Coinbase is down for me. Gotta give it to BTC: it's a great store of value. You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.
Is it functionally different from "circuit breakers" on regulated exchanges?
Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
271–280 of 688 posts
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#272As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…
Bitcoin & Ether are both down -40% from a week to a month ago. Both of those are, in theory, large enough that investors "letting off some steam" shouldn't move them that much. If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different. Also unlike the stock market, crypto is under the delusion of being a viable currency. If USD or Euro dropped even 20% we'd start questioning if it's a recession, much le…
While we do call them crypto currencies I don’t think crypto market is really comparable to the currency market. Maybe more like a precious metals etf or something.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#273BItocin has among the worst risk-adjusted returns of any investment. I would not touch it. NASDAQ 100 and or fang portfolio way better.
There is no free lunch. Your hypothesis is fed-driven policy will continue to be effective (the easy money gravy train). It's likely a better thesis, but after a decade of great returns, people are under the illusion that the Fed has actual control of markets (they can only shape sentiment via policy).
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
10% annual is not huge at all, it would actually be on the lower end of a year that had positive gains. 10% average is what you should expect for the SP500 - and that tends to be driven by lumps, years with returns >20%. 50% is high from a historical perspective but there are plausible explanations for why it's not absurd.
I remember 7% being the historic average that all the classic investing books said. I think it's after adjusting for inflation and dividends. How are you calculating 10%?
7% is adjusted for inflation. 10% is the nominal average. An up year is commonly 10-15% with down years being more severe but less frequent.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…
> I do not understand how every time cryptocurrency comes up armchair HN users come along and comment when they, very apparently, have almost no understanding of the topic This in itself is a meme - "All criticism is ignorance!" Bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid scheme, that's true, but it has aspects of both, with its declining emission and stacked rewards for early adopters. And Bitcoin is for settlement now is i…
> The truth is that bitcoin is an instrument of speculation. Little else.
I actually agree. Bitcoin has failed. It's useless as a coin. New coins have been created to address its shortcomings. Monero seems to be the closest one to the original cryptocurrency dream of decentralized and private currency. Despite this, bitcoin is still king and there seems to be no way to dethrone it.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#276Looks like the liquidations are stopping. Funding rates are finally negative https://www.bybt.com/FundingRate I would expect the exchanges to have 'problems' while the big boys load back up for cheap. BIG shorts are closing. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDSHORTS/
ELI5?
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#277As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…
Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…
>Bitcoin pricing is on a log scale. Dropping to $36k from $50k is not a concern on this scale.
What is that even supposed to mean?
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not a Ponzi scheme because in ponzi scheme you deliberately use late investors money to pay early investors. What happens in cryptocurrency is fake-exchange scheme. Tether is a fake currency printed in unlimited way by bitfinex which is also an exchange. By pretending tethers are real dollars you create the appearance of a stronger market for cryptocurrency than actually exists. It all rests on increasing the nu…
The term you're looking for is "naturally occurring Ponzi scheme" https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/19358
Very interesting paper.
Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
I see you often comment on Bitcoin negatively, curious why?
It's a substantially-manipulated negative-sum distributed Ponzi scheme. The most blatant example of a naked emperor I've seen in my lifetime. And it consumes the energy of Argentina to achieve as much work as a Raspberry Pi.
Where else should people invest their money?
Stocks are extremely overvalued According to the buffet ratio
And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them
Real estate is extremely difficult to buy and sell. Execution is hard.
There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a stable fiat)
Do you see any better solution than crypto?