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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#261

Post by watwut »

hungryhobbit wrote: post #231
riazrizvi wrote: post #224

Ppl don't understand Commercialization is not incidental to the Western system, it's why we beat out Communism. Commercialization incentivizes ppl to build, bc ownership and control. The FSF was not an attack on commercialization, it was about giving users more freedom with their own copy. AI commercialization is why we will always be a few steps ahead in AI. The Chinese and Russians are free to join us. It's a picku…

This is both true and insightful, but the "its us capitalists vs. communists" framing obscures some very important details. For one, "Communism" is presented as a single monolith, but it's not: it's socialism PLUS despotism. The despotism part is really important! China/Russia/etc. fail because they try and control things top-down, instead of letting the market decide. However, you can have socialism without despotis…

China has pretty much market economy and is not socialist at all. These economic changes happened years ago. Russia has no communism either.

China is despotic in its treatment of political dissent and human rights, but not in economy.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#262

Post by ThunderSizzle »

stevenhuang wrote: post #259
elteto wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Local models will never compete with large SOTA models, in the same way an iPhone doesn't compete with supercomputers doing nuclear simulations. They paths will differentiate and split. Probably SOTA models will eventually be locked down and only accessible to state actors because of how expensive they will be to run (already started with Mythos).

Current local models already compete.

A Qwen3.6-35B-A3B or whatever it's full name is, when on a 3090, can at the very least, with very little fine tuning, compete with Haiku and blows away GPT4.1 (aka, the cheap models).

It might keep up with Sonnet 4.5 with some tinkering.

But long story short: it seems to have better performance and similar quality for a payoff of a year or so compared to cloud models. In the same way you can self host faster/easier/cheaper than cloud hosting, if you are okay with the negatives.

I'm returning my 3090 soon for a R9700 after some more basic benchmarking, since the higher RAM should improve my observations more.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#263

Post by AngryData »

pzo wrote: post #114
embedding-shape wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm not doing capitalism right, but isn't it supposed to be "The one who profits the most wins"? If you win by just spending, I think you need to adjust the parameters of your capitalistic market.

There is a reason in capitalism we have anti-monopoly law or preventing dumping prices because those often leads to monopoly. So yes for sure you can kill your competition by just dumping money and loosing profits.

That also assumes the monopolized market is profitable enough to pay for the dumping, but right now we are still questioning if LLMs have such high value on the market. Yeah its great for programming, but is the majority of the population benefitted enough to all start paying for access lke many investors expect? Someone might have looked at the low cost and massive lifting capacity of hydrogen balloons in the past and seen a lot of potential profit but if investors had dumped money to monopolize the hydrogen balloon market they would have lost their ass.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#264

Post by blahblaher »

yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

Because the US cannot imagine anything else. Everything is a War, and the US must always win..

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#265

Post by parliament32 »

> Many people use the wrong scorecard.

Correct. "Revenue" is the wrong scorecard when they're selling 20$ bills for 15$. I too can make a bajillion dollars in revenue with that strategy.

Show me a company not speed running the uber/doordash playbook and we can talk.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#266

Post by hx8 »

rich_sasha wrote: post #65
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

I think you need to reevaluate your definition of the singularity. "outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales" could apply to the enigma machine just as much as Claude. Even an AI beyond human intelligence doesn't automatically qualify as the singularity.

The singularity has to do with the rate of technological development.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#267

Post by 000000000001 »

yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

>They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise.

I'm pretty sure they've been exposed for smuggling GPUs into the mainland because they can't ramp up fast enough, only reason we got Deepseek v4 before GTA VI

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#268

Post by [deleted] »

mejutoco wrote: post #116
boothby wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why misspellings and homophones are tells of human righting. LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity.

> righting. > LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity. Is this an elaborate joke or your full-word misspelling of writing is both agreeing with your statement (word substitutions) and contradicting it (not semantic but only pronunciation similarity)

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#269

Post by Hinrik »

nradov wrote: post #193
bayarearefugee wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone does invent ASI then everyone else will shortly after even if its entirely independent because all of the players in this space are just making incremental upgrades by throwing more compute at the problem. There are no magic leaps of true innovation happening anywhere that can't be replicated everywhere. The only shocking thing about "AI" technology is how ultimately simplistic it all is at a core level. So…

There is zero evidence that the current LLM scaling approach could ever result in true ASI. If I start driving south from Seattle then I'll eventually reach Los Angeles. How long will it take me to drive to Honolulu?

If the car you're driving has achieved super-intelligence and is capable of evolving and self-replicating, then life, uh, finds a way.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#270

Post by chris_money202 »

jmyeet wrote: post #121
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

So I got curious about the progression of processing power, specifically how long ago did a GPU have equivalent to the latest iPhone chip? The iPhone 17 Pro has the A19 Pro, which has ~2.5 FP32 TFLOPS. The RTX 5090 has ~100 TFLOPS, so a factor of 40. Obviously there are higher end cards than the 5090 and FP32 performance is only one of many metrics so nothing about this is perfect but it is interesting. The first con…

Ehhh, the question comes down to can you cool a chip with ~100 TFLOPs in the size of an Iphone package. Not really as much about the cost of the chip itself or if you can cram it in.

Packing in more transistors, sure probably possible, packing in more transistors while keeping it cool enough to touch? Totally different ballgame

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