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What to know about the stock market (2007)

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Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#271

Post by gitfan86 »

Thrymr wrote: post #268
gitfan86 wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forget the stock price. Look at operating margins, operating leverage, delivery volume, trailing delivery volume growth, battery supply, dealership contracts.

> Forget the stock price. Look at operating margins, operating leverage, delivery volume, trailing delivery volume growth, battery supply, dealership contracts. All of these things can be good and the company could be set up for profitability and success, and yet the stock price is _still_ overpriced.

GM stock is current priced as 2.7 Billion dollars per Electric Vehicle sold last quarter. TSLA stock is current priced as 2.7 Million dollars per Electric Vehicle Sold last quarter.

TSLA is the "overpriced" stock?

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#272

Post by shoto_io »

choward wrote: post #187
shoto_io wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My stock advice for any rookie has always been the same: - Buy S&P ETFs, most preferably by Vanguard, because they are a non-profit and thus have very low fees - If you have a large sum of cash, go all-in immediately, don't wait for the perfect time - Now, just wait, ideally 10+ years, before looking into your account again

> Now, just wait, ideally 10+ years, before looking into your account again That might not be the best idea because of escheat. Here's a story about someone who didn't check on their stocks for years and the state claimed them. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/799345159

Good point... I meant don't touch them :)

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#273

Post by cehrlich »

lisper wrote: post #220
choward wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now, just wait, ideally 10+ years, before looking into your account again That might not be the best idea because of escheat. Here's a story about someone who didn't check on their stocks for years and the state claimed them. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/799345159

It is also wise to look at your accounts at least once a year because some of your investments might pay dividends that you have to report on your tax returns.

For most major ETFs there are accumulating versions that automatically re-invest any dividends into the ETF. A good choice for the lazy investor IMO.

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#274

Post by lisper »

cehrlich wrote: post #273
lisper wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is also wise to look at your accounts at least once a year because some of your investments might pay dividends that you have to report on your tax returns.

For most major ETFs there are accumulating versions that automatically re-invest any dividends into the ETF. A good choice for the lazy investor IMO.

You still have to pay taxes on those dividends in the year they are paid.

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#275

Post by koonsolo »

3pt14159 wrote: post #99
cehrlich wrote: post #85

This is a great article that explains markets (not just the stock market really) in an easy to understand way. The one thing I believe people should know about the stock market is: There are people with more capital, time, and knowledge than you who will consistently beat you. Picking individual investments is mostly a sucker's game. Buying tech stocks and/or crypto in the last couple of years has been a consistent e…

People keep telling me this, but I keep beating the market. It's been 20 years or so of applying very basic reasoning and getting ahead. 1. Commodities are bad long term bets because technology gets better. I remember people talking my ear off about peak oil and then the US turned into a net-exporter. Short term inelasticity, yes can sky rocket prices; but long term prices go down. 2. Physics based thinking. I knew e…

So how do you know if all of your reasoning hasn't been calculated into the price yet?

Maybe everybody knows Tesla is going to win out, therefore everybody wants it, and the price rises like crazy. And then the stock is way overpriced for what you get, and people like you still keep buying it.

There is a reason why Buffet needs to look into the numbers before deciding if something is a good buy or not. You buy underpriced, and sell overpriced. And you just cannot make that judgement without looking at the numbers.

There is another simple theory about your single stocks outperforming the index: smaller cap stocks generally outperform the index. As shown in this video, a monkey can pick stocks and outperform the index just because of this simple reason: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_3Ra-Q6vK4.

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#276

Post by kbuck »

Foivos wrote: post #203

One thing is not clear. If person A has 10 items and asks for $10 per item and person B wants only 7 items for $10 per item, what happens? Person A just sells the 7 items and then waits for somebody else to pick the remaining ones? And vice versa what happens if someone wants to buy more stocks than what is offered?

The orders are partially filled (either on the buy or sell side).

What this means is that the shares eligible to transact do so immediately, and the remaining shares sit on the order book and wait for someone to be willing to trade at that price.

There is a specific option that you can set (usually called "all or none") that will prohibit partially filling an order and only allow it to execute in entirety.

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#277

Post by gruez »

greatpostman wrote: post #267
gruez wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Keep saying this and watch your peers assets balloon in value. There’s really nothing to argue about, spreading this “I can’t beat the market mantra” is bad for everyone. While I don't doubt that you could beat the market given enough effort , I'm skeptical that you can trivially beat the market with a strategy as simple as "buy tech stocks". I'll invoke the efficient market hypothesis here: if tech stocks are expec…

Dude I used to work at a hedge fund, the whole efficient market hypothesis isn’t what you think, and it’s insane to think it means you need to buy every single stock. You’re just going to lose a bunch of money investing this way

>Dude I used to work at a hedge fund, the whole efficient market hypothesis isn’t what you think

Oh? Please elaborate.

>and it’s insane to think it means you need to buy every single stock.

US "total market" only have about 2000-3000 stocks.

>You’re just going to lose a bunch of money investing this way

How? By buying losers? By wasting money on transaction fees?

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#279

Post by bradfa »

gitfan86 wrote: post #271
Thrymr wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Forget the stock price. Look at operating margins, operating leverage, delivery volume, trailing delivery volume growth, battery supply, dealership contracts. All of these things can be good and the company could be set up for profitability and success, and yet the stock price is _still_ overpriced.

GM stock is current priced as 2.7 Billion dollars per Electric Vehicle sold last quarter. TSLA stock is current priced as 2.7 Million dollars per Electric Vehicle Sold last quarter. TSLA is the "overpriced" stock?

GM only sold a handful of EVs in the 4th quarter of 2021, I'll give you that.

But in previous quarters they sold quite a lot more EVs than they did in the 4th quarter. This dismal 4th quarter EV sales statistic was partly due to supply constraints and partly due to the Bolt battery recall.

Re: What to know about the stock market (2007)

#280

Post by koonsolo »

sdevonoes wrote: post #11

Am I the only one in HN who is not into the stock market? I live in Western Europe and I would say 75% of my acquaintances don't do stock market. People I have known in the past (old people) didn't do stock market either. They all seem to have lived a normal life (decent jobs, decent house, decent family). Nothing extravagant but they got enough money to be "happy" in life.

My parents didn't do stock market, for the simple fact that you got a nice interest from a savings account. Those times are gone now. Some people have a hard time grasping the alternatives.

Stocks are considered "risky", but if you have a 10+ years timeframe, an index fund is not risky at all.

I also have 75% of acquaintances that don't do stock market or crypto. And that's the reason why my savings are outperforming all of them.

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