"Just because the risk of a crime is zero, that doesn’t mean that a criminal will engage in that crime. If that were the case, thieves would go about stealing dandelions and day-old newspapers"
Now, that's classic.
What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
261–270 of 356 posts
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
dmm's point was made by several people in the comments thread for the very article you cite, some of them quoting statistics: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3691372 tl;dr: In the U.S. in only 20% of murder cases the perpetrator is found and convicted of murder, compared with (allegedly) 90% in Japan. At the same time, even if all non-violent offenders (that includes all drug offenses) were released from prisons…
Going from 7 times Europe's rate to double Europe's rate is still pretty significant. On your second link, the first half is reasonable, but the second half utterly misses the point. The reason why the police wait in 'The Wire' and in real life is because they're gathering evidence. If they don't have enough evidence, the case won't stick. Similarly, they're trying to catch the kingpins. If you catch the front-line d…
You still haven't shown that overincarceration is actually a problem in any meaningful sense. The solution could just as easily be to open more courts.
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surely that's an over simplistic view? The real answer to your first sentence is clearly "people need to commit less crime". I would suggest there's a lot of evidence showing that the threat of prison isn't deterring crime at least amongst some demographics. Do you really think greater risk of prison is going to stop bike theft by crackheads? Or homeless? Or the poor? It's quite possible that fixing some of the socia…
> It's quite possible that fixing some of the social problems would be a way more powerful motivator to stop bike theft I want to live in a society free of crime. Where children and other vulnerable people move free from violence and theft. Is that unreasonable?
>Is that unreasonable?
No it's not unreasonable to want that, but it's probably a bit ridiculous to believe it will ever happen. And it's definitely ridiculous to believe we're going to get there by just locking more people up.
America has 5% of the world's population, but nearly 25% of the world's prisoners--do you really think we need to increase that. Over 3% of adults are under some kind of correctional supervision--where do we stop?
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#264When I was a kid (GET OFF MY LAWN!!!) We used to be able to register our bikes with the police department. They'd stamp a registration number onto the frame of the bike using lettered taps and a hammer. The only way to take off the registration is to either file it down or cover it over, in either case a clear indication the bike is stolen. I got a bike stolen 3 times. Twice I got one back when the police found it (o…
That's still how they do it in Japan. Registration is mandatory for all bicycles. From what I hear you need to bring proof when there's a transfer of ownership, etc.
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
Care to back that up? Does the US really have that much more crime that justifies locking up more people? Recent stuff I've read on this agrees with Cass ( http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/atlarge/2012/01/30/120... ).
I don't give a damn about statistics. I want to be able to live anywhere in the US safely. Would you allow your 6yo to walk alone at night through any city in the US? I think you should be able to. I think a person should be able to live anywhere in the US without encountering violence on a daily basis, without hearing gunshots every night. Because that isn't true, I think there is too much crime.
There is a solution. A totalitarian police state with no privacy and draconian punishments.
Increased incarceration and police powers reach an eventual point of diminishing returns.
Do you know what the likelihood of a 6 year old being abducted or killed by a stranger are? Do a google search and you'll probably be surprised by how uncommon it is. Fewer children are abducted in the classic "stranger danger" manner (unknown attacker as opposed to a friend or family member) than are struck by lightning each year.
If we can save 10 6 year olds per year, is it worth incarcerating 100 extra people, 1000, 10,000...1,000,000? At what point does the increased risk of snaring innocent people, and the financial cost outweigh the small gains in "safety"?
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surely that's an over simplistic view? The real answer to your first sentence is clearly "people need to commit less crime". I would suggest there's a lot of evidence showing that the threat of prison isn't deterring crime at least amongst some demographics. Do you really think greater risk of prison is going to stop bike theft by crackheads? Or homeless? Or the poor? It's quite possible that fixing some of the socia…
> It's quite possible that fixing some of the social problems would be a way more powerful motivator to stop bike theft I want to live in a society free of crime. Where children and other vulnerable people move free from violence and theft. Is that unreasonable?
No, I think everybody agrees with you there.
What I'm questioning is your proposed method of achieving that - putting more people in prison - is it likely to help?
Does anybody seriously think that the threat of prison is deterring people from committing drug-related crime? Do you suppose a typical homeless person considers risking being put in jail for stealing to eat to be a significantly worse option than sleeping hungry and cold under a freeway overpass?
Wikipedia has some quite alarming numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_St... - one in every 31 adults, one in every 11 African-Americans " behind bars, or being monitored (probation and parole)". Surely that's pretty clear evidence that the problems leading people into committing crimes are significantly more powerful than the deterrent of prison time?
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bike theft seems like one of those quality-of-life crimes (like graffiti and coercive squeegee-monkeys) that's begging for some kind of creative enforcement strategy. Or just plain old boring regular enforcement, like Germany and Japan have, which is how they end up with a far lower crime rate than the US or the UK for example. (They also have a better social safety net, that's part of their low crime rates too.)
Having had two regular bicycles stolen over ten years in Tokyo, I would disagree that the problem is non-existent in Japan, though street crime is indeed relatively rare. Bicycles are commonly used by the majority of people. Authorities need staff dedicated to keeping streets near stations from getting clogged up with secured bikes. An unsecured bicycle near a station might be used as a free ride home by a drunken sa…
I don't think being in financial dire straits is usually a reason for people to turn to crime anywhere in the world. Usually the "conversion" to criminal activities happens before they reach financial issues. The whole link between unemployment crime does not make sense in most cases. There are many ways to survive before resorting to crime.
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#268What happens to stolen bicycles? Seriously, what happens to them? This article doesn't begin to address the question within the first paragraph, and if they can't format their article properly I can't justify spending time reading it.
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
Going from 7 times Europe's rate to double Europe's rate is still pretty significant. On your second link, the first half is reasonable, but the second half utterly misses the point. The reason why the police wait in 'The Wire' and in real life is because they're gathering evidence. If they don't have enough evidence, the case won't stick. Similarly, they're trying to catch the kingpins. If you catch the front-line d…
You still haven't shown that overincarceration is actually a problem in any meaningful sense. The solution could just as easily be to open more courts.
There already is too little money for courts (and the prisons the subsequent influx of prisoners are going to need), so where is it going to come from?
It's pointless, really, because if you honestly don't think that overincarceration is 'actually a problem', then you're so one-eyed that nothing I say will sway you.
Re: What Happens to Stolen Bicycles?
#270With crimes which are lightly prosecuted, I wonder if having infrequent but very high severity punishment works comparably to having consistent but moderate punishment.
In China, they do "Strike Hard" campaigns, where crimes which might normally be gross misdemeanor level (shoplifting, assault) are punished far more severely (sometimes by execution).
This might be a way to raise the expected cost of committing the crime, while not raising the cost of anti-crime enforcement that much.