Live data from Hacker News

San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

bloomberg.com

271–280 of 640 posts

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#271
post #189

Dating - the #1 app for cities.

But, as an outsider: is it the case for Bay Area? I mean, tech companies have way more males than females, I would expect that areas full of tech employees like the Bay Area would not be ideal for males trying to find partners due to the bigger competition. Is that the case? How is the male/female ratio in those areas?

If you’re a straight single male in the Bay Area your best dating option is to say fuck it and download Grindr or move to New York City.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what leases are for, they fix prices for a year or so by adding cost friction to moving (usually a few months of rent). Which, in theory, act as a buffer to stabilize prices. The problem is that the cost savings of moving is so great that it was cheaper to pay to break the lease than it would be to stay. We saw the reverse of this before: when landlords were paying people $8,000 to move early because rent inf…

> cost savings of moving is so great that it was cheaper to pay to break the lease than it would be to stay What's the law on this? I've read that the landlord is required to make a good faith effort to replace you, but if they can't (or if they can't recoup the costs), you are on the hook. So if the cost is 32% lower and the landlord can only find a tenant willing to pay that much, it seems like you are responsible…

> What's the law on this?

Your understanding is correct, at least in general. If the tenant moves out and stops paying rent, the landlord has a claim for breach of contract. The landlord, however, must try to mitigate his damages by renting the property to someone else. The breaching tenant will be liable for vacancy costs as well as costs of finding a new tenant. If fair market value has gone down and the landlord can’t find a new tenant at the old rate, then the breaching tenant will be liable for the difference in the remainder of the lease term.

There may be statutory exceptions that allow a tenant to break a lease without liability in some circumstances. They’re things like military service, domestic violence, unsafe property, or landlord harassment. See this article for more info for California: https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/tenants-right-break-...

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#273
post #225

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

They will go where the biggest salaries are, as they always did.

Not everyone follows that strategy! I certainly never have.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#274

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

Who are you talking about? Tech workers or people who don’t work in tech?

Everyone I know in the service industry left. I doubt they ever come back. COVID was the nail in the coffin for most bars, restaurants, and clubs in SF that were already struggling. The city isn’t going to be the same after this.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#275
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SF is great (really, just stop it haters!) and there will always be people who want to live there and prices will always be relatively high. However, for a long time SF has been a place of extreme price distortion because of low (~no) new construction and huge concentration of high paying jobs. The result is many many people feeling trapped there way beyond where it makes sense for their lives. If you are single and…

I’m curious as someone who has never lived in SV (only visited for work) but do you feel like there are certain areas that displaced SV gravitate towards and would eventually cause property in those areas to rise as well?

As someone who also has never lived in SV, I'd imagine that, if the majority of these people leaving are young, active, relatively wealthy individuals, that they would move to areas where they can advantage of that position. A lot of people in that demographic are probably relatively active and might have would want to move somewhere with access to lots of outdoor activities. My guesses would be: SLC, Denver, Phoenix.

Disclaimer: I'm from the Denver metro so am obviously biased here. Also please don't move here because housing is expensive enough ;)

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#276
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) 'Occupation' less of an issue, it's 'Ownership'. Foreign owners can rent homes out. Though it's such a problem in Vancouver, they are now taxing empty homes for precisely this reason [1]. Maybe SF should follow suit. 2) That foreign ownership is a primary factor in the rise of home prices in SF, Van, Toronto is completely unambiguous. There's plenty of evidence. The degree of impact is still debatable, but not tha…

The problem with your thesis is "foreign" is a throwaway word that doesn't serve any non-inflammatory purpose. It is just as relevant that investors from Texas or Delaware are buying real estate, or, for that matter, SF landlords who live in Orinda.

Though I see your point, I don't really agree.

'Foreign' mostly means 'Foreign'.

There just aren't a ton of Texans looking to buy up property in SF because 1) inequality, much as we may not think it's good in the US, is actually not that extreme and 2) places with extreme inequality and hyper concentrations of wealth tend to also be very corrupt places where private capital is likely to take flight.

The 'non resident buyers' in SF/Van/Toronto are going to be from China, India, Russia, some other places like that, not Texas.

Obviously, it takes on different characteristics, depending on.

Florida is a domestic getaway and retirement spot for Americans, so it's a different kind of place.

Non high-growth places like Van and Toronto have large foreign populations which act as points of entry. Chicago, Montreal, Portland ... do not.

SF/Valley has a very unique characteristic of IPO Winners and 'local super high net worth' individuals that's hard to factor - and of course, it's not NY with the possibility of rapid expansion.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn’t true, no way do 30% of Seattle students go to private school. We moved to Ballard, which has some pretty good schools (it’s high school is a 9/10). And yes, schools are why we didn’t consider south Seattle.

Not the OP - looks like it's 21.7%[0], so close but you're right that it's lower than 30%. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/more-than-1-i...

That's a lot higher than I thought it would be. Oddly enough, I have a friend in Clyde Hill (not Seattle, pretty good schools) who sends his daughter to private school in Queen Anne.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is how people in South Seattle deal with living in South Seattle, or in downtown (e.g. capital hill), the schools really aren't great there. The schools don't get good until you hit Queen Anne, Magnolia, Ballard, Wallingford, Green Lake, north of UW (Roosevelt is where all the UW professors send their kids), but then they aren't so great again in north (of 85th) Seattle (not as bad as South Seattle, however). I'm not sure how even the reputation of South Seattle is either; my cousins went to West Seattle high school and they had pretty good experiences.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#278
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy the "cost savings" narrative. By a long shot, the largest expense for large companies in employee salaries - rent, by comparison, is a drop in the bucket. What follows is that companies should be most concerned about employee and team productivity rather then office expenses.

Salaries do get affected by WFH policies, since if you move to a cheaper state/country, a company will often do a pay adjustment. So, from a cost savings perspective, it becomes a question of how much a company thinks being in the Bay Area brings in terms of attracting talent, vs how much they can save by having their employees work from Pennsylvania or Canada or India. I know companies in Canada that are way ahead o…

I am skeptical that the labor market for high quality tech talent is as large in the rest of the country or that it is that tied to COL. The US vs not US gap seems much larger than the HCOL vs LCOL for senior IC jobs.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess as to what will happen, for the sake of playing along with the hypothetical simply because it’s fun. Destination cities will still be desirable, however there will be a very slow rebuilding of demand. The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. The entire world was forced to work from home for an extended period of time, introducing those from industries that would scoff at the idea to a d…

> The magnitude of that demand will never reach the same height. I don't believe this; very few companies are okay with permanent remote work after the pandemic is over, even though they are very notable exceptions, eg Facebook. This also assumes the population of people interested in living in destination cities is constant, but it's been growing every year the last decade except this one. COVID and the possibilitie…

Many of my friends who own large companies are explicitly saying they will never rent offices again. As a founder/CEO this is an obvious move.
Post reply on HN