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2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

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Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#261

Post by mncolinlee »

confluence wrote: post #121
hyperbovine wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to get an electric car that affords me as much freedom as a fossil burner I /only/ need to drop $102k? Sign me up! /s Electric cars will have won when normal people can afford them. I hope that'll be soon, but it's definitely not the case right now.

You can -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf . It'll take a few more years for mainstream adoption - but it'll hit. Tesla Model S is like the Apple I - only rich smart people own them. The Apple II is when things get really crazy - that's when middle-class smart people own them. See plan here: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-p...

Actually, you can go cheaper than the Leaf, but it's not quite as nice. Mitsubishi makes the I, which costs $22,000 after rebate.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#262

Post by mncolinlee »

jblow wrote: post #228
freehunter wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I compared it to a Leaf, it still wouldn't make sense. A Leaf is $35,000 MSRP. The Leaf is built on the same platform as a Nissan Cube ($14,000) and the Nissan Micra ($17,000). I could run the same comparison between the Leaf and the Cube and come up with the same results. Except, if I did that, it might even be worse. See, I picked the Tesla Model S for a few reasons. One being that it's the subject of the debate…

Okay, but ... did anyone ever say that it would save you money? I don't see that in the thread anywhere. I certainly wouldn't make that argument for cars of today. But I see how rapidly the price is coming down, and I see what price targets Tesla is aiming for, and that is pretty interesting. (And if you really want to compare price, it's probably a good idea to try to account for externalities. It's hard to estimate…

Actually, I own a Leaf and it does save me money against buying a comparable compact car like a new Sentra. His math fails to account for the full range of costs associated with a gas-powered vehicle including oil changes and engine maintenance. Also, I drive considerably more than my 17 mile one way commute, so it makes a lot of sense for me.

Here's a great spreadsheet to get the real costs: http://www1.extension.umn.edu/environment/energy/vehicle/

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#263

Post by henrikschroder »

dancesdrunk wrote: post #252
henrikschroder wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A plastic bucket of gas contains more hydrogen than a bucket of liquid hydrogen, and if you put a lid on it the gas will happily stay in the bucket, whereas for the hydrogen you need a pressurized corrosive-resistant container. Hydrogen is not the future, because it's incredibly difficult to handle, we don't have the infrastructure for it (unlike gas and electricity), and the energy density of hydrogen is really bad…

Actually - Hydrogen storage isn't that much of a step above the precautions already needed for LPG; which is now incredibly popular in developing countries. Shanghai, if I remember correctly, made it illegal in 2000 or 2001 to sell petrol scooters in the city - they all run on LPG. Regarding energy density - definitely agree, my own research showed me a 2 fold increase in consumption compared to LPG, which in turn in…

> literally a car running on water.

No, your car would run on electricity.

But why would you want a car that takes electricity and charges up an internal hydrogen fuel tank, then uses that to fuel a combustion engine, when you might as well have an electric car where you fill up the battery, then use that to power an electric engine.

The fundamentals of a car don't change. You need to store energy in the car somehow, and you need to convert that energy into movement somehow.

The benefits of a regular car is that the "store energy in car" part is very easy. You just fill it up at the gas station. The benefits of an electric car is that "convert to movement" is very easy, because electrical engines are very simple.

I completely understand that if you have a fueled up hydrogen-powered vehice, it's awesome - it runs on water!!! - but what do you need to do to get there? And how much energy is lost in conversions along the way? It simply doesn't solve any problems in a better way.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#264

Post by henrikschroder »

mseebach wrote: post #256
moconnor wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although it might not invalidate your argument, you have ignored the residual value of having a 5-year old Model S / Nissan Leaf. We don't know what that will be, yet, but it will probably be higher than the residual value of a 14 year old gas guzzling Toyota truck.

If you're doing prudent financial planning, you have to assume close to zero. The technology is moving very, very quickly, and there's no telling what it will look like in five years and if your present-day car can be retro-fitted to fit into it.

