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Is It a Pandemic Yet?

nytimes.com

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Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#271

Post by viklove »

hhjinks wrote: post #216
adventured wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID19 is the most severe (ie. contagious + fatal) airborne disease since the Spanish Flu. It very clearly is and it's out of the box, they can't stop it now. The US should be shutting down all travel into and out of the country, full quarantine from the rest of the world. We'd have a chance at stopping it from doing to the US what it has done to China, if we acted immediately, before it's across Europe and more o…

> Covid froze the second largest economy and did it in the span of a month. What chance does the rest of the world stand at stopping it? None. This doesn't follow. It doesn't matter how large an economy is affected. The primary factor is contact between infected and healthy people. Areas with less population density might have a good shot at keeping infections down, like a lot of areas in Europe.

> like a lot of areas in Europe.

You misspelled America. Europe has a pretty high population density in comparison.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#272

Post by mercer »

mrb wrote: post #95

I will probably be downvoted for saying this, but... The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million. And that's what's going to happen with COVID19. It is far more severe than the flu. We know COVID19 is as contagious, given how fast it's spreading and how unstoppable it is (R0>2, asymptomatic transmission, airborn…

> I will probably be downvoted for saying this, but...

well, for saying that.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#273

Post by pmoriarty »

irq11 wrote: post #266
pmoriarty wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We actually don't know how bad this disease is. China's reporting on it absolutely can not be trusted, because: - their health care system is overwhelmed, so they're not testing everyone who may have been infected (a lot of sick people don't even go to the hospitals because they know they'll get turned away) - they seem to have run out of testing kits in many places - their testing may be faulty anyway (which could a…

So basically, you’re choosing to ignore everything we actually know, and replace it with your theories and FUD. For the record? China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate. They have admitted it. They know that there are many mild cases that are not being counted. Among other things, this means that the commonly cited fatality rates are a gross overestimate , and would be much lower…

"China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate."

They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be.

Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this disease.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#274

Post by ValentineC »

forgot-my-pw wrote: post #261
mrb wrote: post #95

I will probably be downvoted for saying this, but... The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million. And that's what's going to happen with COVID19. It is far more severe than the flu. We know COVID19 is as contagious, given how fast it's spreading and how unstoppable it is (R0>2, asymptomatic transmission, airborn…

It's almost better to get infected now where hospitals are not full (if you're in a developed country and generally a healthy person). Wait out 2 weeks, then you build immunity after. Except when the virus mutates :(

Considering how many countries are panicking over the virus, and how much research is being shared, we should hopefully see a vaccine soon.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#275

Post by ValentineC »

ulfw wrote: post #231
oefrha wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air temperature could possibly do it or at least contribute, as was the case with SARS in 2003.

It's 35C in Bangkok, 36C across Malaysia and 32C in Singapore. How much hotter do you think it would have to get to make that virus die out?

Most Singapore buildings and its public transport system are fully A/C.

It's similar for Malaysia and Thailand since they're still in the tropics, except those countries are less dense.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#276

Post by irq11 »

pmoriarty wrote: post #273
irq11 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically, you’re choosing to ignore everything we actually know, and replace it with your theories and FUD. For the record? China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate. They have admitted it. They know that there are many mild cases that are not being counted. Among other things, this means that the commonly cited fatality rates are a gross overestimate , and would be much lower…

"China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate." They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be. Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this…

No, this isn’t likely at all. The reason they are undercounting cases is because the cases not being counted are mild. If some of those mild cases go on to die, it’s pretty unlikely that it’s due to misdiagnosed severe atypical pneumonia.

Absolutely no reputable sources have advanced this theory, just people who are scaring each other on HN and reddit.

To summarize: undercounting mild cases is definitely happening. Undercounting of covid deaths is extremely unlikely to be happening. Therefore, we know that the current death rates are overestimates of the real values.

These are facts.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#277

Post by thomasjoulin »

ValentineC wrote: post #274
forgot-my-pw wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost better to get infected now where hospitals are not full (if you're in a developed country and generally a healthy person). Wait out 2 weeks, then you build immunity after. Except when the virus mutates :(

Considering how many countries are panicking over the virus, and how much research is being shared, we should hopefully see a vaccine soon.

if it's anything like the flu, the virus mutates and even with yearly vaccines 3-5 million people get sick and half a million die

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#278

Post by mrfusion »

tim333 wrote: post #235
gnulinux wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In particular, chloroquine has been shown to be helpful in treatment and is readily available in developing countries since it's used as a malaria medicine (and there are replacements available in developed countries). in vitro: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0 practice: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/advpub/0/advpub_202...

Yeah it's one thing that gives some hope. Recently: >Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, has been tested in 135 cases in Beijing and southern China's Guangdong Province. Among them, 130 patients have light and common symptoms, and five are severe patients. >None of the patients with light and common symptoms have developed severe symptoms. Four severe patients have been discharged from…

What’s the mechanism of action? This is obviously very different than maleria. Why would it work on both?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#279

Post by mrfusion »

downerending wrote: post #258
tim333 wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's one thing that gives some hope. Recently: >Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, has been tested in 135 cases in Beijing and southern China's Guangdong Province. Among them, 130 patients have light and common symptoms, and five are severe patients. >None of the patients with light and common symptoms have developed severe symptoms. Four severe patients have been discharged from…

Also a good opportunity to ramp up on gin and tonics.

Is it really the same as the medicine?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#280

Post by pmoriarty »

irq11 wrote: post #276
pmoriarty wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China is definitely, absolutely, positively under-reporting the infection rate." They also seem to be underreporting the fatalities, by (for example) counting them as not caused by COVID-19 when they may well be. Because both infection rates and fatalities are likely being underreported, and because we don't know by how much they are being underreported, it's premature to draw conclusions as to the severity of this…

No, this isn’t likely at all. The reason they are undercounting cases is because the cases not being counted are mild . If some of those mild cases go on to die, it’s pretty unlikely that it’s due to misdiagnosed severe atypical pneumonia. Absolutely no reputable sources have advanced this theory, just people who are scaring each other on HN and reddit. To summarize: undercounting mild cases is definitely happening.…

You are stating your own probability estimates. Those aren't facts except to the extent that it may be a fact that you do believe them.

Otherwise probability estimates and guesses about what China is or isn't doing and why aren't facts... they're just that: guesses.

Thanks for sharing them, though. It's always nice to hear the reasons for another person's opinion.

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