Live data from Hacker News

What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

mitsloan.mit.edu

261–270 of 418 posts

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? Do you have evidence that the ultra wealthy are actually taking this into account? Over a human timeframe every ultra wealthy person has access to plenty of “climate change safe“ locations, no particular advance planning is needed.

Getting citizenship requires planning.

Only if the local government is still intact, which in this scenario is unlikely. At the very least they could bribe their way in.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#263
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries Source? For unemployment, isn't the U-3 definition used for "headline unemployment" consistent to most other countries?

It is. Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. That said, measurement is not as easy today with so many gig workers. Government data is often driven by proxies because its too hard to measure directly and the number of people getting an llc for their uber/doordash/lyft/etc job is throwing off our m…

> Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office.

To be fair, CNN and MSNBC do the same in reverse.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're trying to thread the needle of a collapse bad enough that they'll retreat to their bunkers, but not so bad that their bodyguards will turn on them for their gold. Let's see how it works out!

The smart play is goats (for meat and milk), ammo, and maybe some silver if you want some ready "cash". You can barter the meat/milk, and even the ammo (but it has other uses).

I would bury a bunch of gold coins and act like it's my last one from the family heirlooms anytime I spent one. Shaving off chunks of a gold bar makes it pretty obvious there's more at the source. But yeah, ammo will be the new currency.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical in many ways. It's rare that collapse of an empire can be pinpointed to a single day. And what you saw was a result of shock therapy imposed from the outside. I doubt that would happen to the US. It's unlikely collapse will be felt as a singular, apocalyptic event. More like a slow, steady loss of influence and excess wealth. Countries on the periphery stop considering…

Britain's demise was relatively swift, and took place over the course of the two world wars. It fell almost immediately into vassalage, under the US. Not quite a bang, but not as drawn out as you suggest. Its former colonies experienced all I described above and more. In this case, the colonies are most of the world: where are the bases? Everywhere. With the States, here's the scenario, not too far fetched. We will s…

I put the collapse of Britain's empire at around 75 years, which is faster than the Ottomans or Spanish empires, but still nothing compared to the Soviets, which to reiterate, was an historical anomaly.

As for the US, for all the current turmoil, the dollar is still supreme in global economics, its soft power is still immense, despite the immigration chaos its still the primary destination for immigrants, and it would take decades for countries to push out our military bases because doing so would often mean building up their own military infrastructure.

Trump's unconstitutionality is a threat, and that the US has a series of bubbles built on shaky economics is not controversial. But I don't see how that could possibly result in a Soviet style singular day of collapse. At least internally, there isn't a cultural and linguistic separation between states the way there was with Russian imposition on their Soviet satellite countries.

And of course, there's the previously mentioned shock therapy, something that wouldn't have the same level of violent effect because the US is already a market economy. And there's nobody powerful enough to impose something like that on us regardless. Unlike the Soviets, if the US goes down, much of the world goes down with us, so there's strong incentives for an off-ramp, not a destabilization.

I agree there are major structural issues, and the US democratic system is being stress tested daily, but its all symptoms of decline, not imminent collapse.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

There’s a great opera on this topic called “Death and the Powers”, a trillionaire who transfers his consciousness to get out of his ailing body and, free from dependency on others, loses all empathy, while trying to convince the rest of his family to join him in cyberspace (thereby killing themselves), lots of themes of what you lose when you become disembodied, and becoming rich is just getting half way there.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

Damn! I just nuked a long conversation with ChatGPT outlining my pet theory that with changes in scale of energy regimes (labor->wind/water->coal->oil->solar) we get an excess energetic capacity that means our entertainment systems can't handle! That excess spills out as elite political retrenchment, entertainment jealousy, and (finally) violence, expanded civil rights, and a new entertainment regime. Mostly tongue i…

Try not to talk with LLMs too long, you’ll start talking like them faster than they adapt to you.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think when Europe failed to handle Ukraine on their own, the optics started looking pretty bad.

I honestly don't even understand what you mean by that. Europe has accepted an extraordinary number of refugees from Ukraine giving them immediate and full rights to live and work within its territory, keeps donating billions of dollars worth of goods to keep Ukraine going, provides training to Ukrainian military personal and ramped up its military production specifically to bolster Ukraine. How has Europe failed her…

If the US wasn't around, Russia would likely be rolling around most of Eastern Europe today. From 2022 to 2025, America and Europe went dollar for dollar in support of Ukraine. And many of the Euro dollars went to purchasing weapons and defense from the US.

Euro leaders are terrified by this. Europe, which is supposed to have global parity with the big players, was just as much (maybe even more) of a paper tiger as Russia. But unlike Russia they have a big friend who has lots of money and lots of weapons.

For the average European who has only ever know life under the protective wing of NATO (read: America), this is just Tuesday. For the versed European leader, who needs to ensure their country can be safe if America goes away, it's totally harrowing. Even more harrowing when your population doesn't understand the need for defense.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#269
post #62

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

Don't forget how violence is considered wrong no matter what. It's created a situation where the rich are protected by their money and exaggerated value of human life pushed by the rest of the population

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is overly optimistic and a "it hasn't happened to me yet so who cares" view. World War 3 has started and DHS is killing Americans and rounding up people in the street because one side was able to convince the country that the only thing to do was destroy and hurt a lot of people including themselves. That's not better than my past and it is significantly worse in a lot of ways. I haven't even received a cost of…

We were speaking about economics. But I’m sorry anybody who thinks World War III has started has had their brain warped by propaganda even worse. You probably didn’t mean to illustrate my point but you did perfectly. World wars happened when large numbers of countries had mutual aid agreements that were triggered. Those largely don’t exist anymore outside of NATO. See how literally nobody is putting troops on the gro…

I will start by stating that none of the media landscape is referring to it as World War 3. That is a conclusion I made myself.

Further I think “the economy isn’t as bad as it could be so everything else that doesn’t directly affect me is propaganda and all the problems right now in the world are perfectly fine” is the ultimate propaganda. You’re essentially saying “shut up you’re still alive just be okay with the world state even if it’s not desireable”.

You are definitely a maroon. Especially in the way you are talking down and hand waving away my complaints and taking my brief list as the only things that I have an issue with.

Post reply on HN