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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

tomverbeure.github.io

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#261

Post by DennisP »

deng wrote: post #193
DennisP wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD already understands some human gestures, and it learns this stuff by seeing how human drivers do things. Understanding a headlight flash doesn't seem like a big ask. And recently, the biggest complain from FSD users was that it drove a little too aggressively. Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while. Then people freaked out and pretended that was super unsafe, and th…

But that's exactly the point: there's no general rule for this kind of thing, it depends on the concrete situation. There are definitely stop signs where you need to do a full stop because you cannot see any oncoming traffic. Basically: it's OK to do rolling stops until it isn't. Same goes for flashing headlights, these can mean different things, depending on the situation. It can mean: I see you, feel free to drive.…

Learning that sort of context is what neural nets are good at. The whole point is that none of this is hardcoded; the AI just learns what humans do in similar situations. At the point they're not even hand-labeling anything. The only input is video.

Flashing headlights can be ambiguous for humans too. There have been plenty of times when someone flashed lights at me and I had no idea why.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#262

Post by DennisP »

pas wrote: post #206
DennisP wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not enough for robotaxis yet, and Tesla doesn't claim that it is. They just think they'll get there. What they do claim is that with human supervision, it lowers the accident rate to one per 5.5 million miles, which is a lot better than the overall accident rate for all cars on the road. And unlike Waymo, it works everywhere. That's worthwhile even if it never improves from here. Fwiw you can take your hands off…

> it works everywhere. where there's enough bandwidth > you just have to watch the road ... and then react in a split second, or what? it's simpler to say goodbyes before the trip. > They just think they'll get there. of course. I think too. eventually they'll hire the receptionist from Waymo and he/she will tell them to build a fucking world model that has some object permanence.

There's no bandwidth requirement, it runs locally on the car.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#263

Post by tzs »

iknowstuff wrote: post #20
Shank wrote: post #19

This pretty much jibes with my experience. Autopilot has phantom breaking still, but navigate-on-autopilot feels more predictable on the freeway and more useful than FSD. The fact that v12 has “exited beta” and is now the “Supervised” mode doesn’t give me confidence right now. The iterative progress it went through during the beta was really good — I felt that each point release was getting closer to a polished syste…

FSD 12 is not used on freeways. City streets only. You’re observing behavior of the old stack if you’re seeing notices for lane change reasoning. They’ll be unifying it later this year.

Why are they doing it that way?

I'd have expected things like that to roll out on freeways first and later come to city streets, because freeways should be an easier case since you don't have oncoming traffic, cross traffic, pedestrians, bicycles, and traffic lights to deal with.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#264

Post by nativeit »

rayiner wrote: post #248
pas wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as GME, that trump social thing, et al. already showed it a couple of times fundamentals don't matter. Tesla is held by folks who either don't care (ETFs, institutions, hedge funds, blablabla) or Elondong lovers.

You can’t half a half trillion market cap with a fanboy stock.

That’s why the litany of apathetic institutional investors are listed first.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#265

Post by maxerickson »

xyst wrote: post #146

Self driving cars in general are a useless technology demo. Not just TSLA (although more so because of the repeated false claims). It’s a way for the car industry to fight against their extinction. In the beginning the argument was: “it’s not the cars killing people, it’s the damn ‘jay walkers’ (term invented by auto industry, btw). Get those people off the road and cram them into the sides of the streets so my fat c…

In recent years, people have been realizing how car centric transportation cannot scale (ie, induced demand); and is an environmental disaster.

In the US, I'm pretty sure a significant majority of people are more or less all in on a car centric lifestyle. That doesn't mean it can't change, but I sure don't think it has meaningfully started to change.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#266

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

Laremere wrote: post #87
nomilk wrote: post #83

The article answers the wrong question of 'is FSD perfect?'. A better question is whether it's 'cost-benefit positive'. That's all that matters when users decide whether or not to use something. If FSD reduces fatigue and allows you to arrive to work fresher, it might be worth tolerating the odd wrong turn extending the drive time by 2 minutes.

The conclusion addresses your point: > Without FSD, you pay attention to the road and everything else is within your control. With FSD, you still need to pay attention but now there’s the additional cognitive load to monitor an unpredictable system over which you don’t have direct control. For the author, FSD is a worse experience in addition to costing a lot of money.

I disagree with the author. I have a Comma 3x and use a fork of openpilot.

It's comparable to tesla but not as good overall. It 100% reduces my cognitive load and definitely reduces fatigue. There is no question.

Also, I paid only ~$1500.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#267

Post by lolc »

aurareturn wrote: post #258
blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? Waymo works in limited places and relies on a ridiculous number of sensors. Have you seen one in real life with all its equipment? Surely that makes it less advanced or at less ambitious. Assuming something malicious about Nvidia’s CEO seems like a big leap.

I've always wondered why adding more sensors to a self driving car was such a big deal. Yes, it makes the cars more expensive but at some point, these parts will get mass produced and they will be cheap as hell. The more data a car has, the better it should drive.

Once you add sensors you can't promise buyers that their car with less sensors will be just as self driving as the car with more sensors. So adding sensors is a big deal for Tesla, because they are in the market of selling a promise of self driving.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#268

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

red75prime wrote: post #137
tsimionescu wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that the old FSD stack that, starting with 2018, has been "ready for fully autonomous driving where you can take a nap by this time next year", according to the CEO of the company? Why are people still hopeful for Tesla FSD when other companies are so, so far ahead already?

Which ones? Waymo is geolocked. Mercedes' Drive Pilot is a glorified lane assist. Cruise is suspended. Who else?

There is still Comma 3X with openpilot. I use it and it's pretty good.

For the price it's very good.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#269

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

rayiner wrote: post #246

> I’ve had a Model Y for more than 3 years now, well before Elon revealed himself as the kind of person he really is, and I’ve been happy with it Logical fallacy in the second paragraph. Doesn’t bode well.

It's almost impossible to have a rational discussion of anything Tesla now. The words Tesla and Elon bring far too much toxicity.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#270

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

mft_ wrote: post #43
html5cat wrote: post #16

My car is old enough to not have adaptive cruise control and lane centering, but that's all I'd love to have for now. Well executed, it's such a joy on a highway or in traffic. Jeep and others have it but drive like a bowling ball with guardrails up. Has anyone here successfully retrofitted Audi a4 with ACC? I hear Cruise started like that, would be awesome to get a kit like that.

Check out comma.ai - it may fit your car.

https://github.com/commaai/openpilot/blob/master/docs/CARS.m...
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