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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

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Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#271
When I was young, it wasn't that I was necessarily smart, but I did enjoy reading. My typical fare from when I was very young included books on biology, archeology, anthropology, etc. Everyone took this to mean that I was smart, and I ended up in the classic 'smart trap'. I forgot what it was that made me knowledgable (practice), and instead believed it was innate.

Regardless of this, now that I am an adult, I find that I would love to spend my time learning. It's a primary value. I have children, and have to focus on their upbringing as well, which is a massive drain on the time that I can bring to bear on learning new things - and I mean taking classes to advance my understanding of mathematics, not learning a new programming language.

When I think about being wealthy, I actually think about spending my time going to classes, doing research, and advancing human knowledge. I know others who would use their time for leisure, and probably a dozen other possibilities.

In the end, I simply don't value money beyond giving me the basic necessities of life. I find my time outside of work is best used focusing on studies like what I described (I mean, they are all free now, for the most part). I find that people who are focused on wealth, unless it is inherited, put most of their time in gaining new wealth. I just don't see anything revolutionary in gaining more power, which is what wealth is to me. True revolution comes from technological development, which is typically done by the public sector. Sadly, work there is poorly rewarded by the private sector (companies making billions on the internet don't donate money back to DARPA for more research, or for that matter GPS, chip technologies, etc.).

I just think it's a difference in values. Getting to where I wish I could be at this point of my life would come at too much cost to my family, so now I find myself working for profit for the rest of my life. Not so bad, of course... I have some time for the leisure that allows me to expand my knowledge, and maybe catch up enough to understand the incredible things that are happening in the space of scientific advancement.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#272
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, but this is a strawman, because a basic tenet of libertarianism is that a government is necessary to forcefully (if necessary) prevent others from trampling on your individual rights. You are describing anarchy, not libertarianism.

In theory yes, but in practice most libertarians involved in politics want to ruthlessly prune government down to courts for arbitration of contractual disputes, and police for enforcing property rights. What you are describing is not anarchy, for that matter. Anarchy means absence of rulers , which is not the same thing as chaos and warlordism. Political anarchists are concerned with the establishment of systems tha…

I haven't said anything about rwanda. I wad only adding nuance to your extremely blanket characterization of libertarianism which clearly calls for a government of some kind.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great point. It's not (necessarily) that Americans are just inherently money-hungry; we just have to be because we live in a system that is really callous and unmerciful compared to other places in the world.

> that is really callous and unmerciful compared to other places in the world like Europe, which has a level of public spending that many view as unsustainably high? Edit: plenty of economists are saying this! It's hardly a controversial view

Northern Europe or Mediterranean Europe? Greece and Italy are a mess, but the North's budgets look a lot better than the U.S.'s does.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#274

There's also the fact that being rich isn't everyone's goal. It looks like it is a pain in the ass to be rich, actually.

Why is that? I think there are many ways of being rich. For example, being rich but still living a relatively simple life.

I was joking with my brother that this narrative of "being rich must be miserable" is one of the greatest cons played on the middle class -- or just sour grapes. Taleb states: if you control your preferences you are way way way ahead of the crowd--most people become rich to impress other rich people and lose their personal preferences in the process. The treadmill effect is wild.

Note: we were born in Africa moved to NA and slept in a one bedroom apartment with our parents like sardines. Fast foward to now and life is much better. I am not rich by any stretch.

When people born here (western world) say being rich isnt worth it I laugh. You're used to a certain level of safety net that we know is not sustainable and is soon to disappear (in my humble opinion). We are Zimbabwean (left 2001)

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^^ Techlead spotted. You can have both good things in your life again. Dust yourself off, learn what you need to learn and find someone who will uphold her commitments (I'm making some assumptions about your vows)...

while I appreciate it... i realized that it would never be the same. too much time has pasted, we're both different people now. i'm just happy that they are both happy and healthy. divorce doesn't mean you have to hate each other forever.

Ok. So, it's over, and you aren't filled with hate. That's great news! You might miss the people and pets of past still, but surely you can continue to move on and find that you can be happy with other dogs and with other lovers.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great point. It's not (necessarily) that Americans are just inherently money-hungry; we just have to be because we live in a system that is really callous and unmerciful compared to other places in the world.

There are plenty of people in America who continue to chase money long after their safe retirement is assured. I don't know if I'm qualified to compare Americans to Europeans, but many Americans really are enamored with money and judge material wealth as the be all and end all goal of life.

As an American I can say that we value human character over wealth. Most true wealthy Americans, those who have more than what they owe and still have a lot left over to to live comfortably are not enamored by money. They are enamored with survival, leaving money behind to their family, and philanthropy. And of course nice experiences (like a good meal and at good restaurant) and a few toys (typically centered around one or two hobbies, way of life). I might be way biased though with my assessment.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#277
post #109

I went to an elite engineering school. My colleagues are all really smart. After 20 years, some are wealthy, some are poor. There is no apparent link between how hard they worked and how rich they became. However you can definitely trace how a few good breaks led to one guy being rich and another not. Did the guys who went to work for Google take any additional risk? Yet, they are now millionaires. How about the entr…

> Yes, by my direct observation, it’s mostly chance.

Wait, what? Are you sure you're reaching the right conclusion? It sounds like your anecdote supports the opposite once you stop looking inter-your-small-group, and start comparing groups. Have you compared median wage data for your elite university versus median wage data for the country you are in? I suspect the difference is noticeable.

It appears you are making the mistake of comparing a group of successful entrepreneurs, failed entrepreneurs, and people who went to work at Goog and McKinsey with each-other, but you really need to compare that group to people who couldn't get a job at Google or McKinsey at all. Obviously life is not nearly that uni-dimensional, but I'd wager your median "all really smart" colleague is wildly beating the median person, even if some of them are broke.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

while I appreciate it... i realized that it would never be the same. too much time has pasted, we're both different people now. i'm just happy that they are both happy and healthy. divorce doesn't mean you have to hate each other forever.

I didnt mean have your ex back. I meant have someone you appreciate approximately as much, though maybe for different reasons.

dude... you find one true love in life. if you haven't been married, you won't know what I mean... and if you are married, then you don't want to find out what I mean.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#279
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wealth and privilege buy you (and your children) a lot of safety nets and a lot of second chances. People without those advantages are often in an incredibly precarious situation, just one tough break or one bad decision away from total ruin. People without those advantages have to build them. That is what smart people do. That is what I (a poor black kid) did with an old used computer that my father left behind af…

Yeah, I think you want to tell different people different things. You want to tell poor people to take responsibility for their own success, because that's the best way to motivate them. But you also want to tell those running things that they have a huge impact on poor people's success, and things like better public schools would go a long way. Because if the people running things shrug and say "those poor people ar…

God forbid poor people catch on to this noble lie

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#280

I chased the dollar and lost my wife and Pomeranian in a divorce :( I was rich, but never realized that love and companionship is worth more in the long term than money. I would give a billion dollars to wake up with my wife in my arms and that little dude licking my face.

^^ Techlead spotted. You can have both good things in your life again. Dust yourself off, learn what you need to learn and find someone who will uphold her commitments (I'm making some assumptions about your vows)...

I still can't figure out whether he's playing a character on that YouTube channel or if it is real.
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