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Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

hex.ooo

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Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#261
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (No real spoilers in my comment): > Proceed to spoil the whole game

What did I spoil? That you keep dying? They'll encounter that very early in the game. And if you look around, you'll see that quite a few quit the game because they didn't understand that dying is normal. The lack of knowledge about the other two items I mentioned are also reasons people stopped playing the game. If you don't know them, the game becomes an incredible drag . Even I would have quit if I didn't know abo…

I haven't played the game, was interested in it (I've heard of it before, just haven't gotten around to playing it yet), and I was a bit bummed to read about this unusual game mechanic without discovering for myself.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#262
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right — they're not reasoning, they're generating text that statistically models reasoning. Anyone who says differently is selling something.

Language has reasoning encoded within it.

It certainly does. But so too do complex neural network functions, as do attention mechanisms.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#263

This is one of those stories, just like the SR-71 "ground speed check" story, that every single time I see it posted I just have to read the entire thing again. I love it.

Agreed. Don't forget the "Can't send emails farther than 500 miles" one, too [0]: 0: https://web.mit.edu/jemorris/humor/500-miles

The network electrically incompatible with Excel:

https://old.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/9si6r9/postmortem...

https://old.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/9si6r9/postmortem...

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#264
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in South America a bit really showed me this. I think it's a cultural thing here but someone will always give you an answer, even if it's wrong, confidently . It was hard for me at first- I am usually the first person to say "I don't know" (often followed by "but let's slow down and find a good solution").

I've experienced similar with some Southeast Asian cultures as well. I'm a patient person, but it can be frustrating to have to endure 10 minutes of verbal diarrhea that eventually results in a "no" or "I don't know".

Over the last couple of years, I've spent a lot of time in Indonesia. By the time I got used to their way of communicating, I questioned my own reality, perception and sanity. I even put a thought it's some very passive way of gaslighting foreigners. It seems it's just how they like to do it here.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“housing is not tied to labor costs in a significant way”. ~30% of new construction is labor. ~50% of repair is labor. Have you ever dealt with home repair or building or are you just regurgitating whatever the LLM told you.

> ~30% of new construction is labor. And what percentage of a house's price is the building? > ~50% of repair is labor. And how much does the average home owner spend on repairs a month? I've been in my current house for almost 3 years. I've had one significant repair that would have cost around 3k. I did it myself but that was the quote. Not too bad. In places where people are concerned about a housing shortage, the…

> And what percentage of a house's price is the building?

Anecdotally like half, depending on the area. Plots of land go for $500k in Boston suburbs and new construction homes go for $1m.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#268
post #146
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have to talk to LLMs?

Another way to say the same thing: "to talk to most people in my life lol I don’t have to spend dozens if not hundreds of dollars a month"

There are lots of free LLMs, but you (often) pay for the good ones.

There's lots of people with lots of opinions, but you (often) have to pay for the good ones.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#269

>INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER Boy, it sure would be nice if real LLMs were capable of giving an answer like that.

This is exactly like a lot of customer service, or technical support.

It seems that they are loath to tell anyone “no”, or that something can’t be done, or that an app doesn’t have a feature or can’t be used in a certain way. Especially when a feature has been removed for security reasons.

In fact, it gets so crazy that I simply cannot get a straight answer out of somebody and if I persist in my line of questioning and they become evasive or vague or I just can’t get a straight answer for long enough, ultimately, I suspect that the answer is “no”, and that they're simply not allowed to tell me, and they're paid and trained specifically to avoid uttering the “n-word”.

In my first job, as a network operator, my supervisor admonished me, and said “we must never tell a customer that we don't know something”. He said that we should tell the customer that “I will go ahead and find out for you, and get back to you on that”.

And that is kind of the kind of slippery non-answer I often received in my most recent job, that some manager or supervisor would “look into something” for me and “get back to me”. But the ‘getting back to me’ part never happened, and I began to suspect that it was a platitude meant to satisfy me enough that I would shut up for a while, and stop pressing the issue.

Re: Isaac Asimov: The Last Question (1956)

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“housing is not tied to labor costs in a significant way”. ~30% of new construction is labor. ~50% of repair is labor. Have you ever dealt with home repair or building or are you just regurgitating whatever the LLM told you.

> ~30% of new construction is labor. And what percentage of a house's price is the building? > ~50% of repair is labor. And how much does the average home owner spend on repairs a month? I've been in my current house for almost 3 years. I've had one significant repair that would have cost around 3k. I did it myself but that was the quote. Not too bad. In places where people are concerned about a housing shortage, the…

> In places where people are concerned about a housing shortage, the majority of the cost is land.

This is true in constrained areas like SF bay area. Back when I was digging into real estate economics, I found data on this from HUD, they have a price indicator dataset. https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp1901

Also look at the Lincoln Institute, they have fantastic studies.

In places like San Francisco, 80% of the value is in the land. In other places, it's 15-35%. The historical national average is about 33% but now it's a bit higher.

Completely different economic rules dominate in constrained areas like San Francisco versus unconstrained areas like Phoenix. But most housing is in unconstrained areas, the constrained areas are expensive elite sections. In most of the country, house prices track construction costs, and the high land prices are effectively economic segregation that weed out antisocial people, causing these areas to be even more desirable and sought after, which raises the bar even higher. All "nice areas" are nice because of gatekeeping, and in the US this is usually high land prices. Traditionally, each city had its own immigration policy, and they would chase out of town people who weren't seen as productive or who were antisocial, and as a result, you would have poor people living on the outskirts of towns.

In places like SF, richer people move in, house prices go up but there is not much change in the population. In other places, more people move in and more housing is built.

A lot of the debate surrounding housing boils down to people imagining a world where SF housing rules applies and thinking this is appropriate national policy, or others looking at national datasets and thinking this would apply to places like SF. Much of housing and land economics seems counterintuitive, for example how cities get less dense over time, e.g. https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/working-papers/pers...

But once you learn how to think about it, it all makes sense.

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