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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

261–270 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#261
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

[flagged]

Not really seeing the connection there. You buy low and sell high.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#262

Criminal probe into this started last month. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...

I think they made off with at least $200M

that is "too big to prosecute against extremely creative and well paid law firm" territory

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#263
I don't see many comments here about the actual topic. Such is the case with anything Trump related.

Needless to say, though I consider Krugman to have failed at practically every prediction he made in his NYT columns, his point is very valid.

No one should stand for this. Unfortunately a very bad precedence has been set by many politicians in the US.

I find it hard to see that this would ever change if the governing authorities are as tame and neutered as they seem to be.

Ultimately it is a question of how to root out corruption. And it must be a path 90% agree on. I don't see it as helpful to become emotive.

The real curious part to me is why there are such large reactions when neither the US nor the Iranians seem to be truthful and seem to agree even on what they disagree on...

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#264

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

actually futures market is hardest to rig compare to options and stocks but markets are also efficient they say.

hard to win at a game where 97% fail in the long run.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more evidence if any was needed that the US is now definitively in a late imperial phase of decline - US elites have become corrupt. This is classic decline of empire stuff. So no you can't stop it, but knowing that does at least let you make decisions with more clarity in your own life

I'm just glad I'm alive to witness it. Ww2 is what finally sank Britain's declining empireafter ww1, I'm hoping Iran and maybe a global war finally knocks them off that top spot and the east takes over

Be careful what you wish for.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#266
post #95

The corruption is a welcome byproduct of Trump's role as a Reality TV host who has to keep the conflict going and Hormuz closed. The fact that he is talking peace again now is just because he cannot attack before the meeting with Xi in mid May. The real issue is US energy dominance and control of the sea routes. Which Krugman does not mention, because the effort is bipartisan and he probably likes it. The US literall…

I think you’re giving Trump too much credit. If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out. There is no chess game here. It’s not even checkers. He is just trying to not have to admit he made a mistake - just with billions of dollars and lives on the line. Such sad.

This administration literally told congress that it has a right to bomb Iran again without congressional oversight specifically because there's a cease fire in place. I wish I was kidding. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g4xexy4w7o

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, more specifically, by 2020 he was sending military boats to attack Iranian targets and trying to force Russia to respond. He only stopped because of COVID.

If it were that obvious we would have specifically heard it it predicted. Maybe someone did but I didn’t hear it, and I listen to politics daily. Expressing a desire to take Greenland but not actually doing so was a move out of his book Art of the Deal.

> If it were that obvious we would have specifically heard it it predicted

People absolutely predicted Trump military adventurism in the 2024 election cycle! It failed to break through in the media because of a deliberate reflection attack that leveraged a bunch of leftie memes about Biden/AIPAC/Israel to pretend that it was really the democrats who wanted endless war.

So that's what low info voters heard on their televisions. But the smart people in print were 100% warning about this kind of thing.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#268
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You have a curious habit of comparing your opponents to Nazis. You should be careful, that's +40 points on the crackpot index.

nazi/fascists do indeed refer to the rothchilds a disproportionate amount. nothing crackpot about it

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#269
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a curious habit of comparing your opponents to Nazis. You should be careful, that's +40 points on the crackpot index.

nazi/fascists do indeed refer to the rothchilds a disproportionate amount. nothing crackpot about it

[flagged]

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#270

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

Isn't there a 50% chance you are betting on the "insider" side of it?

Yes. It's a conditional probability.

P(W | You're a sucker) = 0.5

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