Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#271

Post by pasabagi » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

BigBubbleButt wrote: post #232

Tsarbomb wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iteration is what originally gave the Soviets the advantage in the space race.

I always found the dichotomy of Soviet culture interesting - that engineers were the most pragmatic I've ever seen, and the politicians were just...fucking idiots. The best example being Korolev, possibly the greatest rocket designer in history (certainly up there with Von Braun and Xuesen, and in my opinion more impressive), who died because he was sent to the Gulags by a bitter politician (this is an incredibly sho…

Stalin spent the latter half of his career killing all the talented politicians, whereas the engineers got left alone. Then the not-so-talented politicians that got left over (some of whom were not so bad) had to fight against a culture of fear, compulsive ass-covering, and magical thinking.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#272

Post by rchaud » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:29 PM UTC

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #236

justapassenger wrote: post #4

Is it me, or does this article basically romanticize abusing workers and glorifies running projects without a plan, just with a goal?

If you want to change history, you'll put up with a brutal working schedule. If you want a cushy 9-5 job, just apply to the nice big corporation down the street. At the end of the day, you just go home and enjoy your comfy bunny slippers.

This sounds suspiciously identical to a tweet Elon posted last year that went 'viral', including the bit about how people working 9-5 (like that even exists at most corps today) as somehow being 'weak'.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#273

Post by abdullahkhalids » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:30 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #235

KoftaBob wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overarching goal is to have a "backup" of humanity so to speak. Having some of society living on Mars so that if something were to happen to Earth, humanity wouldn't cease to exist. Settling Antarctica doesn't solve that problem.

I'm a huge Musk fan and would love to see us settle mars. But. Really. What's the threat model here? Mars is meant to be a backup of humanity. OK. Against what threat? We can think of many, but a self-isolating base in the Antarctic would survive nearly all of them with better conditions than a Mars base. Nuclear armageddon? Not much fallout over Antarctica and OK, you can't go outside of a while. Still better than M…

> Against what threat? We can think of many ...

The ones we don't even conceive off, or if we do, don't protect against at all.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#274

Post by immmmmm » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:34 PM UTC

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #247

immmmmm wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not pessimistic, I am a scientist that just read the literature. We have now extinction levels 1000-10000 higher than background, this more than previous mass extinctions and expected to go 10 fold worst in the next decades. Moreover we are just a few years to enter a truly non linear regime in the Earth climate dynamics. These are our life support systems on earth and they are about to fall. Swift global action…

I see. Alright, I'll let you continue whatever it is you think you're doing. A lot of what you said is opinion and a lot of scientists would disagree with your assertions (which are in my eyes pessimistic) I do believe in this goal though as do others, you should respect other people's dreams, especially when it doesn't detract from yours. I didn't say this was for short-term survival. This is for long-term survival,…

I have no problem that people follow their dreams, on the contrary, when it is done with respect to others.

The Starlink constellation, so far, is not respectful to people who want a clear sky for instance.

Regarding Mars, I don’t want to take your dreams back, I just think it has to be framed in a more global and long term context.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#275

Post by irrational » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:36 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #127

Ajedi32 wrote: post #56

The pace of innovation here is absolutely ludicrous. They designed and built a custom welding machine _and_ a custom x-ray machine for building tank domes in four weeks ? They've gone from a production rate of one prototype in 8 months to one prototype every 2 weeks in less than a year. They doubled the size of their workforce in less than 48 hours. I'm gonna have to agree with the article author here: this is absolu…

It's really helping them that they have some of the most motivated employees on Earth. Their people absolutely believe in this vision of colonizing Mars just as much as Elon Musk does. (Hell, I do too, I just don't work there.) Meanwhile I'm working at an advertising company.

You could set up the first billboard on Mars!

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#276

Post by irrational » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:39 PM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #231

zchrykng wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Welding by hand is both an art and a science. There is going to be variability in the quality of the weld, which will introduce variability into the strength. Machines can be far more precise and consistent compared to humans. They probably designed their tolerances assuming perfect welds and then didn't have them.

> They probably designed their tolerances assuming perfect welds and then didn't have them. This sounds like terrible engineering practice.

Necessity is the mother of invention?

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#277

Post by _Microft » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:53 PM UTC

nixpulvis wrote: post #268

vermontdevil wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla?

Ok fair... it's not about attention of other projects, and I shouldn't have said that. I'm just reacting strongly to this Mars madness. That is all. Defending this project by saying its leader is also compassionate toward other goals isn't compelling to me.

