This time is different

Post by sumedh » Fri, Feb 27, 2026, 8:14 AM UTC

keeda wrote: post #242

rogerrogerr wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument is the one that shook me, I’m curious if you think there’s any merit to it: Humans have essentially three traits we can use to create value: we can do stuff in the physical world through strength and dexterity, and we can use our brains to do creative, knowledge, or otherwise “intelligent” work. (Note by “dexterity” I mean “things that humans are better at than physical robots because of our shape and n…

Physical labor, especially jobs requiring dexterity, will be left for a long time yet. Largely because robotics hardware production cannot scale to meet the demand anytime soon. Like, for many decades. I actually asked Gemini Deep Research to generate a report about the feasibility of automation replacing all physical labor. The main blockers are primarily critical supply chain constraints (specifically Rare Earth El…

Post by inigyou » Fri, Feb 27, 2026, 8:19 AM UTC

positron26 wrote: post #71

plastic-enjoyer wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's laziness because they have little CS fundamentals to base such claims on So, what CS fundamentals do you need to evaluate if AI is the real thing, or will disappoint in the future? Until a few months ago, coding agents were met with skepticism, until Anthropic introduced their new model and, with it, a hype train that cannot be rationally justified. Look, SOTA LLMs, and coding agents in particular, are impress…

> However, current predictions about the future of software development (and the world in general) are speculative. It's amazing to me how those willing to seize on the speculative nature of any ANY uncertainty cannot recognize the inherent uncertainty of the inverse. > what CS fundamentals do you need 1. Tarski's undefinability theorem 2. Gödel's incompleteness theorems 3. Curry Howard correspondence And a lot of ex…

Post by inigyou » Fri, Feb 27, 2026, 8:21 AM UTC

jjmarr wrote: post #41

riddley wrote: post #26

Author forgot Segway. Remember when it was going to fundamentally change humanity?

I see hoverboards everywhere, which are the self balancing scooter tech from the Segway. Many little ebikes as well making deliveries. 75% of restaurant orders are delivery now due to widespread personal electric transportation. It already has fundamentally changed humanity. https://youtu.be/KOSUEFqszK8

Post by thevinter » Fri, Feb 27, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC

bandrami wrote: post #246

jwittmayer wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Implying that nobody has put AI generated code into production yet?

Stuff that's going into production now (actual production, not startup MVP production) would have been being written just before Claude Code came out, so pretty much by definition no. There's some copilot-style assisted stuff in the wild, I guess? But not really more of it than pre-copilot so the productivity argument kind of falls through there.

Post by qsera » Fri, Feb 27, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC

rogerrogerr wrote: post #228

massysett wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and despite every single one of these world-changing inventions, people in rich countries still go to work every day, even though UBI is generally not a thing. People claim AI will eliminate large numbers of jobs. Maybe it will, just like the tractor did. But new jobs are created. I would never have guessed that “influencer” would be a thing! This current “AI will destroy all the jobs and make most people useles…

This argument is the one that shook me, I’m curious if you think there’s any merit to it: Humans have essentially three traits we can use to create value: we can do stuff in the physical world through strength and dexterity, and we can use our brains to do creative, knowledge, or otherwise “intelligent” work. (Note by “dexterity” I mean “things that humans are better at than physical robots because of our shape and n…