Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not sustainable. Solar panel producers are going to be in big trouble in 8-10 years I think.
This is a controversial hypothesis that is merely from a idiot, being myself. I don't truly believe this but it something I have throught about. Energy costs are THE driving force of prices. The cost of materials is essentially the energy it takes to squire/process/ship them. If energy was free, we would just dig up random patches of dirt and sift it for every material we wanted even in trace amounts. But its not bec…
Batteries: How cheap can they get?
261–270 of 311 posts
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
> an issue mostly with lithium based systems. Things like Iron or sodium based are much safer The iron battery you are thinking of is a lithium battery. It is not the lithium that is a fire risk; lithium ion batteries do not contain metallic lithium. In an LFP battery the phosphate-oxide bond is much more stable and not subject to thermal runaway compared with e.g. cobalt-oxide.
That sounds much better than the dribble I was spouting. Thanks!
There's also someone building a factory to make iron-air batteries for grid storage. They're way cheaper than lithium or even sodium, with one of the most common materials on the planet, but only about 50% efficient. They're too heavy for vehicles, and have lower power output so aren't much good as peakers, but if you want four days of grid backup like we'd need with a 100% wind/solar grid, they're great.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't there a distinction between the house wiring and the solar/battery stuff? P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie.
> P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie. I'm surprised to find out it's aussie slang; I always thought it was slang local to South Africa :-/
It's local to UK and more recent British colonies
ZA and AUS included. USA less so.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
Solar panels are mildly more efficient when colder, the same latitude in an area with similar cloud cover in north America is probably generally slightly better for solar than Europe because it is colder, not sure if it would ever be more than a rounding error though.
I’ve been in northern France for a couple weeks in a January and didn’t see the sun once… Not really a thing in Toronto.
Solar panels don’t need sunshine they need light.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a controversial hypothesis that is merely from a idiot, being myself. I don't truly believe this but it something I have throught about. Energy costs are THE driving force of prices. The cost of materials is essentially the energy it takes to squire/process/ship them. If energy was free, we would just dig up random patches of dirt and sift it for every material we wanted even in trace amounts. But its not bec…
I've read some heretic economists that say that instead what orthodox economists claim that energy contributes 10% to GDP it's much higher closer to 100%. You get outside economics into accounting and as you chase the supply costs down you run into energy and scarce resources as the driver of cost. Maybe 20 years ago I had the thought that ever never was enough supply of fossil fuels to lift the remaining 2/3rds of h…
Everything society does is aimed at (locally) reducing entropy, and energy is the only way to do that.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#266> If we start with 2410 GWh in 2023 and grow with 59% per year that gives us 61.917 GWh in 2030. That would mean almost exactly 8 doublings in 2030. There's an order of magnitude error here. That's an increase of about 26x. 8 doublings would require an increase of 256x. Now, anyone can make a simple math error. But, like, it should be totally obvious to anyone that 7 years of 60% annual growth can't possibly be anywh…
I think the unit is off. Starting from 2410 GWh & a compound increase of 59% per year gives us: 61,915 GWh (2410 * 1.59^7) which is about 61.915 TWh. So perhaps the author meant 61.915 TWh instead of GWh. No way is this in anyway close to 8 doublings though. That would take 12 years or by 2035. (1.59^12 = 261x)
I think it's rather that they're using the dot as a thousand separator, not as a decimal separator.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#267Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…
Sounds great, but are there actual businesses who will come to your home and do an install, or do you need to to become a mad-scientist electrician and DIY? I got quotes on getting an LG system a few years ago and it was 4X these prices (also for me a problem is that my 'ancient' panels from 2013 use a single inverter instead of microinverters, so if I touch the system I have to replace it all). I keep hoping there w…
You might need to DIY, but "mad scientist" is doing a lot of work in your statement that I don't think applies. You just need to follow some very-thoroughly-detailed online tutorials. It's one of those things like baking, where as long as you're good at faithfully following directions, everything turns out great.
> I keep hoping there will be a bunch of small businesses electrifying everything
There are a few of these per large city; but they serve companies with large budgets for "becoming carbon negative", not residences trying to do things cost-effectively to lower their electric bills.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#268He projects (at current growth and experience rates) that battery cells will reach $8/kWh by 2030. Wow!
But with several math errors, which make him off by a decade. He multiplies by 1.59 annually and gets a 25X increase in total battery in seven years. That actually takes eight years, but whatever. Then he says that's eight doublings, but eight doublings is a 256X increase. That would take nine years at 100% annually (first year to go from 1 to 2, then 2^8=256). But we only have a 59% annual increase so getting to 256…
> He multiplies by 1.59 annually and gets a 25X increase in total battery in seven years. That actually takes eight years, but whatever.
(1.59)^7 = 25.69
But yeah, not eight doublings. I guess we'll have to wait another four years then :).
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
To the extent that have been expert estimates out there, they do have been consistently wrong. The same happens to solar and wind generation. But well, I haven't seen any that don't have a conflict of interest into claiming fossil fuels will continue to be required. And that's a large part of the problem: you just won't find uninterested experts publishing estimates.
Well the other issue though is that people looking for predictions want conservative predictions because they're investing. Over-estimate and you lose money, under-estimate and you leave money on the table but don't trade away future possible gains.
Hum... People investing in renewables and batteries do not use predictions. Those have at most some 3 years of building time, usually a few months.
People investing in fossil fuel plants need predictions, and despite they wanting to see conservative numbers, that bias means complete doom for them. They need the opposite bias if they want to survive.
Things get a lot more complex once you start to look at components industries. But then, it's not clear they use predictions for anything.
Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sounds great, but are there actual businesses who will come to your home and do an install, or do you need to to become a mad-scientist electrician and DIY? I got quotes on getting an LG system a few years ago and it was 4X these prices (also for me a problem is that my 'ancient' panels from 2013 use a single inverter instead of microinverters, so if I touch the system I have to replace it all). I keep hoping there w…
You might need to DIY, but "mad scientist" is doing a lot of work in your statement that I don't think applies. You just need to follow some very-thoroughly-detailed online tutorials. It's one of those things like baking, where as long as you're good at faithfully following directions, everything turns out great. > I keep hoping there will be a bunch of small businesses electrifying everything There are a few of thes…
I really like the baking analogy! I've installed a set of 10 PV panels with full electric installation including optimizers myself, and in fact the hardest part is finding out which mechanical adaptor parts fits your type of roof, which screws to use etc. The rest is following recipes indeed.