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Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

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Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#271

Post by jedberg »

user837387 wrote: post #177
DamnYuppie wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with you but people said the same thing about amazon for over a decade....

Amazon can collapse really fast. My bet is that if it does it will be almost overnight and everybody will claim that nobody saw it coming. The reason I believe that it may collapse is because now when I want to buy something online I rather go to Walmart,Target or to the specific brand store. When I think of Amazon the picture that comes to mind is of shady people trying to scam me out of my money. My perception, eve…

Do you actually go to the brand stores though? The other day I needed something that wasn't on Amazon, so I bought it from the retailer directly. And then I remembered why I love Amazon and Prime. The ordering was terrible, and I had to wait 10 days for it to arrive.

With Amazon the purchasing is seamless. That's where they really win. And they just keep making it easier. Now I can order things with my voice (using Alexa).

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#272

Post by dboreham »

joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

This assumes autonomous vehicles exist, which they don't.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#273

Post by jiggliemon »

shanwang wrote: post #267

Looking at it, I'm thinking google hasn't learnt anything about the failure of google glass, who wants to buy a car like that? A car is more than a commuting tool, it really matters how it looks.

They're not selling a car. They're selling a driver. They're presumably going to partner with auto manufacturers.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#274

Post by dragonwriter »

bambax wrote: post #107
joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

> Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive But how is this going to work? In cities, everyone uses their car at exactly the same time: roughly, between 8-9 in the morning and 5-7 in the evening. If you don't own a car, chances are you won't get one when you need it to get to work on time. Or, if there are enough cars for peak hours, then demand for new cars will…

> Or, if there are enough cars for peak hours, then demand for new cars will not fall that much (although the structure of ownership may in fact change).

Initially, no, but long-term you can move much parking to cheaper places around the periphery of the urban area rather than needing a parking spot where people live, one where they work, and fractions everywhere else they might go. So sustainable density of everything that isn't parking spaces in the city core goes up, walkability and transit access improve, so the cars/people ratio drops.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#275

Post by jedberg »

choxi wrote: post #165
rorykoehler wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be worth anything because autonomous ride-sharing will be a pricing game. Anyone who undercuts Uber, and there will be plenty of willing and able companies, will beat them.

There are a few other things they could compete on: - Availability. Who has the largest network and highest availability? - Car Design. Who has the most comfortable or fully featured cars? - Safety. Who has the safest car? Who has the safest track record? It might eventually become a race to the bottom, but I think there's still plenty of opportunity to compete on other fronts for at least the next five years.

Availability barely matters though. When I need a ride I open Lyft, see if they have a car nearby, and if the answer is no, I switch to Uber. The switching cost is so low it's negligible.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#276

Post by jedberg »

dboreham wrote: post #272
joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

This assumes autonomous vehicles exist, which they don't.

Wait five years. It'll almost certainly happen. The technology is solvable and lots of very big companies are spending billions to make it happen.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#277

Post by DennisP »

Animats wrote: post #270
joeguilmette wrote: post #49

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

Five years from now: * All the big auto manufacturers are shipping self-driving cars. Volvo is the first to ship a Level 3 system to real customers. * Tesla is doing OK, but the big electric car brand is Chevy. * Waymo is a Tier I supplier to Fiat/Chrysler. * GM and Ford are using their own self-driving technology. * Uber is still around, but is out of investor cash, and has to be profitable to pay back its loans. Th…

Why Volvo?

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#278

Post by dragonwriter »

_spoonman wrote: post #142
rorykoehler wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be worth anything because autonomous ride-sharing will be a pricing game. Anyone who undercuts Uber, and there will be plenty of willing and able companies, will beat them.

An app that books the cheapest ride for you out of all the ride-sharing companies. Like Kayak but for ride-sharing. This comment is the same as a patent, right?

Google has ridesharing price comparison built into Maps already.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#279

Post by ssharp »

kbenson wrote: post #250
bambax wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive But how is this going to work? In cities, everyone uses their car at exactly the same time: roughly, between 8-9 in the morning and 5-7 in the evening. If you don't own a car, chances are you won't get one when you need it to get to work on time. Or, if there are enough cars for peak hours, then demand for new cars will…

It's much easier to coordinate ride sharing when there's an interested third party in place. ad-hoc ride-sharing for a reduces cost could result in the average car traveling at much closer to full capacity much of the time. If you set it up ahead of time, it could even optimize a route that picks up and drops off along an optimal route. Don't think of it as replacing what historically was walking outside and hailing…

I think you overestimate how willing someone is to sit in a small car with 3 other strangers during their morning and evening commutes. I don't see a huge impact on ownership at least in the first decade or two of autonomous cars. Lots of people still have relatively specific needs, e.g. requiring car seats of various sizes for their young children, needing to pick-up or drop-off kids at school, sports practice, etc.

Mass transit works well in dense areas because the vehicles are large and only need to go short distances or go long distance over a specific route. When everyone has their own custom route, person A's route may make person B's route unacceptably longer. Also, sitting on a bus/train with 50 strangers is less of an odd social situation than sitting in a car with one stranger.

Once autonomous cars get to the point where they don't require any driver attention at all, I think it will make ownership even more appealing since you could customize the entire to match whatever you want to do while you're hauled around.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#280

Post by Loughla »

user837387 wrote: post #177
DamnYuppie wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with you but people said the same thing about amazon for over a decade....

Amazon can collapse really fast. My bet is that if it does it will be almost overnight and everybody will claim that nobody saw it coming. The reason I believe that it may collapse is because now when I want to buy something online I rather go to Walmart,Target or to the specific brand store. When I think of Amazon the picture that comes to mind is of shady people trying to scam me out of my money. My perception, eve…

Amazon is 1000% easier to use than to compare prices from different places. I also view it as more secure than entering my information on 10 different websites. I don't know that many people share your perception.
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