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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#262I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…
Never thought about Amazon, but I did completely expect Facebook to tank. Apparently I underestimated their level of deviousness and willingness to manipulate people. I don't even think I want to take a guess on OpenAI. I just don't think they can deliver a good product that aligns with my own moral compass, while trying to generate profit for shareholders.
For the first year or more after IPO Facebook's stock was completely flat. I bought around the IPO and it went down significantly and only recovered after a couple years. I stupidly sold at that point once I'd had about a 10 or 15% gain.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#263Non profit files for IPO should be the headline.
I understand what you're saying, but strictly speaking is it fair to say they aren't profitable? Didn't they along with other participants of LLM-race invest heavily into the infrastructure and the said infra wasn't yet delivered.
My understanding is that it's unreasonable to claim a hotel isn't profitable when they're still on the building stage.
I do understand that we don't have enough energy to turn it on when all of them are delivered, but that's a separate issue.
e: gah. Answered to the wrong post. Sorry.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
All that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story. My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all.
I would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end…
> I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like
There's laws and shit about that. You can't just immigrate to a country illegally.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.
Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. Go figure.
Current chinese AI company valuations (USD):
Knowledge Atlas Technology (Z.ai): 57B
MiniMax Group: 26B
Deepseek: 45B (rumored)
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end…
That's such a cynical take. If everyone does what you're describing, we will never make progress as a society.
Progress towards what? Do you think "progress" as conceived by sillicon valley billionaires aligns with the type of life you would like?
There's a non-trivial chance "working hard" as defined by the modern ethos is doing more damage than good.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
In this case, Elon has moved the wildly unprofitable XAI into SpaceX. SpaceX will IPO with a trillion dollar valuation, while only releasing a small number of shares for public trading. Due to the high valuation, index funds are required to buy SpaceX stock, which Elon will presumably slowly sell them in order not to crash the stock. The funds will be left holding the stock, while eventually the price will crash, bec…
> Elon will presumably slowly sell them in order not to crash the stock. The funds will be left holding the stock, while eventually the price will crash, because the company will simply not make enough money to justify the valuation. Musk owns about 50% of SpaceX. You are saying he is planning to sell the vast majority of that holding at a gradual pace that will not be noticed by anyone but fast enough to get a high…
I'm sure there are multiple ways to profit from the situation. Even having just a small fraction of the shares publicly traded, while the index funds keep the price high is a huge win for him, as his net worth will be extreme on paper.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#268Earlier quoted context omitted.
Index funds buy companies, for the most part, according to their market capitalisation. They own more of bigger companies than small. There's the option of "equal weight" or other strategies but the overwhelming majority is market cap weighted. Index funds are also really, really big now and contain a lot of money earmarked for retirement/pensions. In theory if you had a temporarily very frothy market into which you…
Ok, but how does this "hold the bag for the oligarchs"? And which specific oligarchs do you have in mind when you say this? Are you thinking of Sam Altman and Dario Amodei and Elon Musk?
Index funds will prop up the valuations of these companies, while they return nothing but value on paper. The owners on the other hand can use the valuation as collateral to loans, which then generates cash for them. Musk and Altman would be the most visible benefactors of this scheme, yes.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#269Non profit files for IPO should be the headline.
No because they are not a non-profit since 2025.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#270If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"
> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…
Companies still pay 5k and more for a basic website. 5-10k is quite affordable.
Investment is not basic math. Its also dependencies to US companies, trust etc.