Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

loworbitsecurity.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 476 posts

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#261

Post by the_af »

jojobas wrote: post #189
anonymous908213 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maduro may have been aligned with them, but that is a completely different thing than being protected by them. The DPRK is actually protected by the PRC, in the sense that the PRC is willing to and historically did deploy millions of soldiers to push back Americans from North Korean territory.

China, Cuba and Russia sent him air defences and some personal guards. What would China's millions do if Kim was kidnapped? Invade Seoul that had no say in it?

From where would an hypothetical operation to kidnap Kim be launched? Likely from SK or Japan, right? So yes, China could retaliate.

The operation against Maduro was launched from countries in the region aligned with the US.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#262

Post by denkmoon »

fooker wrote: post #245
mandevil wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US built a lot of bunkers like this back in the 1950's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Weather_Emergency_Operat... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_Rock_Mountain_Complex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Greek_Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheyenne_Mountain_Complex With the rise of solid fuel ICBM and then MIRV leading to the truly massive number of warheads pointed at the US, the US switched t…

Where will the planes land?

Given the extent of planning that went into these types of doomsday survival scenarios, I wouldn't be surprised to find there are pre-prepared discreet runways in obscure locations unlikely to be targeted. Not full concrete runways, just a strip of prepared land that would see a 747 land without exploding into a ball of fire.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#263

Post by bccdee »

yakbarber wrote: post #198
themafia wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watching a civilized nation drop a nuclear bomb on an enemy really got into peoples heads. What's worse is.. it worked.

there's a fair argument to make that a nation that drops a nuclear bomb on a city isn't "civilized"

There's a fair argument to make that, by that standard, a civilized civilization has never existed. Atrocity has ever been our giddy companion.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#265

Post by pbhjpbhj »

jojobas wrote: post #108
erxam wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were. For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

[flagged]

What's Trump's kill count at, just to move media focus away from the Trump-Epstein files.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#266

Post by 1zael »

Solid OSINT methodology here. The 10x AS path prepending is the most interesting detail to me b/c typically you'd see prepending used to de-prioritize a route, which raises the question: was this about making traffic avoid CANTV, or was it a side effect of something else?

A few thoughts: - The affected prefixes (200.74.224.0/20 block → Dayco Telecom) hosting banks and ISPs feels significant. If you're doing pre-kinetic intelligence gathering, knowing the exact network topology and traffic patterns of critical infrastructure would be valuable. Even a few hours of passive collection through a controlled transit point could map out dependencies you'd want to understand before cutting power. - What's also notable is the transit path through Sparkle, which the author points out doesn't implement RPKI filtering. That's not an accident if you're planning something (you'd specifically choose providers with weaker validation). - The article stops short of drawing conclusions, which is the right call. BGP anomalies are common enough that correlation ≠ causation. But the timing and the specific infrastructure affected make this worth deeper analysis.

Would love to see someone with access to more complete BGP table dumps do a before/after comparison of routing stability for Venezuelan prefixes in that window.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#267

Post by JasonADrury »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #227
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is enough pain for the US that they wouldn't actually attack Pakistan These are the states whose Senators are in play this year [1]. Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none. Let's go one step further. Pakistan nukes Al Udeid and Camp Arifjan (both theoretically within ran…

> Let's say Trump decides it's fuck-around-with-Islamabad-o'clock. He fucks around. Pakistan nukes at India. How many of those Senate seats flip as a result? I'm going to guess none. If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America In your scenario India did literally nothing. I know the rivalry but even then India has its own nukes and if India wasn't part of the plan then…

>If America does something to pakistan, then pakistan wouldn't bomb India but rather America

This is a mistaken assumption. It is very likely that the nukes would always fly to India unless the US somehow communicated their intent before acting.

In a situation where you're launching nukes in retaliation, you're usually not waiting very long to think about where you're going to be sending them to.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#269

Post by johnsmith1840 »

trhway wrote: post #197
delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

the popular conspiracy theory among Russian opposition is that Maduro exit was negotiated, so he will do small time at a Fed club and would preserve significant amount of his money (at least couple hundreds of millions), and after completing the time will end up with his money in Russia/Belarussia. We can see that nobody was going to resist the operation in Venezuela, so it doesn't really matter that Venezuela doesn'…

80 of their guys died? Not just venuzuelans. If it was negotiated then maduro negotiated his own closest security forces to be killed as a cover.

Not impossible but certainly in the tinfoil hat range of possibilities.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#270

Post by ericmay »

the_af wrote: post #260
delichon wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The high end of the range of death estimates by the two atomic bombs is around 246,000. The estimated range of US military deaths from an invasion of Japan (Operation Downfall) was 250,000 to 1,000,000, and another 5 to 10 million Japanese. Dropping nukes was both barbaric and the more civilized option. Oppenheimer et al. deserve their acclaim. Japan attacked the US first, and by Hiroshima the US had 110,000 dead in…

> The estimated range of US military deaths from an invasion of Japan (Operation Downfall) was 250,000 to 1,000,000, and another 5 to 10 million Japanese. I've read convincing arguments (sorry, I cannot find them now) that this reasoning is mostly bogus. One, the decision of dropping the bombs wasn't coordinated with planners of Operation Downfall, so casualties weren't a consideration. As such, it cannot be "civiliz…

On the other hand, it doesn’t matter how off the estimates were because they’re our people and their lives matter more.

It seems rather immoral to a high degree to send some Americans to their deaths unnecessarily because we didn’t want to use a weapon we had in our possession to end a war that we did not start.

Post reply on HN