It's not unlikely that breakthroughs in battery technology could be retrofitted into present-day electric car. I can totally imagine that 5 years from now you take your Model S to the shop, and replace your battery with a new and improved with 3x the range. It wouldn't be cheap, but cheaper than a brand new car.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#265

Post by speleding »

kamaal wrote: post #204
lambda wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Batteries are still too heavy > Changing. Rapidly. It doesn't matter how rapidly they are changing; the original comment was saying that they are too heavy now . You can hypothesize about where they will be in 5 years, but that's uncertain and doesn't apply to cars that are available now. >take too long to charge > Improving, rapidly. Much more rapidly than, say, gas mileage. Again, rate of improvement doesn't have…

Just imagine if people in 80's had a similar attitude about internet, where would we be now? If we were to wait for things to get perfectly ready. 90% of the things in this world would never get ready at all.

However, part of the perception that EV cars are almost here is caused by people having gotten used to the blistering pace of innovation in IT. Batteries to heavy? Mwah, "wait a few years and it will be good enough".

In reality, if you look at the weight/power density curve of batteries it has been improving at a pace that 10 times slower than what happened in IT. So it may take decades more to get where we need to be. Just trying to be realistic here.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#266

Post by hyperbovine »

confluence wrote: post #121
hyperbovine wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to get an electric car that affords me as much freedom as a fossil burner I /only/ need to drop $102k? Sign me up! /s Electric cars will have won when normal people can afford them. I hope that'll be soon, but it's definitely not the case right now.

You can -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf . It'll take a few more years for mainstream adoption - but it'll hit. Tesla Model S is like the Apple I - only rich smart people own them. The Apple II is when things get really crazy - that's when middle-class smart people own them. See plan here: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-p...

The leaf has an EPA-rated range of 73mi.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#267

Post by xutopia »

cletus wrote: post #79

The Tesla Model S is a great-looking car but, unlike some, I still don't see electric cars as being the future. Batteries are still too heavy, take too long to charge, are too expensive and require materials that in widespread use will probably become far more of a problem than fossil fuels in terms of scarcity. Of course, there can be and no doubt will be technological innovation in this space but (IMHO) the future…

You forget that horses are still cheaper than cars and yet...

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#268

Post by incision »

tsotha wrote: post #201
incision wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so? Is this a fact, expensive battery replacements after 10 years and all? I really have no idea, but I took a few minutes to try and look it up. At a glance, it looks likes replacing a Prius battery today runs about half a much today as it did 10 years ago. Folks on the Tes…

Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster. Right. The Roadster costs so much it makes sense to replace the battery. But if you paid $30k for a car and the battery costs $12k, it's a different story. Normal people are not going to spend $100k on a car.

Sure.

When I consider the $12K number is from 2010 and folks are estimating a new Model S battery could run as little as $14K...A $30K Tesla sporting a battery that will cost $3K to replace 10 years down the road doesn't seem that far off.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#269

Post by rdl »

BenoitEssiambre wrote: post #212
rdl wrote: post #12

If they can get to volume production, I think the $50-60k models, leased, could be great sellers. The really interesting thing would be to rip off Better Place's model and lease the cars at a discounted monthly payment plus a per-mile "fuel equivalence" charge. It's just accounting, but you could basically price the Model S at BMW 3-series lease rates (or even Toyota Avalon!), plus a per-mile fuel cost which was 10-2…

Why are they giving away Leafs in California? I had read multiple articles about the new lower prices and went on the nissan.ca website to price one here in Canada and it's almost $700/month for a 48 month lease! What up with that?

The car prices are high ($35k or so, at which point I'd prefer to just spend the $50k on the low-end Tesla), but the leases are really cheap. I think it's a combination of tax incentives (federal and state, plus some CARB things) and corporate average fuel economy (selling some EVs makes your average better...). Also, I'm pretty sure Nissan (which has one of the best CEOs in the car industry, Carlos Ghosn) thinks EVs are the future, and wants to be an early strong competitor, just like Toyota did really well with the Prius.

Re: 2013 Automobile of the Year: Tesla Model S

#270

Post by mseebach »

henrikschroder wrote: post #264
mseebach wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're doing prudent financial planning, you have to assume close to zero. The technology is moving very, very quickly, and there's no telling what it will look like in five years and if your present-day car can be retro-fitted to fit into it.

It's not unlikely that breakthroughs in battery technology could be retrofitted into present-day electric car. I can totally imagine that 5 years from now you take your Model S to the shop, and replace your battery with a new and improved with 3x the range. It wouldn't be cheap, but cheaper than a brand new car.

Sure, I'm not claiming that it's impossible. But what if the technological breakthrough is a sustainable way to mass produce bio-fuel?
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