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Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

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Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#271

Post by scarygliders »

mikekchar wrote: post #169
bobthepanda wrote: post #27

The US saw similar efforts in Detroit and other Rust Belt cities. That mostly just resulted in asset flippers hoarding houses and letting them fall into further disrepair. I wonder what steps Japan is taking to mitigate that possibility.

It's not easy to asset flip in Japan. I have no idea about this program. I live in Japan and I haven't heard about it, so I'm not sure what the deal is. However, people in Japan don't buy used houses. Due to the large number of earthquakes, etc, older houses are felt to be unsafe. A house on a property is actually a liability because the new owner will have to knock down the house in order to build a new one. I'm abs…

I outright bought and fully owned a newly-built house in the outskirts of Koriyama City (Tobu New Town), Fukushima prefecture, in 2008.

After the M9 quake, I mamaged to sell that house for basically the price I bought it for. Why? Because people were looking for houses located in areas which weren't dusted with the radioactive cloud from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant which went FOOM! at the time. My house just happened to be located in an area where the weather conditions had diverted most of said cloud, and it was a young family who bought the place.

I then skedaddled out of Japan back to my native Scotland, bringing my sona dn Japanese wife with me.

Point being, there will be certain factors involved in which used houses can be sold on and not suffer much depreciation. Admittedly, my house was only about 3 years old, and we had a professional cleaning team go right through the place before the new owners moved in.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#272

Post by scarecrowbob »

lioeters wrote: post #172
scarecrowbob wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I am looking to buy a place in Llano or Blanco (between Austin and Fredericksburg, basically) in summer of 2019 and then spend a lot of time camping and visiting people and travelling. Just because you're remotely based in the sticks and use property there as a place to park equity and a place to keep your big stuff (I have a lot of tools and music equipment) doesn't mean you have to stay there if you're…

Years ago, I lived with a friend in Blanco for a few months - a little house built by the owner on the top of a hill, with a big garden, horses, goats, chickens, dogs, as well as occasional rattle snake or scorpion. It was fairly isolated (in a comforting way), so having access to an automobile was a necessity. If I recall, about ~1 hour to Austin, with a lively music scene. I learned how the Texas hill country can b…

Yeah, it's beautiful. I have a bunch of friends in different places out here and that makes it even better.

I can't imagine trying to live out here without a car or truck though.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#273

Post by wokwokwok »

laurieg wrote: post #261
jameslk wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan is not a very good proxy due to their strict immigration policies and preference to be an "ethnically homogeneous nation." As you mentioned, other countries can just replenish their head count through relaxed immigration. I'd wager, for example, that the US will remain highly multicultural with looser immigration long term since it's baked into its identity[0], despite some recent policy changes. 0. https://en.…

"Japan has strict immigration policies" is often repeated, but I don't think this is tells the whole story. Some of the policies are very permissive: * If you graduated university and have a 'skilled' job in Japan, you are likely to get a visa. There is no cap on the number of these. There is no language requirement. * If you live in Japan for over 5 years continuously you can apply for citizenship, though you must r…

This is misrepresentative.

You can apply, but actually getting both permanent residency and citizenship isn’t nearly that trivial.

“Working in japan” and “becoming Japanese” are different things, and the latter is very much more difficult.

Japan is very happy to have foreign workers who will politely leave once they lose their jobs / get old, but the immigration figures, in absolute terms, are tiny.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#274

Post by scarecrowbob »

zid3nt wrote: post #165
scarecrowbob wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I am looking to buy a place in Llano or Blanco (between Austin and Fredericksburg, basically) in summer of 2019 and then spend a lot of time camping and visiting people and travelling. Just because you're remotely based in the sticks and use property there as a place to park equity and a place to keep your big stuff (I have a lot of tools and music equipment) doesn't mean you have to stay there if you're…

Do you find there are a lot of places to camp around there? I'm in San Antonio, and I find it very sparse compared to places that feel made for camping and hiking (looking at you, PNW).

Yeah, there is very little public land in Texas.

I've been to a lot of the state parks (there are some good ones). The dinosaur tracks in government canyon are cool, lost maples is nice. I've spent a whole lot of time at Enchanted Rock.

None of the places is very big, but if there should be enough to keep someone busy for most weekends if they are motivated.

As you get farther, Mustang Island state park is nice, and I'm very much looking forward to build some lead rock climbing skills-- El Portrero Chico is only 6 hours south.

As other folks have mentioned, Big Bend, Terrlingua, MArfa, Alpine, etc. are all quite good. If you haven't been to Big Bend NP, I'd recommend a trip out that way.

If you can go 9hrs, Ruidoso NM will get you into the mountains.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#275

Post by lovemenot »

swombat wrote: post #269
laurieg wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Japan has strict immigration policies" is often repeated, but I don't think this is tells the whole story. Some of the policies are very permissive: * If you graduated university and have a 'skilled' job in Japan, you are likely to get a visa. There is no cap on the number of these. There is no language requirement. * If you live in Japan for over 5 years continuously you can apply for citizenship, though you must r…

Based on my experience visiting Japan and talking to both expats and expat-friendly locals there, I think the issue is more cultural than political. If you live in Japan but don't look Japanese you never really feel welcomed as a Japanese. Contrast that to countries like most of the West, where at least a solid proportion of people consider it socially unacceptable to discriminate socially based on someone's looks or…

This feeling they experienced is of course subjective. Take it from a 20-year non-native Tokyo resident - it doesn't have to feel unwelcoming. Depends on the individual I guess.

