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It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

theatlantic.com

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Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to read a solid exposé of Worldcoin, but I don’t think I will get that from Buzzfeed or from The Atlantic. Both seemed to be agenda driven and hot headed. I’d like a more impartial breakdown ala AP-style news reporting.

[flagged]

The Atlantic is run by Jeffrey Goldberg and owned by Laurene Powell Jobs.

Of course these people have agendas, it’s not exactly a secret.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's go with the no next gen models, then we'd be looking at an operationalized service. I might be up for paying $20/month for one. Certainly more value than I get from Netflix. All I would want from the service is a simple low-friction UI and continued improvements to keep up with or surpass competitors. They could manage that. The long-term problem may be access to quality/human-created training data. Especially…

I doubt $20 a month is going to cover it. How much would you.pay before you weren't getting a good deal?

If we’re talking about inference costs alone (minimal new training) I think it would cover it. I started doing usage-based pricing through openrouter instead of paying monthly subscriptions, and my modest LLM use costs me about $3/month. Unless you think that the API rates are also priced below cost.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#263
post #76

well the good news is all that stuff comes with an expiration date, after which we will know if this is our new destiny or yet another cloud of smoke. This is a good reminder: > Prominent AI figures were among the thousands of people who signed an open letter in March 2023 to urge a six-month pause in the development of large language models (LLMs) so that humanity would have time to address the social consequences o…

“robotaxis are still almost here, just around the corner, as always” We have them in San Francisco now (and Los Angeles and Phoenix, and Austin soon.)

Waymo is at the threshold of how speech recognition reached a tipping point through decades of grinding effort. I worked on speech recognition applications in the '80s when the best of it was just barely usable for carefully crafted use cases. Now taxis can be automated well enough if you have the right sensor suite and an exquisitely mapped environment. Waymo can do this for 0.05% of ride hailing riders, if 28M Ubers per day and 100k Waymos per week are reasonably accurate. This is like when connected speech started working with a good mic in a quiet environment. Now automated multi-speaker transcription with background noise, crosstalk, and whatever mic you got works. Back in the day some serious people were convinced speech recognition on that level would be impossible without solving AGI.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's go with the no next gen models, then we'd be looking at an operationalized service. I might be up for paying $20/month for one. Certainly more value than I get from Netflix. All I would want from the service is a simple low-friction UI and continued improvements to keep up with or surpass competitors. They could manage that. The long-term problem may be access to quality/human-created training data. Especially…

I doubt $20 a month is going to cover it. How much would you.pay before you weren't getting a good deal?

The thing is, you can be economical. You don't need a GPT-4 quality model for everything. Some things are just low value where a 3.5 model would do just fine.

I never use the $20 plan but I access everything via API and i spend a couple of dollars per month.

Although lately I have a home server that can do llama 3.1 8b uncensored and that actually works amazingly well.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#265

> At a high enough level of abstraction, Altman’s entire job is to keep us all fixated on an imagined AI future I think the job of a CEO is not to tell you the truth, and the truth is probably more often than not, the opposite. What if gpt5 is vaporware, and there’s no equivalent 3 to 4 leap to be realized with current deep learning architectures? What is OpenAI worth then?

Funnily I came across an interview from around 5 years ago where he straight up admitted that he had no clue how to generate a return on investment back then (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzcJlKg2Rc0&t=1920s)

"We have no current plans to make revenue."

"We have no idea how we may one day generate revenue."

"We have made a soft promise to investors that once we've built a general intelligence system, basically we will ask it to figure out a way to generate an investment return for you."

The fact he has no clue how to generate revenue with an AGI without asking it, shows his lack of imagination.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your post is a good summarization of what I believe as well. But what's interesting when I speak to laymen is that the hype in the general public seems specifically centered on the composite solution that is ChatGPT. That's what they consider 'AI'. That specific conversational format in a web browser, as a complete product. That is the manifestation of AI they believe everyone thinks could become dangerous. They don'…

I think people think* of ChatGPT not as the web UI, but as some mysterious, possibly thinking, machine which sits behind the web UI. That is, it is clear that there’s “something” behind the curtain, and there’s some concern maybe that it could get out, but there isn’t really clarity on where the thing stops and the curtain begins, or anything like that. This is more magical, but probably less wrong, than just thinkin…

An LLM is not going to go skynet. It's not smart enough and can't take initiative.

An AGI however could. Once it reaches IQs of more than say 500 it would become very hard to control it.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#267
I keep thinking about Sam Altman’s March ’23 interview on Lex Fridman’s podcast—this was after GPT-4’s release and before he was ousted as CEO. Two things he said really stuck with me:

First, he mentioned wishing he was more into AI. While I appreciate the honesty, it was pretty off-putting. Here’s the CEO of a company building arguably the most consequential technology of our time, and he’s expressing apathy? That bugs me. Sure, having a dispassionate leader might have its advantages, but overall, his lack of enthusiasm left a bad taste in my mouth. Why IS he the CEO then?

Second, he talked about going on a “world tour” to meet ChatGPT users and get their feedback. He actually mentioned meeting them in pubs, etc. That just sounded like complete BS. It felt like politician-level insincerity—I highly doubt he’s spoken with any end-users in a meaningful way.

And one more thing: Altman being a well-known ‘prepper’ doesn’t sit well with me. No offense to preppers, but it gives me the impression he’s not entirely invested in civilization’s long-term prospects. Fine for a private citizen, but not exactly reassuring for the guy leading an organization that could accelerate its collapse.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#269

A bit of a "dog bites man" story to note that a CEO of a hot company is hyping the future beyond reason. The real story of LLMs is revealed when you posit a magical technology that can print any car part for free. How would the car industry change if someone made a 3D printer that could make any part, including custom parts, with just electricity and air? It is a sea change to manufacturers and distributors, but ther…

> The real story of LLMs is revealed when you posit a magical technology that can print any car part for free.

I think the insight is that some people truly believe that LLMs would be exactly as groundbreaking as a magical 3D printer that prints out any part for free.

And they're pumping AI madly because of this belief.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a really good comment and insight, but understandably I think it is aimed at this forum and a technical audience. It landed well for me in terms of the near team impact of LLMs and other models. But outside this forum, I think our field is in a crisis from being very substantially oversold and undersold at the same time. We have a very limited ability to define human intelligence, so it is almost impossible to…

LLMs aren't really simulating intelligence so much as echoing intelligence. The problem is when the hype machine causes the echoes to replace the original intelligence that spawned the echoes, and eventually those echoes fade into background noise and we have to rebuild the original human intelligence again.

Yes, basically this phenomenon: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07566-y
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