Live data from Hacker News

You are the scariest monster in the woods

jamie.ideasasylum.com

261–270 of 405 posts

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#261
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What overwhelming evidence do fossil records provide about human cognition?

We don't need fossil records. We have a clear chain of evolved brain structures in today's living mammals. You'd have to invent some fantastical tale of how God is trying to trick us by putting such clearly connected brain structures in a series of animals that DNA provides clear links for an evolutionary path. I'm sympathetic to the idea that God started the whole shebang (that is, the universe), because it's rather…

>clear links for an evolutionary path

there are clear links for at least 2 evolutionary paths: bird brain architecture is very different from that of mammals and some are among the smartest species on the planet. they have sophisticated language and social relationships, they can deceive (meaning they can put themselves inside another's mind and act accordingly), they solve problems and they invent and engineer tools for specific purposes and use them to that effect. give them time and these bitches might even become our new overlords (if we're still around, that is).

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, you know, the bit where we've now-irrevocably committed ourselves to destabilizing the global climate system whose relative predictability has been the foundation of our entire civilization. That's going to be a ride.

We just need to convince people that the market is an artificial superintelligence. Or maybe… subintelligence.

Years ago a friend of mine observed that we don't need to wonder what it would look like if artificial entities were to gain power and take over our civilization, because it already happened: we call them "corporations".

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#263

I struggle to understand how people can just dismiss the possibility of artificial intelligence. Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution-- why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon, especially after we already demonstrated some parts of those results (e.g. use of language) that critically set us apart from other animals? I'm not buying the whole "AI has no agency" line eith…

It's confirmation bias in favor of faulty a prioris, usually as the product of the person being a cognitive miser. This is very common to experience even within biology, where non-animal intelligence is irrationally rejected over what I like to call "magic neuron theory". The fact that the nervous system is (empirically!) not the seat of the mind? Selectively ignored in this context. The fact that other biologies have ion-gated communications networks as animals do, including the full set of behaviors and mechanisms? Well it's not a neuron so it doesn't have the magic.

"Intelligence describes a set of properties iff those properties arise as a result of nervous system magic"

It's a futile battle because like I say, it's not rational. Nor is it empirical. It's a desperate clawing to preserve a ridiculous superstition. Try as you might, all you'll end up doing is playing word games until you realize you're being stonewalled by an unthinking adherence to the proposition above. I think the intelligent behaviors of LLMs are pretty obvious if we're being good faith. The problem is you're talking to people who can watch a slime mold plasmodia exhibit learning and sharing of knowledge[1] and they'll give some flagrant ad lib handwaive for why that's not intelligent behavior. Some people simply struggle with pattern blindness towards intelligence, a mind that isn't just another variety of animalia is inconceivable.

[1] - https://asknature.org/strategy/brainless-slime-molds-both-le...

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The goal-oriented behavior is rather obvious. Obvious? Is an illusion obviously the real thing? There is nothing substantially different in LLMs from any other run of the mill algorithm or software.

In the same way there's "nothing substantially different" in humans from any other run of the mill matter. I find that all this talk of "illusion" is nothing but anthropocentric cope. Humans want to be those special little snowflakes, so when an LLM does X, there are crowds of humans itching to scream "it's not REAL X".

> In the same way there's "nothing substantially different" in humans from any other run of the mill matter.

This is an incredibly intellectual vacuous take. If there is no substantial difference between a human being and any other cluster of matter, then it is you who is saddled with the problem of explaining the obvious differences. If there is no difference between intelligent life and a pile of rocks, then what the hell are you even talking about? Why are we talking about AI and intelligence at all? Either everything is intelligent, or nothing is, if we accept your premises.

> I find that all this talk of "illusion" is nothing but anthropocentric cope. Humans want to be those special little snowflakes,

I wish this lazy claim would finally die. Stick to the merits of the arguments instead of projecting this stale bit of vapid pop-psychoanalytic babble. Make arguments.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not buying the whole "AI has no agency" line either; this might be true for now, but this is already being circumvented with current LLMs (by giving them web access etc). They don't have agency, because they don't have persistent state. They're like a function that you can query and get an answer. During that answer the LLM has state, but once it's done the state is gone. Humans (and other "agents") have persis…

> During that answer the LLM has state, but once it's done the state is gone. This is an operational choice. LLMs have state, and you never have to clear it. The problems come from the amount of state being extremely limited (in comparison to the other axes) and the degradation of quality as the state scales. Because of these reasons, people tend to clear the state of LLMs. That is not the same thing as not having st…

No, they don't - you can update context, make it a sliding window, create a sort of register and train it on maintaining stateful variables, or various other hacks, but outside of actively managing the context, there is no state.