Why are you reacting strongly to the topic of Mars or maybe Musk in general? Fixing Earth and going to Mars are not mutually exclusive and beside that there are a lot of billionaires doing far less useful things for humanity. Complaining that they could do something more useful would be more understandable, imo.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#278

Post by s_y_n_t_a_x » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:56 PM UTC

immmmmm wrote: post #274

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see. Alright, I'll let you continue whatever it is you think you're doing. A lot of what you said is opinion and a lot of scientists would disagree with your assertions (which are in my eyes pessimistic) I do believe in this goal though as do others, you should respect other people's dreams, especially when it doesn't detract from yours. I didn't say this was for short-term survival. This is for long-term survival,…

I have no problem that people follow their dreams, on the contrary, when it is done with respect to others. The Starlink constellation, so far, is not respectful to people who want a clear sky for instance. Regarding Mars, I don’t want to take your dreams back, I just think it has to be framed in a more global and long term context.

> The Starlink constellation, so far, is not respectful to people who want a clear sky for instance.

How do the feelings of a few astronomers trump connecting the rest of the world to the internet?

You're blowing things way out of proportion as well. You fell for all the aggressive attack campaigns. I've seen all the articles you've read, it's not a real issue.

> I just think it has to be framed in a more global and long term context.

What message from SpaceX did you take issue with exactly? I don't think anyone is suggesting we'll all be living on Mars in a few years.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#279

Post by giantrobot » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 9:08 PM UTC

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #233

giantrobot wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't start from "scratch" on Mars with respect to mining or industry. Cavemen wearing mammoth pelts won't work on Mars. In order to simply survive people would need high levels of technology. Even the most basic living on Mars would need steel and glass and equipment to machine both. Making a steel or glass plate requires a lot of industrial capability and a capable supply chain to say nothing of raw materials.…

You're taking it too literally. No one is suggesting we wear mammoth pelts, only that our efforts will have to be gradual. If we want to survive as a race in the long long term, we have to start colonizing at some point. I just don't see why you're so pessimistic. Let these people go after their dream.

Colonization efforts off Earth can't be gradual. There is a baseline infrastructure necessary for people to live. There are no readily available resources on Mars that exist like they do on Earth. There's no safe places for people on the planet.

Everything people need to survive needs to be brought from Earth. Every aspect of life on Mars needs to be bootstrapped from absolutely nothing. There's no working models for any of that on Earth. That means it all needs to be designed, built, tested, and iterated upon before a single person boards a SpaceX Starship.

Even with Elon Musk's billions that is a vast expense. Even if it was all built, it's billions spent to send people to Mars to simply not die in case a nuclear war wiped out Earth.

It's not pessimistic to point this out, it's realistic. Dreaming about colonizing Mars and hand waving away every practical consideration is just fruitless fantasizing. It's not a plan. It doesn't actually move towards a colony anywhere.

The opportunity cost is billions of dollars and a lot of engineering effort not spent on solutions to more immediate problems that might benefit more people.

Musk talking about colonizing Mars is 90% PR for SpaceX and 10% ego stroking. If SpaceX could build a Starship a week to send people to Mars it would be Musk's friends and billionaires and millionaires. I doubt there's more than a car load of people that work at SpaceX that would be able to afford a Mars ticket. I can't fawn breathlessly over a billionaire describing his fantasy of leaving all us poors to rot on a planet his fellow billionaires ruined.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#280

Post by balfirevic » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 9:09 PM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #70

Ajedi32 wrote: post #56

The pace of innovation here is absolutely ludicrous. They designed and built a custom welding machine _and_ a custom x-ray machine for building tank domes in four weeks ? They've gone from a production rate of one prototype in 8 months to one prototype every 2 weeks in less than a year. They doubled the size of their workforce in less than 48 hours. I'm gonna have to agree with the article author here: this is absolu…

> They designed and built a custom welding machine _and_ a custom X-Ray machine for building tank domes in four weeks? Can any engineer speak to whether this is actually progress, or even necessary? It seems like every time something goes wrong, Elon "invents" a way to do it better. I'm old enough to remember rescue subs, battery swaps, brain implants that will cure autism, factories spitting out factories, solar shi…

> Can any engineer speak to whether this is actually progress, or even necessary?

No, they probably can't. It would be really weird for an outside engineer to have a better insight on this than the engineers from the actual rocket company.