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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

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261–270 of 415 posts

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#261
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Phoenix has the perfect climate for self-driving cars. It will require a major technological leap in order for them to succeed in the "real world" (fog, rain, snow, etc).

Disclosure: I work for Waymo. We handle both dense fog and heavy rain on the latest vehicles. The best blog post is probably https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ but you can find a lot of videos in the rain. Snow and very cold weather is a challenge for sensor cleaning. We've done some testing in both NYC and Buffalo ( https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-count... ) to collect data.

I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software.

Winter here changes daily between

- no road lines visible

- snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern

- snow is fresh/deep so no road is visible and you navigate based on the slight hump in the snow where you know there's a curb

- same as above, but instead of a curb a slight indent where there's a ditch

- slush piles outside the tire lanes, which if hit will suck you in or cause you to spin out

- ice/snow on hills, so time your arrival for rolling stops at intersections because stopping is not an option

- active snowfall (limited camera vision, and I'm guessing reduced/useless signal from lidar)

- hail

- sporadic black ice (its easy to slow down when its icy everywhere, but knowing when and where black ice is likely when it's sporadic is a skill)

- the "lanes" formed by peoples tires in the snow often don't align with the official road, and sometimes a lane goes missing in this situation

And all that's after you deal with sensor cleaning.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with kids... What if there is? The presence of dried Semen on a seat on which my kids sit will have zero negative impact on them. At all. Is it Yuck? Yes of course. But it also seems extremely unlikely. And it's a lot less Yuck than thinking about what's in the sand in public playgrounds that all kids visit constantly. And while I have a reasonable chance of preventing them from licking the seats, I have n…

> This is just a bizarre irrational worry... Do you and your kids take public transport regularly? In a failing city/society, that is. Because if the answer is "yes, I do take public transport in a city that struggles to pay its bills and I still don't care that the chairs have weird organic substances on them" then fair-play to you, but for me personally at some point I had to purchase a personal car (when I was alr…

I also shake strangers hands and eat food made by teenagers and use public bathrooms and pet cats and sleep in hotel rooms. My children (if/when they occur) will attend daycare and school with other sacks of disease and share the spoils with me, as is tradition. Our society is dirty.

Do you avoid handrails and sanitize the doorknobs and gas pumps you interact with? Those are going to be far worse than subway chairs. It's probably not a bad idea, but it's a bit beyond what I suspect most people consider normal. I had a friend who lived like that, and he ended up being diagnosed with OCD.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#263
post #260
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I find it hard to believe that the Tesla and Auto Manufacturer positions aren’t knowingly deceptive. The auto manufacturer approach is also showing progress. In CA and NV you can buy and operate a Mercedes with Drive Pilot, which is Level 3 certified. In the right (very restrictive conditions which essentially come down to "sitting in highway traffic on your commute") you legally do not have to pay attention to the…

That 'level 3' is still basically lane keeping and auto cruise control, the driver still has to be ready to immediately takeover, if you don't the car will stop in it's current lane with it's blinkers on. This is about the peak of what you can get with automated lane keeping and braking. I don't see any route from this point to anything like level 4.

"Immediately" can mean a bunch of different things in a driving context! Here it means "within ten seconds". Which is both short and long: it's long enough that many of the things you might want to do that take your attention are fine (reading, watching a movie, working) but not long enough that you can sleep.

> This is about the peak of what you can get with automated lane keeping and braking.

Are you saying that within 5y, say, we won't see a level three system that's able to handle full highway speeds?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#264
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The olfactory problem with waymos is that if someone gets in one dirty or foul smelling there isn't a driver to kick them out. Waymos are starting to get more ridership and some of those people are going to be absolute pigs. I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass and the best case scenario there is that they took the car out of rotation immediately, the ride…

> I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass Knowing BigCo reputation, I think it’s equally possible that Waymo and/or BigCo accounts will be banned for actual perp, complainant or random rider in-between… what a world…

Wouldn't take long before that gets abused I bet. I'm picturing a world where someone knows their ex uses Waymo to get home every day so requests rides around that time/place so they can report them as odorous/damaged/vomit/etc and get the prior rider banned.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time I live in a big city (larger population than Phoenix) in the Uk and I've never even seen a self-driving car. Anywhere. I don't even think such a thing exists on public roads in my country. That Gibson quote about the future not being evenly distributed, etc. Just a da…

> I live in a big city (larger population than Phoenix) in the Uk That’s an interesting way of saying you live in London ;) (Phoenix urban area is more populous than every urban area in the UK except for London)

Manchester not London.

According to Kagi the population of Greater Manchester is 2.8 million vs 1.61 for Phoenix.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#266
post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

Lol Tesla has made significant progress and doesn't show much sign of slowing down. There's no reason to think there approach can't work at this point. People go weeks without intervention.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#267
post #107

This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…

I think a lot of people have uncritically been repeating Waymo's marketing talking points for so long they've started mistaking it for "consensus" or even worse "truth". Waymo's tech is impressive and it works, but that doesn't mean it is the only way to make it work. The Tesla/Waymo approaches are far far more alike than they are different, so the whole debate is about very little. The question of Camera vs LIDAR+Ca…

Camera vs Lidar+Camera is not a narrow question. Cameras lack sufficient dynamic range to work in many situations, and therefore cannot alone be used for a real self-driving solution where the driver naps.

Your example of needing to read a stop sign isn't a great example. At least in North America, a hexagonal sign is always a stop sign. A better example of your point would be a speed limit sign.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the really fantastic ones will be excellent for years and years, and then one day they're slightly sleepy.

And that one day they will take the taxi. Averages don't work for risk evaluation.

Except for when they don't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humboldt_Broncos_bus_crash

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#269
post #3

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many…

I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few time…

why are we tipping uber drivers?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think OP means remotely control the car.

The problem is that you can't "remotely control the car". If you have the same level of access as Waymo's actual humans you can suggest to a Waymo driver (ie the machine) hey, the way to resolve this situation you are in might be to inch forward into this position - and maybe in some cases you can trick it into causing harm this way. However I'd guess in the vast majority of cases all you do is trap it so that it get…

> The problem is that you can't "remotely control the car".

The assumption is that the highly networked car has some kind of security vulnerability that allows malicious users to take control and perform acts of terror.

Since this is in software, the attacker can theoretically scale the attack to involve all cars on the road with the same vulnerabilities, which could be millions of vehicles.

This problem is not unique to self driving cars - just any highly networked car with software control of key systems, like a modern Tesla. However, a full self driving car may not manual overrides that allow the passenger to stop the vehicle.

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