You can't just leave training mode on, which is the only way LLMs can currently have persisted state in the context of what's being discussed.

The context is the percept, the model is engrams. Active training allows the update of engrams by the percepts, but current training regimes require lots of examples, and don't allow for broad updates or radical shifts in the model, so there are fundamental differences in learning capability compared to biological intelligence, as well.

Under standard inference only runs, even if you're using advanced context hacks to persist some sort of pseudo-state, because the underlying engrams are not changed, the "state" is operating within a limited domain, and the underlying latent space can't update to model reality based on patterns in the percepts.

The statefulness of intelligence requires that the model, or engrams, update in harmony with the percepts in real-time, in addition to a model of the model, or an active perceiver - the thing that is doing the experiencing. The utility of consciousness is in predicting changes in the model and learning the meta patterns that allow for things like "ahh-ha" moments, where a bundle of disparate percepts get contextualized and mapped to a pattern, immediately updating the entire model, such that every moment after that pattern is learned uses the new pattern.

Static weights means static latent space means state is not persisted in a way meaningful to intelligence - even if you alter weights, using classifier free guidance or other techniques, stacking LORAs or alterations, you're limited in the global scope by the lack of hierarchical links and other meta-pattern level relationships that would be required for an effective statefulness to be applied to LLMs.

We're probably only a few architecture innovations away from models that can be properly stateful without collapsing. All of the hacks and tricks we do to extend context and imitate persisted state do not scale well and will collapse over extended time or context.

The underlying engrams or weights need to dynamically adapt and update based on a stable learning paradigm, and we just don't have that yet. It might be a few architecture tweaks, or it could be a radical overhaul of structure and optimizers and techniques - transformers might not get us there. I think they probably can, and will, be part of whatever that next architecture will be, but it's not at all obvious or trivial.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#266

I struggle to understand how people can just dismiss the possibility of artificial intelligence. Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution-- why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon, especially after we already demonstrated some parts of those results (e.g. use of language) that critically set us apart from other animals? I'm not buying the whole "AI has no agency" line eith…

> Human cognition was basically bruteforced by evolution--

"Brute forced" implies having a goal of achieving that and throwing everything you have at it until it sticks. That's not how evolution by natural selection works, it's simply about what organisms are better at surviving long enough to replicate. Human cognition is an accident with relatively high costs that happened to lead to better outcomes (but almost didn't).

> why would it be impossible to achieve the exact same result in silicon

I personally don't believe it'd be impossible to achieve in silicon using a low level simulation of an actual human brain, but doing so in anything close to real-time requires amounts of compute power that make LLMs look efficient by comparison. The most recent example I can find in a quick search is a paper from 2023 that claims to have simulated a "brain" with neuron/synapse counts similar to humans using a 3500 node supercomputer where each node has a 32 core 2 GHz CPU, 128GB RAM, and four 1.1GHz GPUs with 16GB HBM2 each. They claim over 126 PFLOPS of compute power and 224 TB of GPU memory total.

At the time of that paper that computer would have been in the top 10 on the Top500 list, and it took between 1-2 minutes of real time to simulate one second of the virtual brain. The compute requirements are absolutely immense, and that's the easy part. We're pretty good at scaling computers if someone can be convinced to write a big enough check for it.

The hard part is having the necessary data to "initialize" the simulation in to a state where it actually does what you want it to.

> especially after we already demonstrated some parts of those results (e.g. use of language) that critically set us apart from other animals?

Creating convincing text from a statistical model that's devoured tens of millions of documents is not intelligent use of language. Also every LLM I've ever used regularly makes elementary school level errors w/r/t language, like the popular "how many 'r's are there in the word strawberry" test. Not only that, but they often mess up basic math. MATH! The thing computers are basically perfect at, LLMs get wrong regularly enough that it's a meme.

There is no understanding and no intelligence, just probabilities of words following other words. This can still be very useful in specific use cases if used as a tool by an actual intelligence who understands the subject matter, but it has absolutely nothing to do with AGI.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The goal-oriented behavior is rather obvious. Obvious? Is an illusion obviously the real thing? There is nothing substantially different in LLMs from any other run of the mill algorithm or software.

Can you give an example of something that would be substantially different under your definition?

