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u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

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Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#271

Post by runarberg »

tinyhouse wrote: post #117
jzoch wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trying to figure out the "fundamental" value of anything is a fools errand. Im not saying GME wont drop eventually but there is no value on fundamentals of everything. Look at all the short-sellers of TSLA who made the same mistake. These companies are valued on what the market decides and we all know "The market is irrational".

You're taking a couple of exceptions and deduct that fundamentals don't matter. That's like taking two people who smoke and reached 90 without cancer and assume cancer studies are fools errand.

idk. sometimes the skeptics are right. An easy grab is lobotomy. The studies showed that lobotomy is a good way to tread psychological issues, and doctors mostly agreed. However the premise of “treatment” was flawed. Turns out that the skeptics that pointed to the cases where lobotomy didn’t actually treat the patient were right.

Perhaps economists are basing these so called fundamentals on a false premise.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#272

Post by Scoundreller »

kevincox wrote: post #56
devops000 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope one day we will see an IPFS link

https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmTW7sdBbZ1BXau8Cmrpv5srf38GZi1AiWWBBkv... There you go. It's not perfect though because a lot of the links still point to live assets. But it captured the important bits.

That only captured the first 4 paragraphs.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#273

Post by wting »

hehehaha wrote: post #252
raziel2701 wrote: post #22

On wsb u/deepfuckingvalue showed he still holds 50,000 shares and 500 deep ITM call options. He has secured a profit of $13.8 million dollars, and his remaining open position is valued at $45 million. I would caution people to not quickly fall into the "if he's still in, I'm still in" meme. He has secured a $14 million bag, regardless if the stock goes to zero he's already secured a life changing amount of money, he…

Imagine if you’re his wife (and I believe he has a young daughter) and saw that your husband is leaving a $11M trade on a 8 sigma type of event? I want to ask him so many questions. Like when did you tell your wife? How did she react? Did she force you to take some profits? They need to make a movie about this whole thing when all the details spill out.

I was a professional poker player for ~5 years, and my wife—who has a much lower risk tolerance—asked that I never share variance with her since it causes quite a bit of anxiety.

My daily numbers were in tens of thousands range rather than $11M, but the effect was the same.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#274

Post by tootie »

paulpauper wrote: post #156
tootie wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GME is absolutely going to crash and everyone knows it. There was a mod post just today reminding everyone to be ready. The stock is worth $10-20 on it's merits and that's where it will land. We just don't know when. The chance of this as a contagion that brings down indexes seems very unlikely.

When everyone is convinced X is going to happen, it tends to not happen, or at least not in the way it is expected by the consensus. People said Tesla would crash when Tesla doubled a year ago from $200 to $400, and then to $900, etc., and then it did a 5-1 split, etc. Yes it did crash 20% in August, but from a price that was so high that it was still considerably higher than it was last year when the pundits were wa…

Completely different. Tesla soared on its positive outlook. They have strong sales and have managed to maintain an insurmountable lead in the EV market. Their surge is due to enthusiasm for their business. Gamestop was clinging to life a few months. The rally from $4 to $15 was optimism about their leadership. The rally from $15 to $350 was 100% due to the short squeeze. And the squeeze will most definitely play out and be over pretty soon.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#275

Post by fractionalhare »

wting wrote: post #273
hehehaha wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if you’re his wife (and I believe he has a young daughter) and saw that your husband is leaving a $11M trade on a 8 sigma type of event? I want to ask him so many questions. Like when did you tell your wife? How did she react? Did she force you to take some profits? They need to make a movie about this whole thing when all the details spill out.

I was a professional poker player for ~5 years, and my wife—who has a much lower risk tolerance—asked that I never share variance with her since it causes quite a bit of anxiety. My daily numbers were in tens of thousands range rather than $11M, but the effect was the same.

