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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#261
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then we have Japan, which has spent 30+ years in the economic doldrums. What I'm saying is that these types of systems have "inertia" and can be exceptionally long lived in their 'bad' state, regardless of the policies used to try to get them out of that state.

No they enjoyed 30 years of stable prices and relative happiness. Government pushes a fiction prices must rise so everyone works harder.

Some people can’t comprehend that the graph can’t go up infinitely

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you're getting the karma for calling Harris a communist not for making the very normal observation that first past the post is a bad system Harris was promising to be tough on border and crime and to expand the military, she was basically a bush Republican

[flagged]

You should reexamine your media diet, because it has you believing absolutely insane things.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The good news is that these economic problems are entirely the result of bad policies and can be reversed. If we were to also raise broad based taxes, it would allow the Fed to cut interest rates, stoking long term investment, loosen up the housing market (which would allow more people to move), lower the Federal deficit, and improve the trade balance (as if that actually mattered).

It's much easier to destroy than build, and some things once destroyed can't be rebuilt. Trump's inconsistent tariff and policy flip flopping means no one trusts the US to behave rationally and predictably. The fact that the US population elected him a second time means that the US as a whole can't be trusted to behave like rational adults. Decades or centuries of reputation has been thrown away. That can't be change…

If a new face can reverse policy on a dime, then that reversal can be reversed a couple of years later.

It's amazing how few people seem to understand this. Countries are oil tankers, they take years to turn even a little - and that's a good thing. In 2000 the world broadly knew what was going to happen, Gore and BushII would implement pretty much the same policies. Same thing in 2008 when it was McCain and Obama.

Sure you get some minor tweaks to policies which don't really affect much in aggregate.

Even in 2016 Trump was unable to make massive changes, because the state is built to prevent that from happening. The US does not elect a monarch. Things take forever by design, and it's really frustrating when you want it, but it also means one person or one administration can't make a major impact, it takes a generation of pushing the overton window in the direction.

Once you break that, you have a jetski zipping around, then you can't rely on stability, it becomes riskier to invest than investing in a country with a dictator.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the trust in the US can be repaired for a very long time.

Yup. Even if Americans vote out the current administration, there’s no guarantee they won’t vote in another administration like this again. They’ve already done it twice.

> Yup. Even if Americans vote out the current administration […]

Reminder: Trump was re-elected. The first time could be considered an aberration, but the second time?

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#265
post #26

What I really fail to understand - how can departments like BLS screw up to this extent. Either they are grossly incompetent or they are intentionally corrupt. The data covers the period from March 2024 to March 2025 and trims the average monthly jobs gains seen during this period (roughly the last 10 months of Joe Biden's presidency and the first two months of Trump's) from a monthly average of 147,000 to about 71,0…

People who don't do statistics and don't understand how the BLS gets their data think there must be corruption when they correct previous reports. Think of it this way, if they correct their previous estimates with new data, isn't that a sign they are NOT corrupt? Why would a corrupt organization correct their previous reports?

I advise you to do a little reading on how these reports are corrected. People relying on them understand how they work. People freaking out about them don't.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you're getting the karma for calling Harris a communist not for making the very normal observation that first past the post is a bad system Harris was promising to be tough on border and crime and to expand the military, she was basically a bush Republican

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#267
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interest rates were wild in 1982. My dad said that no one would lend for a mortgage, and we ended up doing seller financing to buy my childhood home. Also, not enough people talk about housing prices in high interest rate environments. Mortgage payments are the thing that tether housing prices, and act as a lever. We see it today with just an extra 4% with low housing volume and people reluctant to sell, because…

I remember my parents being excited about the opportunity to refinance their mortgage to something in the high teens. And now these days headlines act like the apocalypse is occurring when mortgage rates are in the 6-7 range.

I'd rather owe 100k over 30 years at 15% than 300k at 4%.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#268
post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

There's a theory that changing regulation Q to uncap interest rates on savings accounts had more to do with ending stagflation than the fed funds rate hikes.

I'm not smart enough to fully evaluate if that's true, but it was an interesting theory to me at least.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/what-really-drives-inflation

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The good news is that these economic problems are entirely the result of bad policies and can be reversed. If we were to also raise broad based taxes, it would allow the Fed to cut interest rates, stoking long term investment, loosen up the housing market (which would allow more people to move), lower the Federal deficit, and improve the trade balance (as if that actually mattered).

It's much easier to destroy than build, and some things once destroyed can't be rebuilt. Trump's inconsistent tariff and policy flip flopping means no one trusts the US to behave rationally and predictably. The fact that the US population elected him a second time means that the US as a whole can't be trusted to behave like rational adults. Decades or centuries of reputation has been thrown away. That can't be change…

The media and political ecosystem that gave us an early dementia patient on one hand and trump on the other also bears blame.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#270
post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

Last administration cooked the books on BLS numbers for nearly 2 years, issuing corrections and all that nobody paid attention to. They also redefined what a recession is during the last administration. Wasn't a news story then, but is now b/c trump.

Until the end of 2024 the US had an economy the world envied.

At least, this allows Europe to rise, again.

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