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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#261

Post by jfengel »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #242
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy? -- [0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private…

The stock market wasn't designed to be gambling. You're buying a piece of a company. They want people to come so they can raise money for expanding businesses. If insider trading benefits some at the expense of others, people won't come.

Obviously it has come a long way from that, and the markets have become more like gambling. You could probably allow insider trading at this point and the system would continue just fine.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#262

Post by dasudasu »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #242
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy? -- [0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private…

Non-insider trading is liquidity. That’s why people pay for retail trading volume (payment for order flow). Not because of nefarious reasons. Just because it represents liquidity. With no liquidity it’s impossible to enter or exit trades efficiently.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#264

Post by mastax »

okhobb wrote: post #183
jfengel wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they're appropriately priced, you can't win money at all, unless you have insider knowledge.

The purpose of prediction markets is to communicate insider knowledge.

That isn’t how they were pitched to the FTC but it does appear to be their ultimate use case.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#265

Post by slashdev »

jfengel wrote: post #258
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Stock markets also want to keep executives honest. When the insider can affect the outcome, it creates bad motives. They don't want the CEO selling a bunch of puts, then deliberately tanking the stock. Not for the other bettors, but because the institution is about business. Prediction markets are doing a bit of that. Some won't take bets on an assassination.

You can bet on assassination. There are polymarket prediction markets for leaders of many countries where you can bet on if they will cease to be the leader by X date, for any reason.

If they get assassinated, those markets will resolve to yes. At least the rules don't specifically exclude that.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#266

Post by [deleted] »

dasudasu wrote: post #262
TeMPOraL wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy? -- [0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private…

Non-insider trading is liquidity. That’s why people pay for retail trading volume (payment for order flow). Not because of nefarious reasons. Just because it represents liquidity. With no liquidity it’s impossible to enter or exit trades efficiently.

[deleted]

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#267

Post by efromvt »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #242
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy? -- [0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private…

Hmm yeah it depends on your definition of insider. If you assume all raw information is public-ish, a market can reward those who can synthesize/operate on that knowledge to predict better. (The cars in the lot, etc. there is friction to this discovery; the knowledge can be communicated to others through the market after discovery to profit off the initial cost of discovery). There is symmetric competition to some degree. If you have true non public knowledge (I’m going to say something to tank the stock on this date) then you are purely extracting value from others because you will always win; they will never have that info and the incentive for anyone else to participate in price discovery would go away.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#268

Post by [deleted] »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #242
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

Why would encouraging non-insider training be desirable in the first place, other than to create a more high-status form of gambling, with higher spouse acceptance factor than smoke-filled room poker games? People with no inside knowledge[0] are just trading on vibes, how is that useful for the economy? -- [0] - Or external knowledge, but actual knowledge - thinking of hedge funds stalking CEOs as they fly in private…

[deleted]

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#269

Post by mzelling »

The fact that the strategy makes zero returns suggests that Polymarket is unbiased — this is moderately interesting.

Has anybody looked into the repo in more detail? I imagine it's useful for infrastructure inspiration to build your own bot pursuing more differentiated trading strategies.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#270

Post by Muromec »

_cadp wrote: post #255
miki123211 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of any price-based system is to communicate knowledge, not necessarily insider knowledge. There are actually two theories on insider knowledge. One states that allowing insider trading is beneficial, as it allows prices to better match the underlying reality, the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse. Stock markets lean heavily towards the second the…

>the other states that this discourages non-insider trading, which actually makes the prices worse This theory is fundamentally not credible, the other side of any trade you make on the stock market is essentially always going to be vastly more sophisticated than you. Insider trading makes zero difference to the end-user. The credible argument against insider trading is that it's a form of theft. You are making trade…

I would say corruption and not theft
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