The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? • Hacker News Board

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#271

Post by didericis » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:48 PM UTC

FabHK wrote: post #220

didericis wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lean towards the lab hypothesis due to China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. The transition from arresting doctors to locking down cities doesn’t make much sense otherwise. You could argue they had motivation to arrest doctors talking about a natural infection if they thought they…

> [...] China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. I'm ambivalent about the two hypotheses, but China's early behaviour fits either, I think. I do think that the instinct of the regional bureaucracy is to control the flow of information, and punish those that proceed outside the party hie…

It’s plausible either way, and the behavior is by no means a smoking gun, but it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. I’d expect a slightly different pattern of attempting to control information if there wasn’t any connection to the lab.

The disappearance of Huang Yan Ling is another bit of evidence that pushes me towards the lab leak.

If I were to assign a percentage to it, I’d say about 60% chance lab origin is true, 40% chance natural origin is true.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#272

Post by 40four » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:49 PM UTC

rlpb wrote: post #261

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

> The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor, and then you are done. What's the reason the lab is located in that city? Is there an underlying causal connection? For example, is W…

The idea that the bat population is local to Wuhan is a misconception. The bats from which the gain of function research studies are being done were collected from Yunnan province 800 miles away, not locally in Wuhan. They still have not been able to identity any animals in the market, bats or civets, that would explain the natural spillover hypothesis.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#273

Post by FpUser » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:50 PM UTC

smcl wrote: post #111

FpUser wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"and don't pretend you 'only care about the science'." I don't. The question was did the virus come out as the result of that research or not. The answer is simple yes or no. No need to dance around.

The point is that you seem to be arriving at that yes/no answer as a result of reading the words of someone whose credibility and impartiality is in question.

Well here is surprise for you. I used to be a scientist myself. Just in a totally different area. From my experience being racist and impartiality to results in one's profession are orthogonal.

All the arguments I see so far are of "but, but he cheats on his wife" quality.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#274

Post by pclmulqdq » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:51 PM UTC

AzzieElbab wrote: post #263

mensetmanusman wrote: post #256

“ It later turned out that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the SARS2 virus had indeed escaped from research he funded, Daszak would be potentially culpable. This acute conflict of interest was not declared to the Lancet’s readers. To the contrary,…

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

Fauci and his close colleagues (including the current head of the CDC) were ardent proponents of gain of function research, and funded gain of function research at the WIV to the tune of millions of dollars.

Didn't anybody think it was weird that the head of the NIH, a research institution, not a public health institution, became the top public health communicator during COVID instead of the heads of the CDC? He had a massive conflict of interest and wanted to protect it.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#275

Post by Jeema101 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:54 PM UTC

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though.

How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there?

(Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#276

Post by TchoBeer » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:55 PM UTC

technothrasher wrote: post #219

Paradigma11 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theories are as old as humanity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conspiracy_theories What makes you think that they are a concept developed by the CIA?

Even the exact phrase "conspiracy theory" predates the CIA by at least 40 years. So it seems the poster's theory about the origin of the conspiracy theory is, reflectively, a conspiracy theory itself. Given that the CIA is so often the subject of such conspiracy theories, I suspect irony might have been employed.

Now I can't tell if the commenter legitimately thinks that no scientific mind would dismiss conspiracy theories or if they're making fun of people who want scientists to entertain conspiracy theories.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#277

Post by CuriouslyC » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:56 PM UTC

ximeng wrote: post #122

novaRom wrote: post #66

There is an interesting peer reviewed paper published last month with analysis of existing facts about the origin of covid-19. A part from their conclusion: More than a year after the initial documented cases in Wuhan, the source of SARS-CoV-2 has yet to be identified, and the search for a direct or intermediate host in nature has been so far unsuccessful. The low binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat ACE2 studied to…

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187350612... Here is a paper that states that the furin cleavage site appears naturally in a number of viruses. I looked into these lab origin theories for the furin cleavage site last year. The problem with it being a laboratory insertion was that although performing an insertion is relatively easy once you know what to insert, generally it’s beyond current science…

Introducing mutations with purpose is beyond us, but inserting a variety of mutations randomly in areas of the proteins known to be impactful in various processes, then observing the behavior of the mutants in vivo is not. We do high throughput mutant screening all the time.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#278

Post by Consultant32452 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:56 PM UTC

pclmulqdq wrote: post #274

AzzieElbab wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

Fauci and his close colleagues (including the current head of the CDC) were ardent proponents of gain of function research, and funded gain of function research at the WIV to the tune of millions of dollars. Didn't anybody think it was weird that the head of the NIH, a research institution, not a public health institution, became the top public health communicator during COVID instead of the heads of the CDC? He had…

There will be no consequences for the people involved. There will be none for Fauci or anyone in the Trump/Biden administrations for allowing and not disclosing this loudly. None for the corporate press who did no journalism whatsoever. No consequences for anyone.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#279

Post by didericis » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:57 PM UTC

akiselev wrote: post #218

didericis wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lean towards the lab hypothesis due to China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. The transition from arresting doctors to locking down cities doesn’t make much sense otherwise. You could argue they had motivation to arrest doctors talking about a natural infection if they thought they…

That's not enough to draw any conclusion - authoritarian governments led by a tiny few are the geopolitical equivalent of a schizophrenic. The smaller the group with absolute power, the more individual personalities, arbitrary interests, and even day-to-day mood dominate the decision making process. The more power is distributed beyond the group, the more policies return to the mean and the less it varies from day to…

That’s a fair point. The response is not conclusive evidence.

I still think the response is more consistent with a lab leak, even when bureaucratic schizophrenia is accounted for, but that expected level of noise makes it impossible to conclude anything definitively.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#280

Post by cat199 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:59 PM UTC

BillyTheKing wrote: post #114

the fact that this theory is still around after more than a year and not completely debunked is quite telling by itself. I thought this was a complete conspiracy theory last year, but the longer it sticks around the more likely it does become.

> I thought this was a complete conspiracy theory

It would only be a conspiracy theory if there was intent - plenty of room for accident without making it a conspiracy.