shanghai 'disaster' has been caused by the typical combination of complacency and attempts to balance with business as usual.

I do agree they have had some successes against it, but there comes a point where the logistics of doing so is swamped--and I think Shanghai is past that point by now.

People are going hungry, they're going to slip out to get food.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#277

Post by kharak »

rini17 wrote: post #268
bllguo wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh please, spare me. So what did "ample opportunity to learn the lesson" mean? "Observed often enough by now," we don't need to talk any specifics, _obviously_ Western ideals are superior! End of history and all that jazz, huh? I was hoping for more critical thought when you rightly mentioned this to be a "deeply philosophical problem."

I understood parent as: The unnecessary deaths count in China since the Great Leap is obvious and provides the learning opportunities. But sadly none are taken and death toll is ongoing. But hopefully someday learning and philosophy can take place as it did in the West after the war. If I read that right, what in there is so inflamatory to you?

You got me right.

He seems to have a problem with the idea that the western world figured something out that China hasn’t (yet). Or the idea that different values cause different outcomes.

Or the issue is that I’m not making much of an argument? Seemingly implying that my conclusion is obvious. In that case, I apologise for not going into more detail here.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#278

Post by helloworld11 »

munk-a wrote: post #116
version_five wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether or not global lockdowns would have worked, I prefer a world in which you can get covid to one in which the government can confine you to your house. You're welcome to move to China if you prefer the latter approach - or just confine yourself to your house yourself...

In fact I have mostly confined myself to my house. I can work remotely and we have an income sufficient to rely on instacart and delivery for food. We go out for walks in the neighborhood but we avoid going in stores or restaurants except on rare occasions. We've taken one vacation (during the lull before omicron became a thing) and we'll try and take another vacation this summer but, otherwise, we're trying our best…

>we have an income sufficient to rely on instacart and delivery for food.

Aside from all the other self righteous defenses of authoritarian measures due to your personal, in my view health paranoid views on COVID, this section above was particularly self indulgent. Who delivers your food? Your lockdown notions don't apply to them because, "oh, but I need to have my meals"?

Also, very basic thing: a vanishingly small percentage of the world's population can afford to totally lock down at home for more than a few days. They literally need to be on the streets and among crowds nearly every single day just to barely scrape by. I live in a developing country and few things about privileged, middle class WFH-capable people's lockdown arguments gall more than this absurd accidental or willful ignorance of how 80% of the planet lives.

Finally, most of Canada's population is vaccinated. Those that aren't had every opportunity to be and simply chose not to. What credible reason is there for any continuing lockdown nonsense given this? Simple reflex? Emotional paranoia? Please explain.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#279

Post by Ericson2314 »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #256
Ericson2314 wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is true so far, but remember that pathogens do not intrinsically have fixed disease characteristics. The nature of disease is a contextual matter of both the pathogen and host populations. You have to put on your Hegel hat and really think long and hard about the ramifications of that. Examples: - mRNA vaccinated population + Omicron is not as bad - Without being surrounded by lots of ongoing chicken pox to keep…

However a virus is a delivery device that precisely codes elements for self-replication, for structural form, and for pathogenesis. This last is the intrinsic disease causing component, though exactly how badly the interaction goes for an individual is dependent on the context of their immune system and general physiology. Apparently the 1918 H1N1 influenza virus had a particularly nasty pathogenic component, that me…

particularly nasty pathogenic component for that population, yes :).

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#280

Post by qiskit »

munk-a wrote: post #125
qiskit wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I think this is the exact fear most of us have of authoritarian governments, that minority voices get silenced or worse and that justice is not equally distributed. How is that an authoritarian government problem? You do realize that minority voices get silenced in every government and justice is nowhere equally distributed. Unless you are asserting the US, Canada, Australia, etc are/were authoritarian governme…

The degree to which voices are silenced is definitely quite different. Canada has recently been having a very difficult discussion on Native American deaths and disappearances at residential schools - this is a discussion that could never happen under the Chinese government. Yes, it's wrong to say that voices are completely silenced in China and completely free in Canada - but it's pretty disingenuous to suggest they…

> Canada has recently been having a very difficult discussion on Native American deaths and disappearances at residential schools -

What difficult discussion? The natives were exterminated and have no power or recourse. How "difficult" can the discussion be when there is nothing at stake. How about this, lets have a discussion where china or russia or the UN takes half or more of canada, forms a new native nation and returns it to the native canadians. Lets see how warm canada will be to such discussions.

The only thing canada is good at is superficial virtue signaling "discussions" when there is nothing at stake.

> this is a discussion that could never happen under the Chinese government.

That's cause china didn't go to the other side of the world and exterminate a continent full of nations. What is there to discuss?

> Yes, it's wrong to say that voices are completely silenced in China and completely free in Canada - but it's pretty disingenuous to suggest they're on equal footing.

No more or less they are. There are things you'll get punished for saying in china and canada. It's disingenuous to pretend one is better than the other.

The only country in the world that is genuinely better than china, canada and everyone else when it comes to free speech is the US. But even here free speech is under attack both by internally and externally.

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