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A new AI winter is coming?

taranis.ie

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Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#261

Post by deepsquirrelnet »

subw00f wrote: post #237
swalsh wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I trust it alot, in our tests the times a human nurse picked up on something the AI missed are pretty rare. The times the AI found something the nurse missed are common, almost the majority.

I believe the question was: would you trust it with your kids life? Or your own?

That might not be relevant to OPs use case. A lot of nurses get tied up doing things like reviewing claims denials. There’s good use cases on the administrative side of healthcare that currently require nurse involvement.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#262

Post by lelanthran »

hombre_fatal wrote: post #219
int_19h wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hallucinations that lead to code that doesn't work just get fixed How about hallucinations that lead to code that doesn't work outside of the specific conditions that happen to be true in your dev environment? Or, even more subtly, hallucinations that lead to code which works but has critical security vulnerabilities?

Replace "hallucination" with "oversight" or "ignorance" and you have the same issue when a human writes the code. A lot of that will come to the prompter's own foresight much like the vigilance of a beginner developer where they know they are working on a part of the system that is particularly sensitive to get right. That said, only a subset of software needs an authentication solution or has zero tolerance to some…

> A lot of that will come to the prompter's own foresight

And, on the current trend, how on earth are prompters supposed to develop this foresight, this expertise, this knowledge?

Sure, fine, we have them now, in the form of experienced devs, but these people will eventually be lost via attrition, last even faster if companies actually do make good on their threat to replace a team of 10 devs with a team of three prompters (former senior devs).

The short-sightedness of this, the ironic lack of foresight, is troubling. You're talking about shutting off the pipeline that will produce these future prompters.

The only way through, I think, will be if (very big if) the LLMs get so much better at coding (not code-gen) that you won't need a skilled prompter.

Good luck with that.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#263

Post by lnenad »

m4rtink wrote: post #161
Nevermark wrote: post #76

I am simply stunned at the negativity. Yes, there is hype. But if you actually filter it out, instead of (over) reacting to it in either direction, progress has been phenomenal and the fact there is visible progress in many areas, including LLMs, in the order of months demonstrates no walls. Visible progress doesn’t mean astounding progress. But any tech that is improving year to year is moving at a good speed. Huge…

Yeah, totally agreed - there is still far too little negativity in comparison to what is going on.

I think it primarily comes from people being entrenched in their early opinions that AI is shit and they're now moving goalposts without actually giving it a shot.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#264

Post by Elder_Baker »

observationist wrote: post #171
pwndByDeath wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You appear to be a proper alchemist, but you can't support an argument of understanding if there is no definition of understanding that isn't circular. If you want to believe the friendly voice really understands you, we have a word for that, faith. The skeptic sees the interactions with a chatbot as a statistical game that shows how uninteresting (e.g. predictable) humans and our stupid language are. There are usefu…

Understanding is the thing that happens when your neurons coalesce into a network of signaling and processing such that it empowers successful prediction of what happens next. This powers things like extrapolation, filling in missing parts of perceived patterns, temporal projection, and modeling hidden variables. Understanding is the construction of a valid model. In biological brains, it's a vast parallelized networ…

Looks like somebody used AI to generate this response. XD

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#265

Post by nancyminusone »

Nevermark wrote: post #76

I am simply stunned at the negativity. Yes, there is hype. But if you actually filter it out, instead of (over) reacting to it in either direction, progress has been phenomenal and the fact there is visible progress in many areas, including LLMs, in the order of months demonstrates no walls. Visible progress doesn’t mean astounding progress. But any tech that is improving year to year is moving at a good speed. Huge…

If you like the whole corpus of the internet being turned into 98% filler words, it must be pretty awesome for you.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#266

Post by rdiddly »

To the author's brief list of areas where AI can't be used because it's too risky, I would add "driving on the public roads," but like everything else on the list, it's currently being done anyway.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#268

Post by appletrotter »

fzeroracer wrote: post #247
LatencyKills wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who was an engineer on the original Copilot team, yes I understand how tech works. You don’t know how your own mind “understands” something. No one on the planet can even describe how human understanding works. Yes, LLMs are vast statistical engines but that doesn’t mean something interesting isn’t going on. At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than…

> At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than SOTA LLMs. Humans are remarkably consistent in their behavior in trained environments. That's why we trust humans to perform dangerous, precise and high stakes tasks. Humans have the meta-cognitive abilities to understand when their abilities are insufficient or when they need to reinforce their own understanding, to…

Your response is crazy to me. Humans are known to be remarkably inconsistent in behavior. Please read ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ or at least go back your HS psych 101 notes.

> Humans have the meta-cognitive abilities to understand when their abilities are insufficient or when they need to reinforce their own understanding

Two word reply: dunning kruger

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#269

Post by claytongulick »

LatencyKills wrote: post #48
gishh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…

As someone who was an engineer on the original Copilot team, yes I understand how tech works. You don’t know how your own mind “understands” something. No one on the planet can even describe how human understanding works. Yes, LLMs are vast statistical engines but that doesn’t mean something interesting isn’t going on. At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than…

My brain is able to determine when it doesn't know something.

That does seem to be a bit important for any "intelligent" system.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#270

Post by claytongulick »

Lambdanaut wrote: post #42
gishh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…

You understand how the brain works right? It's probability distributions mapped to sodium ion channels. The human understands nothing.

You understand how the brain works?

You're the one then. All those laggardly neurobiologists are still struggling.

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