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The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

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Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#271

Post by Nasrudith »

Animats wrote: post #180

The author has one anecdote about the US and India arguing over food aid, and he projects that into "population growth was not a problem". Why fertility rates declined worldwide is the big question. Worldwide, births per female were about 5 in 1960 and about 2.4 worldwide now. That is a huge, and unexpected, trend. Japan, South Korea, and the EU are in actual decline. Nobody really expected a change that big. It's st…

Urbanization alone has long been observed as causing a drop in observed ferility rates as they no longer get the useful free labor investment, space is more expensive and they are no longer self sustaining.

Low sperm count is not the reason why most people do not have three plus kids - it isn't like people give up on birth control at 30 or 40 and never have any kids again. Most of is "won't have more kids" as opposed to "can't have more kids".

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#272

Post by reducesuffering »

basilgohar wrote: post #120
yellowstuff wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. It could be that worrying about doomsday is an innate human trait, and that as the article asserts, certain types of worries are motivated by racism. I still think it's a good idea to allocate some resources towards mitigating low probability, high impact events.

An even more rational approach is think about it in terms of classes of scenarios to prepare for – many threats can be averted and/or mitigated through common preparations. Seed stores, distributed infrastructure, general survival training, and so on. But given how remote many scenarios seem to most people making decisions, the extra effort for long term benefits over short term gains tends to favor the latter over t…

That's the focus of the classic prepping guide: Doomsday Prepping For Less Crazy Folk

https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#273

Post by watwut »

i_haz_rabies wrote: post #114
watwut wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cant subsist on these only.

You could survive for a long time on this, and if you add cheap produce like carrots and beets for a few cents more you could survive indefinitely.

No, you would not.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#274

Post by to11mtm »

saalweachter wrote: post #157
saddlerustle wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developed countries produce, not a little bit, but multiples of calories than is consumed because people choose to pay extra for tastier but less efficient calories through livestock, and tolerate food waste for convenient packaging and higher quality selection. I don't see any sign of a downwards trend in this ratio.

Oh yes; you can slaughter millions of extra cows and pigs in the US to realize a huge number of available calories, while redirecting the grain back to humans, all with no more ethical worries than you've already accepted in producing & consuming meat. A number of other inefficiencies can also go away under emergency conditions -- people will get less picky about their fruits and vegetables in a hurry, and it won't s…

> My point is -- I don't think food prices will shift much as long as the buffer is positive. If our margin narrows -- less livestock, more of it grass fed on marginal lands, grain spending less time in silos before being processed into food -- to two or three sigmas of food security, I don't think that you'll see food prices rise significantly, from market pressure.

The US is a strange beast when it comes to Agri. It's worth noting that there are conditions under which we are -destroying- surplus crops due to price controls rather than flooding the market.

Which to me is a bigger concern; this 'buffer' may cause price shifts to come with less warnings, and perhaps the first 'shock' will be a bit more than we would expect.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#275

Post by spiralx »

dillondoyle wrote: post #247
spiralx wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The effect of the Gulf Stream on European climate isn't as large as often made out to be. The simple fact that Europe is on the western side of a continental landmass accounts for a huge portion of its climate - air travelling west to east over the ocean absorbs warm moisture and heats up, as the wind travels east across land it sheds that moisture via rain and becomes dryer and colder. It's one of the reasons why Va…

interesting. the study i read did mention the UK as a big effect if it slows down, would get much colder. and maybe im not understanding the west to east air over ocean, isn't that specifically what we're talking about slowing down / potentially worst case stopping or totally changing?

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-weather-typically-so-much-b...

It's actually more complicated than that - the Gulf Stream contributes not to warming Europe but to cooling the eastern seaboard of the US:

https://www.livescience.com/13573-east-coast-colder-europe-w...

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#276

Post by arduanika »

ravi-delia wrote: post #234
_iyig wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has forcibly implemented strict birth control policy for decades. They're also forcibly sterilizing ethnic minority populations, Uyghurs in particular: https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xin...

Ok yes, some people are forcing people. Clearly the person you responded to meant that they, and most people concerned about overpopulation, don't want to force anyone.

No true Scotsman is forcing any other true Scotsman.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#277

Post by amriksohata »

selimthegrim wrote: post #94
amriksohata wrote: post #4

The sheer ignorance of this statement: "The myth, as is commonly told, tells the story of a mid-twentieth century world headed for disaster. There were too many people being born and not enough food being produced. This combination of forces would lead inexorably to famine, unchecked migration, conflict and other calamities. However, thanks to the inventiveness of Western scientists more food was produced, Armageddon…

Who told (Indian) Punjab to hook up electric pumps to tube wells 24/7 and destroy/deplete their aquifers?

Intensive farming did, to get most out of the soil as pesticides and fertilisters drove all that need for extra water

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#278

Post by amriksohata »

jansan wrote: post #14
amriksohata wrote: post #4

The sheer ignorance of this statement: "The myth, as is commonly told, tells the story of a mid-twentieth century world headed for disaster. There were too many people being born and not enough food being produced. This combination of forces would lead inexorably to famine, unchecked migration, conflict and other calamities. However, thanks to the inventiveness of Western scientists more food was produced, Armageddon…

> But the population exploded because of Western invasions that resulted in mass poverty! I disagree. IMO it exploded because improvements in medical care resulted in a dramatic reduction in child deaths, but people kept having the same number of children.

The Indian population went from 50 million to 300 million under British rule, then tripled again after 20-30 years when most did not have access to that medical care.

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#279

Post by ravi-delia »

arduanika wrote: post #276
ravi-delia wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok yes, some people are forcing people. Clearly the person you responded to meant that they, and most people concerned about overpopulation, don't want to force anyone.

No true Scotsman is forcing any other true Scotsman.

"I think that increasing education and birth control will decrease birth rates."

"But haven't you considered that forcing people not to reproduce is horrible?"

"Who said anything about forcing? I'm not advocating for forcing anyone?"

"Hah! But in fact people are being forced!"

"Well yeah, lots of bad things are happening. That doesn't have a whole lot to do with available birth control and high income."

"No TRUE Scotsman!"

Re: The Global Population Crisis That Never Was

#280

Post by lucian1900 »

jojobas wrote: post #238
lucian1900 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It allows limited forms of private property and profit seeking in order to develop the productive forces. It’s a way to avoid invasion or sanctions by the US while keeping the working class in control of the state. China doesn’t extract profits through the export of capital at usury rates from other countries at gunpoint, though. It is not imperialist.

China allows sweatshops that work people to suicide. CCP has nothing to do with the working class, it developed it's own bureaucratic class. Chairman Xi hasn't worked a day outside power structures as he was born to a bigwig. China does extract profits through usury, most of Africa is proof to that. It also buys up Western countries through universities and politicians. There's no honest way to look at it as anything…

China is a poor country that was forced to accept some level of exploitation to avoid invasion or blockade. Thankfully the working conditions have been improving steadily and many of the exploitative practices by foreign companies are now banned.

Most CPC members are working class, especially in the leadership. They’re almost 10% of the population, of course they’d be a typical sample.

China offers loans for development with mutual gain, not extraction of profits. Even just comparing interest rates to the IMF is telling, let alone the many loans forgiven. Talk to some Africans affected by the Belt and Road Initiative, they’re overwhelmingly in favour.

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