To this day I still don’t understand how one can read the agile manifesto and somehow get to scrum. The whole thing is about processes, and tools (jira)… the complete opposite. The reason everyone ends up doing waterfall is that it’s not the devs who you need to convince when selling agility, is the chain of command. Being agile means having no long term plan. If the C-suite can’t handle that, you’ll never be agile.
> Being agile means having no long term plan. Bingo, and there lies its power — but only in the correct domain. For consulting, where the customer doesn’t quite understand what they need and you need to work your way forward in an exploratory fashion (and for a limited period) it’s great. And that was the environment it was designed for! You have a multi year engineering project? Really a waterfall, or a waterfall/sp…
I'm not sure a long time frame is a necessary condition for a successful waterfall project - but I am certain it is not sufficient.
What you need - long term project or not - is a rock solid understanding of business requirements. That means - no vague client demands, or startup style search for product / market fit - but a well established, and documented set of business processes that needs to be mapped to code.
I also believe such projects require a leader who has this understanding, but also a talent for product design such that they can recognise and articulate clearly how the product will meet requirements. They need to be able to convince stakeholders.
I do think such circumstances are rare for many organisations. But not so rare the prospect should be dismissed out of hand.
I agree with your final statement though I think the challenge for many orgs would be in having the self awareness to recognise which approach is best for them.