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If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

shankwiler.com

261–270 of 333 posts

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#261

These are so intensely annoying. Besides the obvious choice of not pushing any button, so very rarely -- if at all -- are there only ever 2 options. The entire "thought experiment" leans into some fantastical unrealistic scenarios and plays on peoples "fast thinking" by saying here are 2 options I made up, tell me which of these 2 groups (us or them) shall I sort you into? Neither.

I think you've missed the point of a thought experiment entirely.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a dilemma because pressing blue or red reveals about your political orientations and your inner empathic responses (i'm assuming both are correlated). Not everyone is wired the same or agrees on politics. Though in a sense, i agree it's not really a dilemma because only sociopaths pick red in real life. See also intense and spontaneous cooperation in times of crisis (catastrophe, war, etc). See also research on…

Nah pretty much everyone picks red if it was a real scenario. It's also bizarre to call everyone picking red a sociopath because they don't want to gamble their life on some naive and idealistic view of humans.

Believe what you want, the numbers disagree with you. As for the sociopath label, assuming psychopathy and sociopathy are the same thing, egocentrism and impaired empathy are central traits.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#264

These are so intensely annoying. Besides the obvious choice of not pushing any button, so very rarely -- if at all -- are there only ever 2 options. The entire "thought experiment" leans into some fantastical unrealistic scenarios and plays on peoples "fast thinking" by saying here are 2 options I made up, tell me which of these 2 groups (us or them) shall I sort you into? Neither.

I think you've missed the point of a thought experiment entirely.

I get the point, I simply find the methods these types of thought experiments use hold no real psychological or philosophical value. I could see gaining insight/value by using the actions of creating, asking, or answering within the unrealistic bounds (or even my objection) of these fantastical hypotheticals designed to reveal basic human behaviour as some kind of party trick -- to be the real psychological/philosophical thought exercise though.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#265

This question has multiple layers of thinking: 1. People who can't read pick randomly. 2. People who can read, but are too dumb to model or care about other people pick red. 3. People with enough intelligence for basic cognitive empathy pick blue. 4. People a little smarter and think through game theory overall pick red, and think they are smart for doing so. 5. People smarter than #4 and capable of seeing the big pi…

So… you're 6?

Yes. Group #6 is optimal because everyone in group #4 appears selfish and uncaring for others. Group #5 has the moral high ground, but actually voting with group #5 is risky. Therefore the best option is to virtue signal you are in group #5 and get the moral benefits, but vote with group #4 and guarantee survival. Group #6 gives you the benefits of both.

This is similar to Newcomb's two-box paradox, where the optimal strategy is deception. The winning play is to preemptively convince everyone you're only going to take the second box, but then actually take both.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#266
If everyone has to press a button and is not allowed help to do so, then there's various people who may not be able to properly choose and presumably, half of them will hit the blue button. There's blind and colour-blind people as well as young babies or even people in a coma, which raises the question of whether a button is pressed on their behalf.

One way round the dilemma is to make it optional as to whether to press a button and in that case, it would seem to be sociopathic to press the red button as that increases the chance that blue button pressers get killed. The best choice in that circumstance is to not play the game which is surely the moral choice too.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#267
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The blues sound like idiots. Press the red button you survive, or press the blue button you might die

Press red and you might kill.

Driving on a road while fully abiding road rules might kill people who aren't doing that (e.g. pedestrians walking across the highway).

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#268
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's naive to think that 100% of people will press the red button. Those who press the blue button are trying to save those who press the blue button. If they weren't trying to save each other, they wouldn't have to.

So you agree, there is a population of blue pressers. EDIT: The mere existence of blue-pressers makes being a red presser violent and selfish in my opinion.

no it just makes blue pressers dumb & dangerous, they create a problem just to show of their false artificial moral high ground.

Red presser did nothing, blue pressers did everything to themselfs

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#269
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downside of redding is that some portion of the world probably dies and you now have to live in that worse world that if you and 50% of the rest of the world has just blued, would not have happened.

But why would those pick blue? They have the same incentive to just pick red.

Or maybe the colors were chosen knowingly to mess with the minds of the US voters? Me as a non-american I would choose blue, damn those mind games I'll go with MY beliefs that the world deserves a chance - and die by them if need to. Because the whole rationalization in the post just underlines the feeling I have about US politics nowadays: let the world burn if I can get once more mayo on my burger.

PS and the whole article may be bait to trigger exactly this kind of proofs.

Re: If more than 50% press blue, everyone survives. Red pressers always survive

#270
post #54

This is like a prisoner's dilemma, but with no payoff for the risky option. In a prisoner's dilemma, you can choose a risky option (stay quiet), but the potential reward is that if the other prisoner also stays quiet then you both go completely free. But if one prisoner instead speaks up and accuses the other prisoner, the accuser gets a short sentence and the one who stayed quiet gets a max sentence. But in this sce…

The downside of redding is that some portion of the world probably dies and you now have to live in that worse world that if you and 50% of the rest of the world has just blued, would not have happened.

> have to live in that worse world

What makes it a worse world?

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