Yeah this is really bad news for Israel. America does not have the resolve for a major ground invasion, and Israel cannot intercept missiles indefinitely.
Missile defense is NP-complete
261–270 of 446 posts
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an assumption here that the value in improving defenses is the same as improving offensive weapons. That is not the case in the assymetry that drones provide and Russia is the first example. Russia has not been able to improve AA capabilities to the point where it's "safe", for any definition of the word, neither has Israel. Israel and Gulf states often tout over 90% interception rate yet it's really at the…
I don't see how drones don't make all conflicts into WW1. 100 Billion dollars buys about 3.3 million Shaheds assuming the manufacturing is not made more efficient. There are many questions on whether its possible to spend 100 billion dollars on Shaheds, or launch all of them. But this is more than enough to destroy any logistics and transportation infrastructure necessary for a ground invasion. There are many many co…
From my extremely uneducated point of view it seems like that is true and probably what is already happening in Ukraine. However, at some point robots might be able to take and hold ground, and maybe they can be designed to require only decentralized, automated infrastructure to operate that is hard to strike economically even with drones. At that point, may the side with the most robots win.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#263I spent some time reconstructing the current US missile defense interceptor numbers. This was done from open source DoD data, CSIS P-21 procurement exhibits, and CRS reports, that are are in depth, non partisan, objective policy analyses written by experts at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) specifically for U.S. Congress members. Also used Lockheed/RTX financial disclosures. The numbers are pretty bad… Way w…
Not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusions, but you aren’t factoring in other European or Korean interceptors the GC have been using. Israeli production. Fighters and other systems can be used for drone defense - lasers, AA guns, Manpads, EW, microwaves - Ukraine’s drone on drone defense and other solutions will be implemented asap.
The math is still brutal
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#264Whatever that means.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no amount of math that can make up for the lopsided dynamic of hypersonic missiles. The only reason the “iron/gold dome” con job was even plausible to plunder trillions in U.S. Monopoly money was because missiles were crude, slow, and not MIRVed or had decoys at one time. That was a long time ago though. MIT Prof. Emeritus, Theodore Postol, has been trying to warn about this basic, mathematically proved frau…
I agree that a barrage of maneuvering missiles can be neigh impossible to defend against. Regarding these cluster munitions though, other than very densely populated areas, do they inflict much damage ? Are they more powerful than a grenade, say ? It's going to devastating to soft tissue surely, and pierce through ordinary sheet metal, but normal concrete walls might offer sufficient protection. Unless, of course, it…
> Regarding these cluster munitions though, other than very densely populated areas, do they inflict much damage ? Are they more powerful than a grenade, say ?
Also not an expert, but I get the feeling that "cluster munitions" is pretty much an umbrella term.
Because of the CCM [1], we tend to associate the term with the "ligther" variants, which are used as anti-personnel weapons. These variants probably wouldn't be much more destructive than a few grenades.
But what Iran is currently using, appears to be missiles with 500-1000kg payload. This puts each submunition in the 50-100kg range. This should deliver a lot more of a punch than a grenade. Also, because of their weight, they probably wouldn't be covered by CCM, had Iran ratified it.
And, yes, it is unsettling geeking out on this stuff, that may actually be killing people as we write our comment.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munition...
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#266The author explains that this problem is actually adversarial, in the sense that the attacker gets to observe defenses and allocate warheads and decoys accordingly. Thinking of our current circumstances, this suggests another cost of war: our offensive capabilities, as well as our defensive capabilities become more observable. Our adversaries are studying our strengths and weaknesses in Iran, and they will have a muc…
This is absolutely true, but there is a strong counterpoint: You also learn the limits of your own systems and how to operate them most effectively yourself (and better than adversaries can, too). Just to pick a recent example: Russian air defense in the early stages of the Ukraine war was dismal (more specifically: defense against big, slow drones like Bayraktar), despite having sufficient AA capability "on paper"--…
> I'd expect much more value from validating and improving your equipment and its handling than the actual "cost" of revealing its capabilities to adversaries in almost every conflict.
That depends on how far out of touch your reputation was with the facts. If you're not able to live up to your preexisting reputation, being tested is all downside even if it improves your actual capabilities.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is an assumption here that the value in improving defenses is the same as improving offensive weapons. That is not the case in the assymetry that drones provide and Russia is the first example. Russia has not been able to improve AA capabilities to the point where it's "safe", for any definition of the word, neither has Israel. Israel and Gulf states often tout over 90% interception rate yet it's really at the…
Air defenses do not need to be 100% effective to be... effective. Russia cannot keep Ukraine from targeting their oil infrastructure, yet here Russia is, still fighting on. Ukraine cannot prevent Russia from targeting their energy infrastructure or apartment buildings, yet here they are, still fighting on. If we're talking about strategic/civil air defense, then you must figure out what's tolerable to your population…
The difference being, Ukraine has no choice but to fight on.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#268Gaming this out for peer adversaries is mostly moot, right? The post-Cold War strategic balance has mostly hung on MAD. And Russia, in particular, has responded to any attempt at building missile shields with more capable missiles. It's likely more relevant for asymmetric conflicts that involve conventional weapons, and would enable an otherwise less resourced adversary to become a near peer. Dennis Bushnell from NAS…
Eh, he threw so much random stuff at the wall that some of it is bound to stick. An early slide in his presentation says there will be "no pixie dust," but that's 90% of what follows.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is absolutely true, but there is a strong counterpoint: You also learn the limits of your own systems and how to operate them most effectively yourself (and better than adversaries can, too). Just to pick a recent example: Russian air defense in the early stages of the Ukraine war was dismal (more specifically: defense against big, slow drones like Bayraktar), despite having sufficient AA capability "on paper"--…
There is no amount of math that can make up for the lopsided dynamic of hypersonic missiles. The only reason the “iron/gold dome” con job was even plausible to plunder trillions in U.S. Monopoly money was because missiles were crude, slow, and not MIRVed or had decoys at one time. That was a long time ago though. MIT Prof. Emeritus, Theodore Postol, has been trying to warn about this basic, mathematically proved frau…
MIT Prof. Emeritus, Theodore Postol, has been trying to warn about this basic, mathematically proved fraud for many years now.
Indeed, there are any number of very smart people who made up their mind 40 years ago in opposition to Reagan and SDI.
Surprisingly, very few of these folks have evolved their position over decades of changes in the strategic and technology pictures:
Defensive systems can’t work and are inherently destabilizing even though everyone knows they can’t work.
(I’m modestly agreed on the second point!)
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, if it was acting rationally the US Would not have spent billions trying to blow up an 80 year old man while massively increasing the price of oil and fertiliser globally leading to economic instability But the US has not acted rationally. It hasn't since January 2021.
There could be a rational explanation if you assume US administration is compromised by Russia and Ayatollah's son wanted him out to assume power. One phone call to Putin, Putin's one phone call to Krasnov and everyone is happy. Son gets the power, Russia gets sanctions lifted, higher oil price, US and allies spend kit that cannot be now sold to Ukraine, Krasnov gets to play the stock market. Win-win-win.
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