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BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

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Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#261

Post by michaelteter »

nxm wrote: post #136
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is fading though, we are only arguing about the magnitude of its velocity and acceleration at this point.

Is it though? Dollar is appreciating in times of turmoil? And what’s the alternative - the all talk Europeans?

I may be misinterpreting your comment, so forgive me if I am.

When Trump began the trade wars (tariffs), it caused many countries to reconsider their alliances and operations. What you can see is a great shift away from the USD in many areas. This is not temporary, or at least not short-term.

Once trade alliances are formed between parties that exclude the US, those groups seek financial paths which are more stable and unrelated to the volatile path they previously took.

As for the EU, they have an insane task: trying to provide fairly equal voice to a large number of stakeholders. EU was a very idealistic concept, and I'm surprised it made it this far. But they should not be discounted. They may be slower to react to situations by virtue of their necessary processes, but they will eventually get it.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#262

Post by tencentshill »

WarmWash wrote: post #237
tencentshill wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs were on track to being mainstream 20 years ago. See the other story about the 90s GM EV1 and associated documentary. All the technology was there in 1999, but every EV in development simultaneously shut down once they started becoming usable.

We're not going to pretend that energy density in batteries was anywhere near ready for prime time in 1999. Maybe niche around town cars owned by those willing to sacrifice to have something cool/unique. The EV1 was a $70k car (2026 dollars) with economy car size and fittings, with a 75mi range and 3 hour charge time. There is no conspiracy, the tech wasn't there yet.

My point is it would have developed quicker if it wasn't shut down entirely after that.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#263

Post by michaelteter »

danny_codes wrote: post #171
nxm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it though? Dollar is appreciating in times of turmoil? And what’s the alternative - the all talk Europeans?

Presumably China given OPs comments. It’s going to be a multi-polar world. The US will continue to be among the top powers for decades to come. We’re simply exiting an unusual period where China isn’t leading/among the leading pack of countries. The rate of US relative decline will be set by our policy decisions and cohesion. As we are apparently electing malicious narcissists with dementia to our highest office, a m…

I think what you will see is what happens in the body when it becomes starved - it will start eating itself.

We have already begun to see this. The middle class is no longer expanding, nor is the poor (by meaningful terms). Worse, the poorest class - largely made up from immigrants - legal or otherwise - are being driven away.

Life in the US has been relatively comfortable for a few generations now. So current healthy (age-speaking, not fitness) generations have no idea how to revolt. Ironically, we may see change come from the southerners with guns who eventually decided they had been deceived by the people they voted for. After all, both sides cowered on Jan 6. Just imagine if "representing your constituents" was a do or die scenario. The US is mostly far from that scenario if a supreme leader is not directing the masses.

Unfortunately, as with many other fallen empires, I think it will take a LONG time for things to recover. The idealistic principles which the US claimed to be founded upon are largely not present now - the freedom from oppression, the freedom of/from religion, and the concept of fair representation.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#264

Post by eqvinox »

fainpul wrote: post #169
eqvinox wrote: post #149

I'm in Shenzhen currently. Do you know how quiet the city is, even during rush hour? It's amazing. All because almost every car is electric. Even the damn scooters. It'd actually be enjoyable to be outdoor in downtown if they fixed the air pollution… (some of which of course powers these cars… for now.)

EVs are only quiet when driving very slowly. At about 50 km/h (30 mph) they are pretty much the same as ICE cars. What's the general speed limit where you are?

I'm seeing variable speed signs displaying 40 km/h during non rush hour daytime on "normal" streets, and some 60 on main thoroughfares.

Honestly if they honked a bit less that might make a large difference too...

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#265

Post by lelanthran »

nico wrote: post #9
jrjeksjd8d wrote: post #3

I finally put my money where my mouth is and bought a PHEV. In the past month I've done all my errands around town exclusively on battery power (30-40 miles per charge) from a home L1 charger. I know EV purists will complain about the complexity of maintaining the gas engine, but this hits the perfect sweet spot for me - it doesn't weigh a million tons, it cost under 40k new, and the one weekend a month when I need t…

I think plug-in hybrids are the perfect combo. You get amazing flexibility and if you mostly drive locally, then 80-90% you are probably purely driving electric When we bought are last car, I would've bought one of those if there had been a Toyota or Honda minivan. We ended up going for a regular hybrid instead. Hopefully this category gets adopted by more car makers

> I think plug-in hybrids are the perfect combo.

