Earlier quoted context omitted.
> But somehow competence has completely vanished. It was pushed out, by force.
It was voted out, by the electorate.
It was replaced, by the tech bros.
US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
261–270 of 486 posts
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#262I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…
Short, medium and long-term this will spur the world to move off of fossil fuels. I'm not a fan of war, especially this stupid one, but that one benefit may be, unintentionally, worth it.
In the short term, Trump is actually paying people to stop existing solar and wind projects and is not exactly open to new ones starting up. So.. oil it is then.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#263I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…
> I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. The war is not over. I wouldn't even be so sure as to say Iran is in a good place right now. Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. For the US, the only pain is inflation, which is more a matter of political capital than anything tangible. Trump is a lame duck preside…
Besides inflation, American has other problems like running out of missiles and bombs. This war is about attrition, and American weapons are being attrited faster than Iranian ones.
The war is not over, but I would not count out the Iranians going for another strategic goal not mentioned in the GP post: make is so that the American president that attacked Iran loses the midterm big time.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those are real wages. We would expect to see that during a sudden jump in inflation. Wages tend to lag inflation. The other interesting part in that article is that excluding fuel and food still shows 2.8% inflation - only 1% attributable to food and fuel. Makes it seem like the main article and this article have different spins. Edit: Wow people are jumping on this. The point is that food and fuel increases account…
I will say, this past inflation spike has completely broken the assumptions I had from 1970s economics that employers would raise their 'cost of living' raises to keep pace with inflation. My employer seems to think 2.5% is fine, as they've done it multiple years in recent past with only one extraordinary year netting 4%. I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'
> I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'
The wage-price spiral now happens when people move. I've definitely noticed that average salaries for my role (data person) have increased singificantly since 2020 or so.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#265Frankly, it is a miracle that inflation is this low. Markets have not fully metabolized the impact from the closure of the Persian Gulf.
I keep thinking this but... line keep going up. I've seen reporting that energy prices won't return to pre-war levels this calendar year, even assuming an immediate return to the status quo basically right now (which seems unlikely). I find the whole thing really confusing. The facts I can see with my own eyes suggest high inflation and this surely means no substantial rate cuts (which... the market has expected) if…
> what are we missing here?
Markets is just gambling but the gamblers wear suits and pretend things are respectable.
It doesn't need to make sense, line just needs to go up. It works until it doesn't.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
offical inflation numbers are just LIE and wrongg for decades. Now you see it yourself. Via wrong numbers, they steal trillions
you’re not totally wrong but it’s not the outright lie you seem to imply. things like tweaks to the “standard basket” that they claim are in line with consumer preferences, which themselves changed because of inflation, for example, are one way we get a sort of hidden shrink flation.
But it is a lie, all the basics are skyrocketing and all the useless tech gadgets are getting cheaper (or better, which counts as deflation for them). If food is 30% more expensive but cars/TVs are 0% more expensive but 10 times "better" you get an overall "3% inflation"
They adopted a new way to adjust inflation in 1990, and since then everything has been perfect lmao: https://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#267I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…
The US oil industry is making massive amount of money directly from the people of the US on the inflated prices, since their domestic supply and refineries are unaffected. It also perfectly matches the actions a foreign country trying to harm the US would take. There's so many terrible options to choose from!
The west coast doesn’t actually have pipelines to receive oil from the mountain/Midwest regions, and Alaska has been declining for a while now. So California mostly gets oil from Brazil (not affected) and Iraq (affected).
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#268Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
And if Iran drops or threatens just a single nuke, I doubt there will be left any arguments.
They don't have nukes or would've already done that.
No, they wouldn't, and they don't have it because they have chosen not to. There is something called an escalation ladder: you do not threaten to leave or kill your partner just because she spilled milk on your floor. That is the same reason Russia did not use nukes, and why other nuclear armed countries involved in conflicts have also avoided using them. The same logic applies here. Another example is that the US could bomb the Kharg island containing Iran's oil infrastructure, but that would be a major escalation. Iran would then have no reason to show restraint and could bomb the oil infrastructure of the Gulf states, creating a worldwide crisis.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
It doesn't matter who "wins" the war, it's already a strategic loss for the US, like every single conflict the US went into since ww2. If they can't just blow the problem away with bombs they invariably and inevitably fuck it up, and as it turns out you can't bomb away that many problems
> like every single conflict the US went into since ww2 Depends on how you connect conflicts to strategic aims. The US won the cold war. Could they have done so without all the military conflicts? Further, what's the best way to maintain a strong fighting force? By fighting. The US needs wars to maintain it's fighting muscle.
> The US won the cold war.
They won it so hard they're not even aware it's still going on...