Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla is committing automotive suicide

electrek.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 458 posts

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#261

Post by NetMageSCW »

elbasti wrote: post #39

Elon's superpower is commanding insane valuation premiums. The trouble with this is that "the bill eventually comes due", so to speak, which forces Elon's companies to take wilder and wilder bets, or to make wilder and wilder promises. With telsa it was robotaxis, and when that failed to materialize, humanoid robots ( fucking LOL ). SpaceX is an even more insane example. They are eyeing an IPO at a 1.5 trillion valua…

> Estimates have SpaceX doing about $3B in annual earnings

Ummm that information seems terribly out of date or is just uninformed- Starlink alone is estimated around $8 billion for 2024 and projected around $12 billion for 2025, with continued growth.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#262

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

NetMageSCW wrote: post #234
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it actually is worth a lot to people. I know dual-professional households who don't even use their dishwasher consistently, and multiple companies have gone bankrupt trying to bring automated laundry folding (which does exist in industry) to the consumer market.

There are a lot of maid services that imply (to me) otherwise.

Maid services are generally expected to handle "everything" for a pretty expansive definition of everything. They pick up scattered stuff and put in a sensible location, they arrange everything visible in an aesthetically pleasing way, they take out the trash, if there's some weird dirt that's hard to clean they creatively problem solve to find a way to get it off. I don't think there's a market for a service that can only handle basic cleaning.

(Will someone eventually invent a machine that can do all of that and more? Yes, probably, and they'll make billions when they do. But Tesla has offered no reason to believe this is on their horizon, and the focus on a humanoid form factor strongly suggests that they're optimizing for media appeal over practical capabilities.)

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#263

Post by scottyah »

stickfigure wrote: post #150

Bipedal robots are dumb. A robot that can only walk around my house is still useless. A robot that can wheel or track or even park in front of my dryer and fold laundry would be incredible. Yet every demo is Robot Jumps And Dances, not Robot Does Something Useful. My theory is that bipedal motion is the "easy" problem, and fine motor control is the hard problem. That makes me bearish on Optimus: A car with questionab…

Bipedal robots are an easy drop-in replacement for humans. It just becomes a software problem for them to do any task we do- your tracks are fun until you want the robot to drive your car, walk around the side of the house, or even go up the stairs.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#264

Post by 3adawi »

cosmicgadget wrote: post #194
alecco wrote: post #60

Strongly disagree with this opinion piece. I think Musk/Tesla figured out it is impossible to compete with Chinese manufacturers in the foreseeable future so they are pivoting.

... away from their top tier models and into the ones that directly compete with China.

their top tier models barely sell any volume, at least for now with Tariffs in most of the west, Tesla can still move huge numbers of Y and 3 but will see how that will go this year with so much movement in geopolitics

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#265

Post by scottyah »

littlestymaar wrote: post #125

I have no issue understanding why Musk does that, he's gone from “weirdo with lost of enthusiasm and charisma” to “batshit crazy, so full of himself there's basically no negative feedback loop anymore”. What I don't understand is why are the Tesla shareholders accepting his bullshit?

Do you actually care why or is this just a rhetorical question so get hn karma?

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#266

Post by NetMageSCW »

rkagerer wrote: post #77
1970-01-01 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Y and 3 do everything the X and S do. I don't see how they could keep making them without eating away sales.

Not really. The Y doesn't even come close on towing capacity.

But the CyberTruck does, though it is an entirely different segment.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#267

Post by 113 »

this_user wrote: post #10

They had the first mover advantage, but then Musk lost interest in the company and let it just sit there for the last five years or so without making sure that they have a future-proof product pipeline and that those products are actually being delivered on a reasonable schedule. Now they are increasingly turning into an EV also-ran while their moonshots are unlikely to work out any time soon. Realistically, he shoul…

I don't think the problem was a lack of Elon Musk's involvement.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#268

Post by 1970-01-01 »

NetMageSCW wrote: post #227
1970-01-01 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are in complete agreement here. They wasted their lead.

They didn’t have a lead. It’s like saying the DC-X was ahead in propulsive landing over F9, or the LG Prada had a lead over the iPhone. Being first isn’t enough to establish a lead. You also have to be in competition, which means selling product.

It is very widely known that GM held a 7 year head start on every other automaker on manufacturing the modern EV. Several other EVs were sold during it's time in low volume.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#269

Post by NetMageSCW »

misiti3780 wrote: post #12

I have to admit, I love my model S and have been very bullish of TSLA but this news makes me very bearish. There is no way they are going to make robots at scale in the next 5 years and the model s and model X are cool pieces of technology. If they dont start rolling out robotaxi extremely quickly to new locations, I cant imagine the stock going anywhere but down.

But the Model S and X are luxury competitors and if Tesla wants to be Toyota/Honda instead of BMW/Mercedes, perhaps they no longer fit in their plans. The issue is they don’t have any other mainstream models besides the 3 and Y. Perhaps they really need bigger CUVs and SUVs that cost less than the X and a higher end Model 3 (like Corolla/Camry or Civic/Accord) to replace them.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#270

Post by foobarian »

duskwuff wrote: post #67
foobarian wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if they are teleoperated they could make sense, or at least more than the device-local versions

A teleoperated robot is little more than a human worker with extra steps. (And an expensive, clumsy human worker at that.) I can't imagine many situations where that would make sense instead of having a human do the work in person.

There could be some compelling reasons for one.

- Services like maids or cleaners are usually scheduled, maybe you have to wait and open the door etc. Maybe they can't make it that day because of snow storm etc.

- Services are normally limited to certain hours. With a remote operator, the robot could do laundry all night ran by someone in a different time zone.

- If needed could be operated in shifts.

- Other new use cases could arise, e.g. wellness check on elderly, help if fallen or locked out etc.

Post reply on HN