Admittedly, I've never lived in any of the out-of-the way places where most of these properties are located.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#276

Post by raquo »

iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

If we keep going the way we're going now, by the time population decline puts a negative pressure on land and housing prices, they will be so high that 99% of people will have no way of ever owning it other than by inheritance.

I don't think we will arrive at declining housing prices the way you suggest. Something will have to give way before that.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#277

Post by chongli »

eloff wrote: post #264
colechristensen wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food and energy are not what defines scarcity any more. If you want to pay the mortgage, have a fulfilling job, have time to spend with your family, and give your child a good start in life, you can't have 8 kids in a middle class family. Sometimes 1 is the right number if you want your child to be successful and have enough free time to enjoy life yourself. That IS resource constraint, the resource just isn't food.…

What's the resource constraint then if it's not food, energy, or shelter? People want to buy more stuff? Hardly a requirement of years gone by. People want more free time? Doubtful, otherwise people would work less and buy less stuff - which we don't see. People keep getting more productive, but they just funnel that into a more expensive lifestyle rather than cutting back on work. I don't think the reasons are simpl…

The resource constraints now are time and location. It's affordable to buy houses in a lot of places, just not so many that have access to good jobs and schools. So people prioritize the latter and sacrifice their time by commuting for work.

Since both parents now work, often with lengthy commutes, there isn't a whole lot of person-hours left to spend with the children. That means people have fewer of them.

When the kids get older and it's time to send them to university, well, that's something which has gone backwards in affordability. The cost of a university degree has shot through the roof. How could anyone afford to send 3 kids to university these days, let alone 8?

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#278

Post by adventured »

iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

> it means that the driving force behind increases in property value (population increases) will be curtailed

> There will be fewer humans each year making the total pressure on land values negative

Your premise about real-estate inherently contracting in value due to population contraction, is not correct. Nor is your premise about the driving force correct.

Double the US population and drop the total national income by 95%. See which is the greater driving force in real-estate values. You can see this in action right now just by looking at high population density countries that are poor. Bangladesh has extreme population density, their real-estate is not expensive compared to Canada (~1/400th the population density) or the US (~1/40th the population density).

You can increase the value of real-estate while contracting the population, by increasing the per capita income of each person enough to overcome the effect of the population decline. Germany's population has barely budged in 50 years, their real-estate has increased in value in that time as the economy has expanded in real terms with a climb in their per capita wealth and incomes.

Today nearly everything you've ever heard about healthy (ie non-war, famine, etc) population decline being a horrible outcome, is false. It may have been true in the past, it is no longer.

The ideal outcome is for populations to decline while productivity and income soars per capita, improving the standard of living of each person remaining and lightening the burden on earth's resources. The focus of all nations should be on aggressively increasing per capita output, not on fighting healthy population decline.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#279

Post by jaredklewis »

swombat wrote: post #269
laurieg wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Japan has strict immigration policies" is often repeated, but I don't think this is tells the whole story. Some of the policies are very permissive: * If you graduated university and have a 'skilled' job in Japan, you are likely to get a visa. There is no cap on the number of these. There is no language requirement. * If you live in Japan for over 5 years continuously you can apply for citizenship, though you must r…

Based on my experience visiting Japan and talking to both expats and expat-friendly locals there, I think the issue is more cultural than political. If you live in Japan but don't look Japanese you never really feel welcomed as a Japanese. Contrast that to countries like most of the West, where at least a solid proportion of people consider it socially unacceptable to discriminate socially based on someone's looks or…

> Contrast that to countries like most of the West, where at least a solid proportion of people consider it socially unacceptable to discriminate socially based on someone's looks or origins..

Those things are also socially unacceptable in Japan. My experience is that the often discussed "micro-agressions" against foreigners happen about as often in Japan as they do in my own country (US, grew up in Texas).

Of course, the only complaints that foreigners in Japan can make is about trivia. The US is so fucked up that we cannot seem to stop shooting unarmed black men, we're separating mothers from babies, and as of last week now tear gassing families at the border. So not sure if you are American, but many of the foreigners in Japan that complain of discrimination are, and I just want to say that I think it takes a lot of balls for an American in Japan to be like "hey, you guys can do a lot better with the discrimination thing."

As horrifying as someone being impressed with your ability to use chopsticks is, it's not quite so horrifying as being literally shot for walking on the street.

Many people in the US freeze up if a black person so much as walks by them on the street. And on the other side of the pacific? Ask a random stranger for directions; 9 times out of 10 they will stop whatever they are doing and walk with you to wherever you are going.

Re: Japan Is Giving Away 8M Abandoned Houses

#280

Post by adventured »

snowwrestler wrote: post #227
iandanforth wrote: post #180

The more interesting thing about this is that it is part of a new type of economics, contraction economics. The global trend toward birth rates below replenishment means that first-world countries are maintaining their population growth through immigration. As some countries embrace restrictions on immigration, and ultimately all countries plateau in their population growth (projected to be around 2100) it means that…

I disagree that there is a significant correlation between expanding population and an expanding economy. In fact there are plenty of examples of countries whose economy expanded way faster than their population, which implies that factors other than population dominate economic growth. (If population was the dominant factor in economic growth, we would see a consistent correlation between the two.) Every day we read…

One prominent recent example that destroys the myth that economic expansion is very tightly bound to population expansion, is the US.

2008 pop: 304m people. 2018 pop: ~327m people. A 7.5% increase in population across a decade.

2008 GDP: $14.72t ($17.64t inflation adjusted). 2018 GDP: $20.5t. Approximately a 17% real increase in GDP.

The US added an economy close to the size of Germany in just ten years while only adding 23m people (Germany's population is 83m). That's courtesy of increasing output per capita far more than it is population growth.

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