261–270 of 496 posts
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They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle
Definitely. When I started doing Machine Learning in 2018, AI wasn't a next word predictor.
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.
This. This sentence reached off the page and hit me in the face. It only just then became obvious to me that to them it's a question of when, in large part because of the MS deal. Their next big move in the chess game will be to "declare" AGI.
'as we have traditionally understood it' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there
https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections#:~:text=We%20believe%...
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…
It's also a misleading view of the history. It's true "most people" weren't thinking about LLMs five years ago, but a lot of the underpinnings had been studied since the 70s and 80s. The ideas had been worked out, but the hardware wasn't able to handle the processing.
> True honesty requires acknowledging that we truly have no idea. Progress in AI is happening faster than ever before, but nobody has the slightest idea how much progress is needed to get to AGI.
Maybe, but don't tell that to OpenAI's investors.
Once we don't need people to make stuff anymore, we need to re-do society so people can get access to all the stuff that's being made. I doubt we do a very good job of that. But otherwise, there's no point in making anything. I guess if we are lucky, the AI overlords will keep us high on soma and let the population naturally decline until we are gone.
I always see a large amount of pessimism about this company on HN, and I accept it might be for rational reasons. What do people think is going to be the most likely outcome for the company, since everything seems to be going so bad for them product/moat/financial-wise? Do people think it will literally go bust and close business due to bankruptcy within a couple years? If not, what else?
If inference stays too expensive, then I don't know what happens, maybe a few people will pay for it.
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>I had a friend who had his Tesla drive him from his driveway in another city 3+ hrs away to my driveway with no intervention. I had anecdata that was data, and it said that full-self-driving is wishful thinking. We cool now?
Good luck on your journey. I think the world is going to surprise you, and you’d be better for opening your eyes a little wider.
The world never ceases to surprise me with its stupidity.
Thanks for your contribution.
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Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately. Good luck with that take
>Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately. Just like self-driving is going well on an empty race track. >Good luck with that take Good luck running into a walking robot in the street in your lifetime.
Look, a time traveler from 2019.
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The "G" part of AGI implies it should be able to hit all the arbitrary yard sticks
Humans are the benchmarks for AGI and yet a lot of people are outright dumb : > Said one park ranger, “There is considerable overlap between the intelligence of the smartest bears and the dumbest tourists.” [1] https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/security_is_a...