The best I can make sense of this article, there may have been, overall, enough generating capacity on the grid, but not enough transmission capacity in particular locations. The closest anything in this article is the bizarre state statement that "no one says it was congestion". But spiking LMP's pretty much exactly indicate either congestion or insufficient generation in particular areas. In fact, in the case that, overall, there is sufficient generation, these conditions are the same. What it might mean is that there is some network condition, e.g. some generation or transmission out on scheduled maintenance, that puts the grid in a less-than secure state, such that higher than expected demand causes transmission in unexpected areas of the network.
Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
271–280 of 357 posts
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am a technician for xfinity in the bay area and NIMBYism a huge part too I would say. Huge portions of Mill Valley especially on and around Mt Tam had such bad poles and vegetation. Only the last 3 fire years did anything. But literally nothing gets approved besides exact replacement. Nothing gets put underground, or rerouted because (as I understand it) mostly NIMBY groups. And I believe ATT ultimately owns most o…
> Nothing gets put underground That is too bad, I grew up in an desert locale that had all its power lines buried and I only experienced one power outage in fifteen years. Then I moved out to a coastal area where burying the lines wasn’t really feasible and pretty much every time it rained someone would hydroplane into a utility poll and knock out the power for a couple hours, and it rained at least once a week. If t…
(I don't have any professional background in this) I believe in general above-ground lines are "less durable", but they're much easier to install and repair. Below-ground cost significantly more for both. They're also susceptible to different things; wind and tress for above-ground, earthquakes? high water-table? rock vs sand/clay? for below grown.
For a few years I lived in a neighborhood that had above-ground lines, but further down the street they were below ground because that neighborhood was significantly richer. Our power went out fairly frequently. The neighbors told me it was because of the transition from below ground to above ground, but I also wouldn't have been surprised if NIMBYism kept older equipment in service.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am a technician for xfinity in the bay area and NIMBYism a huge part too I would say. Huge portions of Mill Valley especially on and around Mt Tam had such bad poles and vegetation. Only the last 3 fire years did anything. But literally nothing gets approved besides exact replacement. Nothing gets put underground, or rerouted because (as I understand it) mostly NIMBY groups. And I believe ATT ultimately owns most o…
> Nothing gets put underground That is too bad, I grew up in an desert locale that had all its power lines buried and I only experienced one power outage in fifteen years. Then I moved out to a coastal area where burying the lines wasn’t really feasible and pretty much every time it rained someone would hydroplane into a utility poll and knock out the power for a couple hours, and it rained at least once a week. If t…
How does climate interfere with burying power lines? Germany's bad weather is only slightly less of a stereotype than the lack of humour and , and all residential power lines are underground. Even the long-distance lines are moving underground lately.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#274One way to deal with this is to have variable electric rates - cheaper rates when plenty of power is available, and more expensive when less. This incentivizes consumers to time shift their usage. For example, evening A/C use can be time shifted to the day, by cooling the house more during the day, so less is needed in the evening. The thermal mass of a house has a lot of inertia (and can be increased by adding, say,…
SCE is trying to shift people to time of use rates. The problem is the time of use rates are terrible, and will be more expensive to anyone who normally stays within tier one rates of the old plan. I'd end up paying about 30% more for power under any of their time of use rate plans even assuming I only use power in off peak times, despite owning a plug in hybrid. If you stay within their tier one rates on the old pla…
Fixed pricing 24/7 is going to wind up costing everyone much more due to the mismatch between supply & demand.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#275One way to deal with this is to have variable electric rates - cheaper rates when plenty of power is available, and more expensive when less. This incentivizes consumers to time shift their usage. For example, evening A/C use can be time shifted to the day, by cooling the house more during the day, so less is needed in the evening. The thermal mass of a house has a lot of inertia (and can be increased by adding, say,…
California already has variable pricing. It is the main driver for solar installations in the Central Valley.
If there are rolling blackouts in the evenings, the price differential is not large enough. It has to be large enough to motivate people to change their behavior, invest in variable thermostats, etc.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stupid people can also become a monarch or a despot, which is one of the problems of monarchism and despotism. I think that what you've found is a flaw with humanity, not with democracy.
I think the key value of (our version of) democracy is the peaceful transition of power. For example from Clinton -> Bush -> Obama -> Trump. They all had very different views on what the country needed to do, but they all accepted that elections were how the future was decided and handed off power to someone they did not agree with. In a monarchy or despotism, there is no transition of power by design. It is supposed…
A big part to this is that the voters have confidence in the result, hence they don't go around looting and starting civil wars.
Trump is scary. I am not of the US but: I fear if Trump wins. I fear the tantrum/insurrection of Trump if he loses in respect to a peaceful handover.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am a technician for xfinity in the bay area and NIMBYism a huge part too I would say. Huge portions of Mill Valley especially on and around Mt Tam had such bad poles and vegetation. Only the last 3 fire years did anything. But literally nothing gets approved besides exact replacement. Nothing gets put underground, or rerouted because (as I understand it) mostly NIMBY groups. And I believe ATT ultimately owns most o…
Man, I can't imagine anyone NIMBYing new power poles lol. Old poles get scary, especially when they start leaning over. And then when AT&T was mounting giant ass DSL VRADs on poles too lol. I'd be out there cheering on the linemen for replacing the old junk. :D
Because that requires new permits and new permits require impact studies and approval which must go through the public. Which makes it impossible in areas like that.
Just replacement to exactly what was there does not require that approval.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#278Mr Powers is pushing an interesting conspiracy theory in this article, which I haven't seen discussed yet. I haven't seen anyone else backing it up in other sources, but of course it's still early in the reporting on this issue. >In particular, California ISO said two natural gas power plants shut down on Friday and, on Saturday, a wind farm and another gas plant stopped producing power. The state is currently review…
To be fair, we've seen a conspiracy of deliberately pulling perfectly working power plants off the grid in the past, so it's not outside the realm of possibility. In the 2000s, Enron did it to financially manipulate the energy market, and it was directly responsible for California's last crisis [0]. It's probably where the idea of such a conspiracy is coming from. > These blackouts occurred as a result of a poorly de…
I don't think most people realize the nexus of interests that conspired to facilitate those rolling blackouts, while ultimately turning Ken Lay into the Kingmaker of Cali.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#279Too much solar to handle evening A/C load? Rarely does northern California have heavy A/C loads in the evening. Solar power output and heat load usually match well. But not this week. Usually, peak loads are around 2 PM, at air conditioning peak. This power restriction is for 3 PM to 10 PM, which presumably comes from evening A/C loads while buildings cool down. Wind is all over the place, up and down by a factor of…
The peak systemic load occurs at about 3pm but the peak grid load doesn't happen until 6pm. The shift is caused by dispersed rooftop solar.
Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped
#280One way to deal with this is to have variable electric rates - cheaper rates when plenty of power is available, and more expensive when less. This incentivizes consumers to time shift their usage. For example, evening A/C use can be time shifted to the day, by cooling the house more during the day, so less is needed in the evening. The thermal mass of a house has a lot of inertia (and can be increased by adding, say,…
It exists, but because changing rates for existing customers is political toxic you have to opt in.
I suppose the California voters will have to decide between blackouts and high prices vs variable pricing.