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Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

chicagotribune.com

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Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#261

Post by arbor_day »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #196
arbor_day wrote: post #62

I own the farm and farm it in Illinois. I owe the land through an LLC, because farming is dangerous and I don't want to go bankrupt if somebody sues me. Farms are expensive and hard to subdivide, so people will put them into a legal entity and pass down to the next generation via a trust. All of my neighbors are doing the same, so we're all counted as "not farmers" here Farming is a terrible business. My few hundred…

I don’t know how to say this without seeming rude, but a few hundred acres is very small. 500 acres is less than a square mile. Is there something about your community that makes farms of that size more common than normal? Edit: my (extended) family has a farm, and they cultivate X0,000 acres every year, though they own far less. They do plant a larger area than most for their community, but they’re not planting 20x…

Yeah, it's sorta both big and small.

It's small in that you can't support a family farming 500 acres of corn/beans. It's big in that buying 500 acres would cost $5M - $10M, that's real money!

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#262

Post by arbor_day »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #107
arbor_day wrote: post #62

I own the farm and farm it in Illinois. I owe the land through an LLC, because farming is dangerous and I don't want to go bankrupt if somebody sues me. Farms are expensive and hard to subdivide, so people will put them into a legal entity and pass down to the next generation via a trust. All of my neighbors are doing the same, so we're all counted as "not farmers" here Farming is a terrible business. My few hundred…

Land does weather inflation quite a bit better than T bills do, though.

I find Illinois taxes to be scarier for land than other investments.

Illinois state is in a bad financial position, they can't inflate their way out of it. Financial assets are easier to move than land if things get bad.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#263

Post by ahmeneeroe-v2 »

Ericson2314 wrote: post #87
ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that better?

What are we trying to accomplish? I think: - Use arable land where it exists, not just where the cheapest labor is - Don't do deforestation or other such things I would like policies that directly address this: - Legal immigration fairly moves the people the arible land, rather than moving the farming to the cheap people. The goal would be in 200 years there is enough economic development and immigration that there i…

I don't want to play your utopia-seeking/political games (punishing "far-right-wingers" in Brazil is a huge lol).

Our current system produces a successful harvest (and surplus) for us every year, so I'm gonna stick with that.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#264

Post by pinkmuffinere »

arbor_day wrote: post #261
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know how to say this without seeming rude, but a few hundred acres is very small. 500 acres is less than a square mile. Is there something about your community that makes farms of that size more common than normal? Edit: my (extended) family has a farm, and they cultivate X0,000 acres every year, though they own far less. They do plant a larger area than most for their community, but they’re not planting 20x…

Yeah, it's sorta both big and small. It's small in that you can't support a family farming 500 acres of corn/beans. It's big in that buying 500 acres would cost $5M - $10M, that's real money!

If you don't mind me asking, how do you make it work for yourself? Are you single, so you don't need more? Or perhaps you're closer to a 'hobbyist' farmer? (although 500 acres is also well beyond a hobby haha)

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#265

Post by arbor_day »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #264
arbor_day wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's sorta both big and small. It's small in that you can't support a family farming 500 acres of corn/beans. It's big in that buying 500 acres would cost $5M - $10M, that's real money!

If you don't mind me asking, how do you make it work for yourself? Are you single, so you don't need more? Or perhaps you're closer to a 'hobbyist' farmer? (although 500 acres is also well beyond a hobby haha)

I've been a FAANG engineer for the last 15 years, tech pays pretty well. The things you see on the news about "farming subsidies" often show up as government subsidized loans (lower rates and higher leverage) which has helped.

It's somewhere between an extra job and a hobby. It's just touch for planting / harvest season -- lots of nights / weekends / day job PTO along with getting help from relatives.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#266

Post by pinkmuffinere »

arbor_day wrote: post #265
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't mind me asking, how do you make it work for yourself? Are you single, so you don't need more? Or perhaps you're closer to a 'hobbyist' farmer? (although 500 acres is also well beyond a hobby haha)

I've been a FAANG engineer for the last 15 years, tech pays pretty well. The things you see on the news about "farming subsidies" often show up as government subsidized loans (lower rates and higher leverage) which has helped. It's somewhere between an extra job and a hobby. It's just touch for planting / harvest season -- lots of nights / weekends / day job PTO along with getting help from relatives.

