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Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

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Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#271
post #243
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Tesla also relies on government subsidies as well a loan (which it paid back early, as did Ford). Also Ford is more than a 100 years old, so it's bound to have a bad period. We'll have to see what happens when tech companies are that old ( or will they even survive)

So what we're concluding is that a company has difficulty remaining competitive unless it fully abuses the system within which it operates? Hmm...

Abuses? How about "utilizes"? The subsidy is there to get more electric vehicles on the road.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#272
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that would be a good thing? Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If the cars aren't causing pollution or gridlock, what's so bad about living in the suburbs?

Suburbs destroy public life, create anxiety and a sense of atomization, and turn natural spaces into scar tissue. Even if you could perfect transportation technology, suburbs are the least optimal configuration for humans to live in the world.

I like living in the suburbs. Dense urban areas create anxiety for me.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#273
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also sounds like it's written by someone who has never used public transport his entire life. In my bus in the morning 70% of the passengers are standing not sitting.

Yeah, higher densities on public transports can be achieved by standing rather than sitting. For instance, BART has been testing removing seats to fit more people into each train carriage [1]. [1]: http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2016/02/04/bart-tests-new-seat-layo...

I think they're removing seats out of desperation. I've was hearing the planned capacity was many, many times smaller than the current ridership. It can take lots of money, political sway, and quite a few years to catch up.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities already tend to have limited parking. We might see more parking structures located in cheap out-of-the-way locations rather than near places people want to go. And street parking could go away in favor of consolidated parking structures, freeing up road space for both car traffic (with extra lanes) and foot traffic (widen sidewalks). But I think it'll have an even larger effect on suburban areas. Shopping cent…

Let me spell out the argument more: Instead of 100 people owning 100 cars they drive 5% of the time, they could own 10 summonable cars that drive them around 50% of the time. The first scenario requires 95 parking spots. The second only 5. There is still as much traffic on the roads, and as much transport work being done, but most of the space now needed for parking can be put to other use.

Experience with car share services suggests this isn't the case.

Source: Personal conversation with ZipCar analyst.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#275
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that would be a good thing? Without need for parking, commercial districts could get denser and denser, and people could have nice large homes far away for cheaper than ever. If the cars aren't causing pollution or gridlock, what's so bad about living in the suburbs?

Electric cars cause pollution; they run on mostly coal or natural gas and have very toxic-to-mine, manufacture, and dispose-of batteries. They also emit just as much particulate emissions as normal cars: http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/electric-car-particulate-m... The way to "save the planet" is to not drive. Driving a 5000# vehicle around thinking you're doing good for the environment is just the marketing genius…

>Electric cars cause pollution; they run on mostly coal or natural gas.

There's also a ton of energy going into the cracking of crude into its constitutions parts before it even enters the supply chain for use in ICE vehicle.

Further, centralized power generation does a much better job at filtering and removing toxic elements from its discharge stream than gasoline/diesel vehicles filtering mechanisms do.

Notwithstanding the above, fossil fuel electric plants can be removed from the grid and replaced by cleaner energy solutions without having to replace or modify the consuming vehicle.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#276
I have stock in Solar City and I don't care if I lose it all. It's not my life savings though. I invested because I enjoy day dreaming a similar dream to what Musk must be dreaming. Like any great science we just have to try and be excited, together. We can all banter about economics, rationality and history but I'm stoked. Who cares. I don't see how Tesla or SolarCity failing would lead to mass starvation or anything so let's strap in and be pumped!

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#277
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford can have fewer employees per car because they're at full scale, they've outsourced nearly all their engineering and have outsourced their sales as well via an antiquated dealer model. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk

Say what you will about their "antiquated" business practices, but Ford consistently does one thing that Tesla never does: it turns a profit

And they will go the way of Nokia and Blackberry if those practices don't change pronto.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#278

Elon Musk is like the cat who tried to jump from the sofa to the top of the bookcase, fell to the floor in a tangle of wildly gyrating limbs, and is now sitting there quietly licking its paw like it was intending to do that all along. Even with his brilliance he's fooling no one into thinking the SolarCity merger was actually in his plan- there are some synergies, sure, but they're easily outweighed by the added corp…

The specifics probably weren't in his plan, but in various interviews he's talked about the consumption of energy (vehicles) and the generation of energy (solar) as being two sides of the same coin. Elon is the one that told his cousins to start a solar company after all.

IIRC he originally saw three major fields to move forward on: the Internet, Transportation/Energy, and Space. By the sounds of it he was thinking of these as early as high school, to at the latest some time after he sold his first company (Zip2). He did the Internet thing pretty well, now he's working on the other two. This is someone who does think on these scales. Keep in mind, as the article itself points out, that you're an idiot if you think starting a car company is a good idea. Energy was the whole point all along. A company for its own sake isn't in Elon's DNA. That would probably just be too boring for him.

Whether this specific merger is a good idea or not is a different question. And I also don't think the emergence of cheap supercomputers in the form of geek-subsidized graphics cards and their applicability to a particularly effective machine learning genre would have been predicted by anyone.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. They'll be able to line the entire trailer with batteries. Elon's pretty good at physics and engineering: if he says this can be done better than existing gas-powered semis, you're not going to be able to prove him wrong with some back-of-the-envelope arithmetic, as if he hadn't considered this. Obviously he has and knows it will work. Tesla didn't get this far on vague conjecture. 2. Maybe so, but it will happen,…

> 1. They'll be able to line the entire trailer with batteries But that's an enormous inversion of expense that falls on the trailer owners. The tractor-trailer model works so well because it concentrates complexity and cost in the tractor. At present trailers are mechanically fairly simple and require only routine servicing with a basic toolkit. They draw power from their tractor. An owner can maintain a fleet of tr…

Semis sound like a better market for hot-swapping and renting your battery compared to consumers. The rollout is a bit more straightforward since the travel routes are more obvious (weigh stations or truck stops).

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#280

A digression from the mainstream discussion. I woke up this morning feeling sullen (many factors involved). I didn't feel like going to work. I could hardly get out of bed. I just sat for a few minutes staring in the vacuumn. Something told me to check Hacker News (I am trying to avoid it in morning), and the top link was this. I went through it twice. It instilled hope and enthusiasm in me. I woke up in an instant a…

You might want to seek some help. Unless you're just being dramatic here for effect, there are some red flags in your post such as not being able to get out of bed, being filled with self-loathing and despair, etc.

I'll second this. Having suffered from chronic depression for decades, those symptoms are very familiar.

While there are always ups and downs in life, general disconnection with the world would be good to dig deeper into.

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