I think they're the worst. I don't want additional points of failures after all. I want fewer points of failures.

I want all-electric or all-ICE. If I changed cars the minute they were freehold (i.e. long-term rental), then sure, all that extra points of failure is irrelevant.

Right now, with reliability of ICE cars the way they are, my daily driver is a 2004 VW, and there does not seem to be any indication that it will need replacement in the future.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#266

Post by mbgerring »

caminante wrote: post #260
mbgerring wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you need to “discard reliability”? What do you think storage is for? People have been saying that solar will never work for my entire life, and my entire career in clean energy, as I have watched it grow and grow and grow and grow. You’re right that the interconnect queue is broken. Many, many people are working on this problem. Believing that an extremely tractable bureaucratic hurdle means that solar can’…

No, solar reliability requires overbuild and storage to compare accurately on LCOE. Hybrid and overbuild = expensive, so not "cheap/er", which you said. A lot of people have this misconception about solar even with awareness of the duck curve.

Is this still true after a bunch of natural gas infrastructure got blown up this week?

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#267

Post by caminante »

mbgerring wrote: post #266
caminante wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, solar reliability requires overbuild and storage to compare accurately on LCOE. Hybrid and overbuild = expensive, so not "cheap/er", which you said. A lot of people have this misconception about solar even with awareness of the duck curve.

Is this still true after a bunch of natural gas infrastructure got blown up this week?

> Solar and batteries have been and will continue...

Yes, your statement is still false. Opposite is true.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#268

Post by brnt »

macintux wrote: post #67
nico wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think plug-in hybrids are the perfect combo. You get amazing flexibility and if you mostly drive locally, then 80-90% you are probably purely driving electric When we bought are last car, I would've bought one of those if there had been a Toyota or Honda minivan. We ended up going for a regular hybrid instead. Hopefully this category gets adopted by more car makers

Extra weight, extra drivetrain complexity, and many owners don't actually charge their hybrids so they're getting worse mileage. Tradeoffs everywhere, so "perfect" is very much not the word I'd apply.

I do not know about huge American cars but in Europe a small engine weighs less than a big battery.

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#269

Post by seanhunter »

cogman10 wrote: post #89
paxys wrote: post #31

Genius strategy by the USA to disincentivize EVs, disincentivize solar and wind, increase dependency on oil & gas, and...start a war that makes oil and gas more expensive for everyone. Markets are now forecasting oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel for multiple years . Best of luck to the economy.

> Markets are now forecasting oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel for multiple years It'll never go below $100 a barrel. It went bellow $100 a barrel for the last few years because as US shale processing came online, opec decided to also keep production high which cut oil prices from $100/barrel to ~$50/barrel where it's roughly stayed for the last decade. There's not another "new way to extract oil for cheap" t…

I also recall in passing that Venezuela has massive oil reserves, but they are in tar sands and are therefore only economic when the oil price is high[1]. And who tried to take effective control of Venezuela’s oil production? Oh…

[1] although the estimate is around $50 per barrel full-cycle cost https://incorrys.com/energy/oil-supply/international-oil-sup...

Re: BYD is seeing a flood of new EV buyers

#270

Post by seanhunter »

Pxtl wrote: post #122
cogman10 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Markets are now forecasting oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel for multiple years It'll never go below $100 a barrel. It went bellow $100 a barrel for the last few years because as US shale processing came online, opec decided to also keep production high which cut oil prices from $100/barrel to ~$50/barrel where it's roughly stayed for the last decade. There's not another "new way to extract oil for cheap" t…

I think that's the important distinction. > Israel and Iran are both destroying oil extraction and processing facilities in the gulf region This isn't like Katrina where oil infrastructure was being temporarily evacuated, shut down, and taking some water and wind damage. The oil infrastructure is being blown to smithereens. And not just pumps that are sucking oil out of a hole in the ground. Refineries. Big expensive…

Additionally, the geology of oilfields is complex. They are like huge sponges made of rock with oil in the gaps. Because the oil production techniques involve injecting fluid into the field to extract the oil, if the oilfield isn’t managed correctly, it’s possible for it to shut down and be difficult to restart production even if you could rebuild the infrastructure.
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