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SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

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261–270 of 347 posts

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work for Orbital as a NASA contractor. I never dealt with the business end of things, but the margins were small and very stable so long as there was work to be done (i.e. a giant (sub)contract on some huge NASA project). It wasn't exactly a pressure cooker of a work environment. The government stuff was a very different atmosphere than the commercial side.

I too am a former Orbital employee. I worked on the sounding rocket program. It was very much a pressure cooker because of the incessant pressure to work more overtime and do more missions in less time. I always heard that other parts of the company were far more laid back. Wish I had worked in one of those parts.

Yeah, I worked there for 6 years, mostly at Goddard on the HST project. It was very relaxed - to the point of boredom at times (that's why I left, despite the insanely cool work). The guys in Virginia (where I worked about a year or so, but still on NASA stuff) told a different story about the Orbcomm and other commercial rocket businesses. I have no idea what it's like today though.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#262
post #203
post #24

Well, that was an unexpected and uncontrolled structural disintegration. e: On the upside, happy birthday Elon, I hope you enjoyed your really awesome fireworks!

I am willing to bet that he's far from happy right now.

According to gossip over at /r/spacex, he's screaming at the engineers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3beu7w/rspacex_crs7...

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#263
post #256

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

ULA's record with its current generation of Atlas 5 and Delta 4 boosters is 83 successful launches and no outright failures. This is an impressive reliability record, no doubt about it. However, it is fair to note that this is the "current generation" Atlas and Delta. The first Atlas was used during the Mercury program, so they've had more than 50 years of design refinement to get to that point.

Also what does "no outright failures" mean?

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

For some context, that's roughly the cost of a single instrument for the Hubble (~$100M). There's no free lunch in the space business...

But do realize that the replacement cost of an instrument is much lower than the original creation cost; most of the cost of these things is designing and tooling, and not part of the unit cost of the actual article.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#265
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ULA's record with its current generation of Atlas 5 and Delta 4 boosters is 83 successful launches and no outright failures. This is an impressive reliability record, no doubt about it. However, it is fair to note that this is the "current generation" Atlas and Delta. The first Atlas was used during the Mercury program, so they've had more than 50 years of design refinement to get to that point.

Also what does "no outright failures" mean?

I assume they mean "failure to accomplish mission", as opposed to "things didn't work correctly but the outcome was still successful."

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#266
post #71

I think (of course just an uneducated guess) things were going poorly from the beginning. It just looked slower than usual. Also, it looked like some of the engine exhaust was in places it should not have been several seconds before the "anomaly". I hope they get everything figured out and get back on track soon. Best wished.

I noticed that too, seemed slow clearing the tower, I thought it was mo imagination, or the camera angle.

I find all SpaceX launches to be "slow" compared to (some) other launches. But this is mostly due to the Falcon not having any solid rocket motors: These produce a massive amount of thrust (far higher than liquid engines) and thus a high accelerating force right from the beginning. You can see that in e.g. Shuttle launches or the recent Vega launch (all solid motor), compare them to other liquid-only rocket motor launches.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

True. Also don't forget the opportunity cost of the time lost: 1) building a replacement and waiting for a spare slot in which to launch it, 2) engineering, manufacturing, and other resources which could have been used for (and likely were planned for) something else, but now are used for the replacement, and 3) the project the asset was used for, and its output (revenue, research results, etc.), now put on hold. Man…

Keep in mind that several copies of a satellite will be built during production. Some are mockups of a few subsystems (e.g. structure), some are used for tests (e.g. thermal, electrical, interference), often there's also a "flight spare" which is an exact copy of the satellite in case something goes wrong with the flight hardware (e.g. broken during testing, launch failure).

E.g. Curiosity has such a spare (I'm not sure if it's the same as the flight hardware or close enough) which will be sent in a future mission (I think 2017, though I don't have any sources at hand) with (some) different experiments on board.

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? It heavily depends on the cost of the asset. If a satellite costs close to 1bn, it worth to use $110/launch but more reliable rocket.

For some context, that's roughly the cost of a single instrument for the Hubble (~$100M). There's no free lunch in the space business...

There're much more expensive satellites. See, for example, http://www.space.com/11606-rocket-launches-missile-defense-s...

Re: SpaceX – Launch Vehicle Failure

#270

Costs and catastrophic failures:[1] * United Launch Alliance (Boeing and Lockheed Martin): 0 "outright failures" and 83 successful launches, ~$110 million/launch * SpaceX: 1 failure and 18 successful launches, $60 million/launch If you are looking for someone to launch your assets into orbit, who do you choose? [1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-destroyed...

Average cost for successful launch:

* United Launch Alliance: $110 million

* SpaceX: $63.5 million ($60 million * 18 total / 17 successful)

So SpaceX saves you $46.5 million per successful launch. If we assume that 1/18 SpaceX launches fail, then in the long run SpaceX wins as long as your typical payload cost is less than $46.5 * 18 = $837 million.

If we assume that the cost to replace the payload for a failed launch is less than the original payload (R&D costs are amortized, so it's likely that building a second payload is much cheaper than designing and building the first payload), then the break-even payload cost can be even higher.

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