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How I estimate work

seangoedecke.com

261–270 of 326 posts

Re: How I estimate work

#261
> When you have weeks or months until your deadline, you might spend a lot of time thinking airily about how you could refactor the codebase to make your new feature fit in as elegantly as possible. When you have hours, you will typically be laser-focused on finding an approach that will actually work.

No, when I have hours, I am laser-focused on pissing off the manager who gave me so little necessary time to do the task. :-)

Re: How I estimate work

#262
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With respect, I think this approach is actually harmful to everyone in the org because you're trying to twist reality to fit a premise that is just impossible to make true: that estimates of how long it takes to build software are reliable. The reluctance to accept the reality that it cannot be made true achieves nothing positive for anybody. Rather it results in energy being lost to heat that could otherwise be used…

Software estimates for projects that don't involve significant technical risk can be made reliable, with sufficient discipline. Not all teams have that level of discipline but I've seen existence proofs of it working well and consistently. If you can't make firm delivery commitments to customers then they'll find someone who can. Losing customers, or not signing them in the first place, is the most harmful thing to e…

> If you can't make firm delivery commitments to customers then they'll find someone who can.

Rather: the customer will find someone who can confidently pretend that thet can make firm delivery commitments.

Re: How I estimate work

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never been involved in planning poker where everyone didn't converge on points = days at least in their own minds. "Hm, that would take me about a day, so that's one point."

Funny, I've never been on a team that did . Otherwise, it would be impossible to have 20-point stories done in a 10-business-day sprint! Under the usual assumption that a single person is responsible for the whole story. For the teams I've been on, a point has usually been more like a third of a day or half a day, i.e. 2-3 hours of uninterrupted concentration, and the 1/2 point card is used rarely. Sounds like you've…

Yeah we had half-point stories. Never remember getting as high as 20. I think we topped out at about 13 and those were usually split if they could be. It's been years since I did planning poker, sort of surprised to hear that it's still in use.

Re: How I estimate work

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s also something more concrete about asking “Can you get it done by end of tomorrow? What does that require?” I prefer it over estimating which feels more like asking the length of a piece of string.

The problem I have is, conceptually a task always looks easy, but then as your coding, you hit several problems that are not simple to overcome - in fact, lot of times these issues turn into almost insolvable problems that blow out any time estimates ;(

It really depends. Anyone doing meaningful work will have hard time giving estimates. But churning up the next CRUD application with now special requirements can have no unknown variables. The question of course remains, why would anyone want to waste their time reinventing a spreadsheet.

Re: How I estimate work

#265

Not a single mention of planning poker and story points? They're not perfect (nothing is), but they're actually pretty good. Every task has to be completable within a sprint. If it's not, you break it down until you have a part that you expect is. Everyone has to unanimously agree on how many points a particular story (task) is worth. The process of coming to unanimous agreement is the difficult part, and where the r…

The post is about project planning, not sprint planning.

> It prevents you from estimating things longer than a sprint, because it assumes that's impossible.

And yet, management wants estimates for a whole project. Projects have to get paid for somehow, and project estimates are a key part of that in many many organizations. Ever wonder why government IT is SO BAD?

Re: How I estimate work

#266
post #175

I don't get the fight against estimates. An estimate is an estimate. An estimate can be wrong. It likely is wrong, that's fine, it doesn't have to be perfect. There is a confidence interval. You can communicate that. Very often something like "6-12 months" is a good enough estimate. I've worked in software a long time and I really don't get why many people think it's impossible to give such an estimate. Most of us ar…

> It likely is wrong, that's fine

It's almost never fine, though. When it's fine, people aren't pressured into giving estimates.

> It likely is wrong, that's fine

The most you can do is say it. Communication demands effort from all involved parties, and way too many people in a position to demand estimates just refuse to put any effort into it.

Re: How I estimate work

#267
post #175

I don't get the fight against estimates. An estimate is an estimate. An estimate can be wrong. It likely is wrong, that's fine, it doesn't have to be perfect. There is a confidence interval. You can communicate that. Very often something like "6-12 months" is a good enough estimate. I've worked in software a long time and I really don't get why many people think it's impossible to give such an estimate. Most of us ar…

You've never had a manager or product person take estimates, even clearly communicated as low confidence or rife with unknowns, as gospel truth? Lucky you.

Re: How I estimate work

#268

Not a single mention of planning poker and story points? They're not perfect (nothing is), but they're actually pretty good. Every task has to be completable within a sprint. If it's not, you break it down until you have a part that you expect is. Everyone has to unanimously agree on how many points a particular story (task) is worth. The process of coming to unanimous agreement is the difficult part, and where the r…

My most productive team did no time estimates at all (short of very very rough project estimates i.e. "yeah I'll work on this project for at least the next quarter then we'll see"), and instead of spending endless time in planning meetings determining how complex a task was, we instead spent that time just doing the thing.

Re: How I estimate work

#269

After owning a product, I've developed a lot of sympathy for the people outside of engineering who have to put up with us. Engineers love to push back on estimates, believing that "when it's done" is somehow acceptable for the rest of the business to function. In a functioning org, there are lot of professionals depending on correct estimation to do their job. For us, an accurate delivery date on a 6 month project wa…

That's why the right way to do it is to have a hard deadline given to engineers, then the engineers cut whatever scope is needed to actually wrap something up by the deadline

Re: How I estimate work

#270

After owning a product, I've developed a lot of sympathy for the people outside of engineering who have to put up with us. Engineers love to push back on estimates, believing that "when it's done" is somehow acceptable for the rest of the business to function. In a functioning org, there are lot of professionals depending on correct estimation to do their job. For us, an accurate delivery date on a 6 month project wa…

"us"
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