Oh wow, you're FAANG _and_ you're farming? lol that's impressive. I hope you make lots of jokes about how the F no longer stands for "Facebook", but rather "Farm" :)

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#267

Post by 9rx »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #248
9rx wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Farming is a terrible business. My few hundred acres (maybe worth $5M) will only churn out a few hundred grand in profit Well, it is ultimately a real estate business. The "hundred grand" in profit is really there only to support the mortgage payments — meaning that's what other farmers are counting on, so they're going to drive the prices down to that point. It is like a tech startup. You are counting on the asset…

What is the thesis for speculating on farm land? Theres no reason for me to think it will appreciate any faster than inflation because demand is stagnant.

> Theres no reason for me to think it will appreciate any faster than inflation because demand is stagnant.

It has in the past. I looked at a $1M (~$1.5M in today's dollars) farm 20 years ago. Couldn't figure out how to make it work at the time, sadly. Frankly, it seemed like complete insanity when I got into the numbers. But, today it would sell for ~$6-8M. About the same gains as the stock market over the same period, granted, but it's way easier to convince someone to loan you money for land than it is to buy stocks.

There may be no reason to think that will continue to happen into the future, but many are willing to place that bet.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#268

Post by ASalazarMX »

freeopinion wrote: post #119
ASalazarMX wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a use case where I think a current LLM shines. Ask it to summarize the important points of n papers, and slow read only the ones that pique your interest. It won't be perfect, but it will save you a ton of time while letting you focus on the things that need more attention.

I'm not anti-LLM even if the following statement sounds like it. I don't trust LLMs, even to summarize for me. I have to fact-check every single statement. For instance, if I ask ChatGPT, "Is PLA more dense than ABS?" it answers, "No, PLA is not more dense than ABS." Those are direct quotes. In the third paragraph, ChatGPT says, "So technically, PLA is denser than ABS, not less — I misspoke earlier." I find LLMs good…

It might surprise you, but copy-paste coders have always existed, LLMs are just making them more obvious, like "vibe coding". I don't use AI code assistants, but I can see why they could be valuable autocompleters in contexts where the user is knowledgeable.

It also makes me shudder to think of people who know just enough to compile and fix glaring mistakes, but largely trust the overall AI output. As if commercial software quality hasn't gone downhill enough these days.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#269

Post by toomuchtodo »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #255
toomuchtodo wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can have a wholesale originator (UWM) extend me credit for those use cases in ~15 minutes up to almost $1M at 7% (conforming, ready for sale into the ABS market), which is very reasonable imho. I can get up to $5M within a few days if it’s commercial through one of the commercial banks I work with (Wintrust). 80% LTV, most of the time. Guidelines are openly available at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and USDA websites (u…

This is news to me. Are you saying you can borrow money with the stated intention to speculate on future sale price, from the government no less? I have no experience with farmland, but for other purposes such as building hotels/retail/etc, you can't just get a loan for the land, you buy the land with cash and then get a construction loan to start development. I assumed you would have to at least need to have a plan…

One example:

https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/farm-loan-programs/farm-o...

100% financing government backed:

> Farm Ownership Loans offer up to 100 percent financing and are a valuable resource to help farmers and ranchers purchase or enlarge family farms, improve and expand current operations, increase agricultural productivity, and assist with land tenure to save farmland for future generations. With a maximum loan amount of $600,000 ($300,150 for Beginning Farmer Down Payment), all FSA Direct Farm Ownership Loans are financed and serviced by the Agency through local Farm Loan Officers and Farm Loan Managers. The funding comes from Congressional appropriations as part of the USDA budget.

As long as your intent was in good faith at time of origination, you’ve met the burden.

Re: Most Illinois farmland is not owned by farmers

#270

Post by cameron_b »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #248
9rx wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Farming is a terrible business. My few hundred acres (maybe worth $5M) will only churn out a few hundred grand in profit Well, it is ultimately a real estate business. The "hundred grand" in profit is really there only to support the mortgage payments — meaning that's what other farmers are counting on, so they're going to drive the prices down to that point. It is like a tech startup. You are counting on the asset…

What is the thesis for speculating on farm land? Theres no reason for me to think it will appreciate any faster than inflation because demand is stagnant.

"Agriculture use" is the zoning class of choice for developers to hold land out of town until the town gets there. They have to show some actual agricultural use, so they lease it to farmers or cut the pine trees, and in return they get the lowest tax value for holding the land.

Then when they want to cash it in, they rezone it to commercial or residential and build on it.

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