AI scaring students away from the software field and simultaneously making it hard for new developers to learn (because its too temping to click a button rather than struggle for 30 minutes) could be balancing out some job losses as well
Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
261–270 of 503 posts
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#262I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…
I don't trust what anyone says in this space because there is so much money to be made (by a fraction of people) if AI lives up to its promise, and money to be made to those who claim that AI is "bullshit".
The only thing I can remotely trust is my own experience. Recently, I decided to have some business cards made, which I haven't done in probably 15 years. A few years ago, I would have either hired someone on Fiverr to design my business card or pay for a premade template. Instead, I told Sora to design me a business card, and it gave me a good design the first time; it even immediately updated it with my Instagram link when I asked it to.
I'm sorry, but I fail to see how AI, as we now know it, doesn't take the wind out of the sails of certain kinds of jobs.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#263I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…
Similairly, while not perfect I use AI to help redesign my landscaping by uploading a picture of my yard and having it come up with different options. Also took a picture of my tire while at the garage and asked it if I really needed new tires or not. Took a picture of my sprinkler box and had it figure out what was going on. Potentially all situations where I would’ve paid (or paid more than I already was) a local l…
For the tire you can also use a penny. If you stick the penny in the tread with Liconln’s head down and his hair isn’t covered, then you need new tires. No AI. ;)
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#264I think if we go into a sharp recession companies will use this as an excuse to replace workers with other workers that effectively use AI cutting down on overhead. It just seems obvious this will happen. I don't think it's the doom and gloom scenario, but many CEOs, etc are chomping at the bit.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#265I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…
I use it everyday to an extent that I’ve come to depend on it.
For copywriting, analyzing contracts, exploring my business domain, etc etc. Each of those tasks would have required me to consult with an expert a few years ago. Not anymore.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#266I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…
I don't trust what anyone says in this space because there is so much money to be made (by a fraction of people) if AI lives up to its promise, and money to be made to those who claim that AI is "bullshit". The only thing I can remotely trust is my own experience. Recently, I decided to have some business cards made, which I haven't done in probably 15 years. A few years ago, I would have either hired someone on Five…
But didn't we have business card template programs, and even free suggested business card designs from the companies that sell business cards, almost immediately after they opened for business on the internet?
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#267Have any of these economists ever tried to scrape by as an entry-level graphic designer/illustrator? Apparently not, since the sort of specific work which one used to find for this has all but vanished --- every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not (ditto for stock images, but that's a different conversation).
> every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not This is not at all true. Some percentage of AI generated images might have become a contract, but that percentage is vanishingly small. Most AI generated images you see out there are just shared casually between friends. Another sizable chunk are useless filler in a casual blog post and the author w…
There is more to entry-level illustrators than SEO posts. In my daily life I've witnessed a bakery, an aspiring writer of children's books, and two University departments go for self-made AI pictures instead of hiring an illustrator. Those jobs would have definitely gone to a local illustrator.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#268I think it's time for OpenAI to release an AI economist.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#269I humbly disagree. I've seen team members and sometimes entire teams being laid off because of AI. It's also not just layoffs, the hiring processes and demand have been affected as well. As an example, many companies have recently shifted their support to "AI first" models. As a result, even if the team or certain team members haven't been fired, the general trend of hiring for support is pretty much down (anecdotal)…
> I humbly disagree
Both your experience and what the article (research) says can be valid at the same time. That’s how statistics works.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#270I think the methods here are highly questionable, and appear to be based on self report from a small amount of employees in Denmark 1 year ago.
The overall rate of participation in the labor work force is falling. I expect this trend to continue as AI makes the economy more and more dynamic and sets a higher and higher bar for participation.
Overall GDP is rising while labor participation rate is falling. This clearly points to more productivity with fewer people participating. At this point one of the main factors is clearly technological advancement, and within that I believe if you were to make a survey of CEOS and ask what technological change has allowed them to get more done with fewer people, the resounding consensus would definitely be AI