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Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

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Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#271

Post by AOsborn »

radiorental wrote: post #251
flexie wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

> Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia. Sincerely, and with all due respect, this is a false analogy. What happened to Nokia was pretty much self inflicted. Mismanagement, competing empires, complacency. Apple did not start shipping low end brick phones and eat Nokia's market. Post '08 bailout automotive manufacturers are lean and hungry (for the most part) Furthermore, the 'traditi…

Fair opinion, but I think you are arguing the wrong point.

Apple ate market share from Nokia because of brand advantage.

Many commentators mention that manufacturers are improving their EV product, but I think that boat has long sailed: Tesla vs. Ford won't be about features, but the brand.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#272

Post by rootusrootus »

mikeash wrote: post #118
timr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit ) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in t…

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

I am very interested to see how this plays out. Gas prices drive interest in electrics, and electrics drive down gas prices. Maybe the future of the consumer car market is going to split largely between gas-powered pickups and electric-powered sedans/crossovers.

This of course completely ignores the potential effect of self-driving cars. I'm still skeptical we'll see large scale automated driving for at least 10-20 years.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#273

Post by rootusrootus »

yawz wrote: post #183
paganel wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had the exact same discussion with somebody else today on /r/futurology, more exactly I told him that "under $40,000" it's still pretty damn expensive for a small hatchback. My 1.4l European small hatchback costs around 13,000 euros new, you just can't expect people to not take into consideration the huge difference between the 2 prices.

I'm not sure if this year all figures are the same, but when I was car-shopping in November, Colorado state granted up to $6,000 in tax credits for new EVs. Federal tax credit was $7,500. And on top of that, Nissan was adding their own discount for their new Leafs. So, nobody pays the full price of an EV at the moment. You can currently buy 1-2 year-old, certified Nissan Leafs for less than $13,000.

With the number of reservations Tesla has for the Model 3, we are going to find out rather quickly what effect losing the big tax credits has on electric adoption. Maybe that is hidden somewhat by the leasing -- buying an EV right now is foolish, leasing is a much better choice. Even the Model S is going through the auctions at half MSRP or sometimes less, and less prestigous cars like the 500E are auctioning at 4K or so. Anybody who purchased on outright a few years ago is going to be extremely upside down for a while longer.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#274

Post by rootusrootus »

hacktothefuture wrote: post #161
mikeash wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

100% agree but they have to be careful with the idea that "It's smart to invest in what sells right now... "! The story is so reminiscent of Kodak. Huge 'titanic' of a ship that saw the writing on the wall, actually released digital cameras but the bulk of their infrastructure, employees and expenditures were in traditional film cameras. Once the industry fully shifted they still couldn't change course and died a slo…

Aside from market share, it doesn't seem like much of a risk to go with what works now and save the big EV push for later. GM still came out with the Bolt, which is an excellent competitor for the Model 3. Not too pretty, but the numbers are all very good. So they know how to do it, and when the sales are there they can scale up production of whatever they're marking 10 or 20 years from now. I'd bet on GM in a battle with Tesla, to be honest, though Musk has a lot of chutzpah.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#276

Post by bitexploder »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #256
ithinkinstereo wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think for a young late 20s, early 30s professional with disposable income, maybe a baby on the way, it's really a no-brainer deciding between a 3-series, C-class, Volvo, vs a Model 3. And if you can only afford a Camry/Altima/Jetta/etc. a 5-10K increase in price for a much better (perceived) product is also a no-brainer. People will def max out their credit to get the upgrade to a Tesla. The above, doubly-so for Ch…

Does the model 3 have sufficient room for a rear facing car seat? One of my main concerns

If I can fit a family of four in a 2012 Mustang it is nearly inconceivable a mid-size EV would not have enough space. Almost inconceivable that it won't have plenty of space.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#277

Post by wott »

smilekzs wrote: post #195
forgotpwtomain wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> environment as well It's not going to do anything great for the environment and we've been over this on previous Tesla threads (years ago). Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

Unclean power plants are still vastly more efficient than the most efficient internal combustion engines. That's why trains are electric wherever possible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_locomotive

> Unclean power plants are still vastly more efficient than the most efficient internal combustion engines.

I don't think so.

> That's why trains are electric wherever possible.

1. Thing is, you don't have to refuel electric locomotives, so that saves time and logistics. Unless you plan to install a pantograph on the roof of your Tesla, you still have to refuel it.

2. Unlike cars, diesel locomotives do not use any kind of direct transmission anyway, they generate electricity from Diesel engines to power electric motors. Because unlike cars, they have to transmit huge power and torque to make the first wheels turns, and mechanical transmissions are not good for that, but electric engines are. So since they use electric engines anyway, why not power them from electrical energy instead of diesel? That's why locomotives are electrical wherever possible.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#278

Post by ryanmarsh »

hueving wrote: post #147
aphextron wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To sell that many $35,000 sedans in the U.S. “would be absolutely unprecedented based on what we know about car markets today and how people spend their dollars,” said Salim Morsy, electric car analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “It could happen. I’m pretty sure it won’t.” Model 3's will sell literally as fast as Tesla can push them off the production line. The pent up demand for this thing is insane. Over 40…

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

I can't remember a product that sold 400,000 preorders (many of which were sight unseen) with a $1,000 deposit in my lifetime. I think anyone trying to downplay the demand isn't looking at it in the right context.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#279

Post by dilemma »

smogcutter wrote: post #216
w8vY7ER wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is worth noting that Jon McNeill (Pres. Global Sales and Service) took the time to post on a user forum in direct response to service delays and spoke with a fair bit of detail about how they are fixing the problem. Whether or not you are a fan, I think everyone can agree that this level of engagement is a strong positive for their cause. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2004525/

That's really interesting. Seems like the answer is they need a lot more third party shops - the problems that McNeill describes sound like the kind of thing that happens when there isn't enough competition. If I'm a model 3 customer, I don't really care about your service record in Palo Alto. What can you do for me in Skokie? Very interested to see how all this plays out. The success or failure of the Model 3 could…

So they need a network of dealers.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#280

Post by harichinnan »

TheSmiddy wrote: post #224
harichinnan wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the car version iphone, with people queuing up at the store days before the product is seen. I would believe they would stop production exactly at 400K cars, the current waiting list and start a new Model 4 waiting list. They have an air of exclusivity now with their current models. People still gawk at the sight of a Tesla. They would want to maintain that awe factor with Model 3 as well.

You're assuming a pure profit motive. Literally everything Elon Musk is doing has a strong element of trying to save the world. The goal of Tesla is to make every new car sold electric, if they have to command 100% of the market they will do that, but they'd rather there be some competition.

Unless Musk gives away much of his wealth in his lifetime, he could very well be the world's first trillionaire. Think of Toyota and Exxon Mobil rolled into one with virtually no competition in sight.

To put things in perspective, this car is just 10 grand more than a full featured Toyota Camry. In countries that import both cars and oil like India, the price of the Tesla would be less than a Camry if they reduce the import tariffs. It's a foreseeable option to reduce foreign oil dependency. Also in developing countries, for every person that can afford to buy a Tesla and also knows how to drive, there would be dozens more who can't drive but could very well afford one. Once Tesla delivers their first 400K cars and proves they can drive themselves anywhere in the world, the demand would far exceed supply in the foreseeable future.

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