How'd you get into pro poker? I'm good at statistics and would be interested in learning how to play really well.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#277

Post by codeisawesome »

fractionalhare wrote: post #249
jpmattia wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The overall market is stressed, things are getting weird and I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of another stock market crash. GME short interest was still greater 100% of shares outstanding as of 1pm 1/29 (S3 Shortsight numbers). If forced to cover, short holders will have to liquidate other assets. Could those liquidations force more liquidations in a positive feedback loop? Hopefully no, but certa…

Yes, exactly. When a hedge fund is getting its face ripped off because its shorts are up 50 - 200%, it will liquidate its longs to cover. The rotational dynamics of many funds doing that at once can drive the price down on traditionally stable stocks that everyone owns. In a worst case scenario that could trigger a massive selloff which would crash the market. This is compounded by the fact that funds will defensivel…

After the sell-off, there’s a lot of cash (yes even more) washing around right? It has to go somewhere, and so it will come back into securities in probably a few weeks or max, months. The value represented isn’t exactly disappearing it’s still in the ‘system’. So why is a crash in equities prices such a big deal?

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#278

Post by Alupis »

runarberg wrote: post #201
kinghajj wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems like a savings account could do the trick. You can save a healthy retirement by putting a portion of your salaries in a savings account in your local credit union. With interest rates as low as they are, savings accounts have a negative real return. The $1000 you save today would have substantially less purchasing power by the time you'd retire. > As a bonus—while you are not using that money—other members…

Well in my ideal situation, the stock markets have already crashed and burned. My argument above is not that savings accounts are optimal for me personally, but that they are an alternative to the stock market. Better yet, an alternative which is far more worker friendly as they don’t rely on taking the profits from the workers and putting giving them to the shareholders.

You might be missing the issue here. A savings account will cost you money in the long term - ie. your purchase power will decrease every year because the interest paid on savings accounts does not even keep up with inflation.

The longer and more money you have in a savings account, the less purchase power you actually have. Think of this like putting $100 into the account but only being able to spend $90 of it. Multiply that by your life's savings... and this becomes a horrible way to save for retirement.

A Money Market account would be better, and nearly as safe as a savings account.

IRA's and 401(k) where you control you money is ideal. If you don't want to be bothered to pay attention to the markets... get yourself a managed IRA (yes, a fund would then be in control of your future). With a managed portfolio, you generally get some say over how your money is invested - so you could direct them to invest in industrializing economies (which would help lift people out of poverty over time). Just because you make money on the stock market doesn't mean someone is getting screwed over...

Bottom line is, a savings account will lose you money over time (and that doesn't even touch on the maximum amount you can have per account to be insured, which is far less than you'll need for retirement).

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#279

Post by Alupis »

runarberg wrote: post #212
xienze wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can save a healthy retirement by putting a portion of your salaries in a savings account in your local credit union. You must be joking. My credit union is offering .1% on savings, and it’s not like they’re some extreme outlier, rates are incredibly low across the board. You are actively harming your future by doing this, you aren’t even keeping up with inflation!

No I’m not joking, nor am I harming my future. I don’t have to make an optimal amount of growth on my savings to afford my retirement. There is no harm in owning less money then if I had used them to swindle more workers out of their profits on the open markets. In fact, every dollar you make as a result of not working is a dollar somebody else worked for and didn’t get. You are harming workers by earning money on th…

You do understand where the "interest" comes from on your savings account right? The bank doesn't just invent it...

And largely speaking, when you make money on the stock market it comes from a multitude of sources, including the hedge funds you seem to despise.

Not to mention, just because you made a profit on the market doesn't mean someone was screwed over. The stock is worth whatever it's worth when you sold it. It's an open market...

You do seem to have some fundamentals about the stock market, savings account, and finance a little mixed up.

Re: u/DeepFuckingValue and the GameStop Reddit mania

#280

Post by aeternum »

dcolkitt wrote: post #72
cblconfederate wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and if bitcoin is any guide, people can hodl forever, bacause they are no longer doing it blindly. Who will blink first?

The difference is the supply of bitcoin is fixed. Whereas a company can issue shares at any time. Obviously if the market cap stays at $30 billion for a long time, Gamestop management is going to start spending their overvalued stock like drunken sailors. First it'll be just to plug up the money their operations are constantly losing. Then they'll start going on acquisition sprees, giving out giant compensation packa…

GME issuing shares would be the smart thing to do.

The primary goal of a stock market is really to allow exactly that. The market determines the cost of capital for each company, thereby influencing the allocation of capital in society. The question then becomes how efficiently the company can put that capital to use.

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