But that's the point: there isn't anything substantially different within the scope of computation. If you are given a set of LEGOs and all you can do is snap the pieces together, then there's nothing other than snapping pieces together that you can do. Adding more of the same LEGOs bricks to the set doesn't change the game. It only changes how large the structures you build can be, but scale isn't some kind of magical incantation that can transcend the limits of the system.

Computation is an abstract, syntactic mathematical model. These models formalize the notion of "effective method". Nowhere is semantic content included in these models or conceptually entailed by them, certainly not in physical simulations of them like the device you are reading this post on.

So, we can say that intentionality would be something substantially different. We absolutely do not have intentionality in LLMs or any computational construct. It is shear magical thinking to somehow think it does.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say we do have a 1:1 representation of the human brain in software. How could we know if we're talking to a conscious simulation of a human being, versus some kind of philosophical zombie which appears conscious but isn't? Without a solid way to differentiate 'conscious' from 'not conscious' any discussion of machine sentience is unfalsifiable in my opinion.

How do you tell the difference in other humans? Do you just believe them because they claim to be conscious instead of pointing a calibrated and certified consciousness-meter at them?

I obviously can't prove they're conscious in a rigorous way, but it's a reasonable assumption to make that other humans are conscious. "I think therefore I am" and since there's no reason to believe I'm exceptional among humans, it's more likely than not that other humans think too.

This assumption can't be extended to other physical arrangements though, not unless there's conclusive evidence that consciousness is a purely logical process as opposed to a physical one. If consciousness is a physical process, or at least a process with a physical component, then there's no reason to believe that a simulation of a human brain would be conscious any more than a simulation of biology is alive.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't intended as an insult and I apologise if it comes across as such. It's easy to say things on the internet that we wouldn't say in person. It did come from a place of annoyance, after your middlebrow dismissal of Penrose' argument as "stupid".

And you do it again, you apologise while insulting me. When challenged you refuse to defend the points you brought up, so that you can pretend to be right rather than be proved wrong. Incompleteness theorem is where the idea came from, but you don’t want to discuss that, you just want to drop the name, condescend to people and run away.

Here are the substantive things you've said so far (i.e. the bits that aren't calling things "stupid" and taking umbridge at imagined slights):

1. You think that instead of actually perceiving mathematical truth we use heuristics and "just guess that it's true". This, as I've already said, is a valid viewpoint. You disagree with one of Penrose' assumptions. I don't think you're right but there is certainly no hard proof available that you're not. It's something that (for now, at least) it's possible to agree to disagree on, which is why, as I said, this is a philosophical debate more than a mathematical one.

2. You strongly imply that Penrose simply didn't think of this objection. This is categorically false. He discusses it at great length in both books. (I mentioned such shallow dismissals, assuming some obvious oversight on his part, in my original comment.)

3 (In your latest reply). You think that Godel's incompleteness theorem is "where the idea came from". This is obviously true. Penrose' argument is absolutely based on Godel's theorem.

4. You think that somehow I don't agree with point 3. I have no idea where you got that idea from.

That, as far as I can see, is it. There isn't any substantive point made that I haven't already responded to in my previous replies, and I think it's now rather too late to add any and expect any sort of response.

As for communication style, you seem to think that writing in a formal tone, which I find necessary when I want to convey information clearly, is condescending and insulting, whereas dismissing things you disagree with as "stupid" on the flimsiest possible basis (and inferring dishonest motives on the part of the person you're discussing all this with) is, presumably, fine. This is another point on which we will have to agree to disagree.

Re: You are the scariest monster in the woods

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you critique my understanding of his argument? 1. Any formal mathematical system (including computers) have true statements that cannot be proven within that system. 2. Humans can see the truth of some such unprovable statements. Which is basically Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_... Maybe a more ELI5 1. Computers follow set rules 2. Humans can create ru…

That's too brief to capture it, and I'm not going to try to summarise(*). The books are well worth a read regardless of whether you agree with Penrose. (The Emperor's New Mind is a lovely, wide-ranging book on many topics, but Shadows of the Mind is only worth it if you want to go into extreme detail on the AI argument and its counterarguments.) * I will mention though that "some" should be "all" in 2, but that doesn…

Is it too brief to capture it? Here is a one sentence statement I found from one of his slides:

>Turing’s version of Gödel’s theorem tells us that, for any set of mechanical theorem-proving rules R, we can construct a mathematical statement G(R) which, if we believe in the validity of R, we must accept as true; yet G(R) cannot be proved using R alone.

I have no doubt the books are good but the original comment asked about steelmanning the claim that AGI is impossible. It would be useful to share the argument that you are referencing so that we can talk about it.

Post reply on HN